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基于Dyna-CLUE改进模型的岷江上游地区城镇扩张模拟
Alternative TitleThe simulation of urban expansion in the upper reaches of Minjiang river based on the modified Dyna-CLUE model
Language中文
严冬
Thesis Advisor李爱农
2015
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name硕士
Degree Discipline地图学与地理信息系统
Keyword山区城镇 岷江上游地区 城镇用地情景模拟 Sd模型 Dyna-clue改进模型
Abstract改革开放以来,中国城镇化进程迅猛推进,城镇空间形态的演变则大大超过了历史上任何一个时期。城镇空间形态的演变,特别是快速的城镇用地扩张使耕地、水体以及植被等土地利用类型大量转向城镇用地,进一步加剧了原本就紧张的人地矛盾,并带来了一系列的生态环境问题。目前,中国城镇用地扩张模拟研究主要集中在经济高速发展的平原区域。而对于地势起伏大、生态环境脆弱、经济发展相对落后的山区城镇用地扩张模拟的研究仍然相对不足。山区城镇的扩张受到地形和山地灾害等多种因素的限制,表现出沿山间平地扩张的方向性特征,在对山区城镇进行模拟的时候,这种特性是必须纳入考虑的。同时,虽然人口和经济要素是山区城镇和平原城镇共同的主要驱动因素,但是由于山区城镇的发展往往落后于平原城镇,城镇容纳人口的组成以及经济结构对于城镇扩张的驱动作用是不同的。 基于以上分析和认识,本文选用岷江上游地区为研究区,对岷江上游地区五县以整体的城镇用地变化驱动机制进行了分析,提取了研究区适宜发展城镇用地的区域,在此基础上,根据研究区历史统计数据以及专家知识构建山区城镇用地SD模型,模拟低速发展、惯性发展和高速发展三种不同发展情景下城镇用地的需求,并结合Dyna-CLUE改进模型预测了对应情景下2011年到2030年的城镇用地范围并探究其对其他土地利用类型的影响。本研究的主要结论如下: (1) 经济、人口以及交通是岷江上游地区城镇扩张最主要的驱动力。对于发展较好的汶川县、理县和茂县,第一产业和第三产业以及交通因素对于城镇扩张的促进作用更为明显;对于发展相对落后的松潘县和黑水县,三产业的发展均有比较明显的促进作用。经济驱动因子中,人均经济指标的提升相比与总量经济指标的提升对城镇用地扩张的促进作用更明显。人口的促进作用更多的应该考虑城镇所需容纳人口的增长,而不单单是户籍人口的增长。 (2) 受到山区地形以及山地灾害等地理因素的限制,加之该地区本身基础设施的落后,岷江上游地区适合发展为城镇的用地十分稀有。这些用地基本沿着主要道路与河流呈零散分布,只在少数几个区域才集中分布着比较大的斑块,而很多细小斑块的存在也会增加城镇用地开发的难度和成本。 (3) 对山区城镇来说,发展速度越快,城镇主体越快达到适宜城镇建设区域的上限,并开始沿山间平地向两端扩张。耕地受山区城镇扩张的影响要远远超出其他土地利用类型,离城镇越近受影响越大。随着城镇扩张的加剧,其他土地利用类型受到的影响程度逐渐增大。适宜城镇建设用地的减少会阻碍城镇的发展,因此该地区应该针对发展过程中遇到的问题调整发展模式并作合理规划。 耦合Dyna-CLUE改进模型和SD模型能够充分发挥两个模型在微观土地分配以及宏观情景模拟上的优势,并充分表达了山区地形和山地灾害等因素对于山区城镇扩张的限制作用,是进行山区城镇扩张情景模拟的有效工具。模型模拟结果能够为山区城镇扩张的规划、评估由此造成的生态环境问题并制定相应的对策提供有效的技术支撑。
Other AbstractSince the reform and open, the urbanization process is proceeding faster and the evolution of urban morphology is beyond any time in history. As a result of the evolution of urban morphology, especially the rapid urban land expansion, arable land, water, plant and other land use types are being exploited into urban land in a large amount, which makes the contradictions between human and land resources more intense and brings series of ecological and environmental problems. Limited by the simulation ability of LUCC models, the simulation of urban land expansion in China is mostly focused on plain areas. As for mountain areas, the simulation research is relatively inadequate because of its rugged terrain, fragile ecological environment and backward economy. Mountainous urban land expansion is constrained by the hill-shaped terrain, mountain hazards and many other factors. It also shows a direction feature along the intermountain plain, which is necessary to take account in during the urban land simulation. As the mountain towns usually develop behind the plain towns, although, population and economy are the main driving factors for towns in both mountain and plain areas, the driving effect of population component and economy construction towards urban land defers. Based on the above analysis and understanding, this paper chose the upper reaches of Minjiang River as the study area. During the research, the driving mechanism of urban land expansion in the whole area of the upper reaches of Minjiang River and its five counties was analyzed. Then we extracted the suitable areas for developing into urban land in the study area. On this basis, the mountainous urban land SD model (System Dynamic Model) was built based on historical statistic data of the study area and expert experience. The demands of urban land were simulated by this model under three different developing scenarios respectively, which are slow development, inertial development and fast development. Combining with the modified Dyna-CLUE model (Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects Model) we predicted the distribution of urban land from 2011 to 2030 of corresponding developing scenario. The main conclusions of this research are as follows. (1) Economy, population and transportation are the main driving factors of the urban land expansion in the upper reaches of Minjiang River. The driving effect of the primary industry, the tertiary industry and transportation factors towards Wenchuan County, Li County and Mao County is much more obvious than the other driving factors. At the same time, we can find that, these three counties develop better than the other two counties. As for Songpan County and Heishui County, the driving effect of the all the three industries is obvious. When comparing the driving effect towards urban land expansion among the economy factors, the promotion of the quality of economy, which brings benefit to single person, is more obvious than the promotion of economic aggregate. It is town-accommodated population growth, but the census registered population growth, that should be taken into more consideration in the driving effect of population. (2) Constrained by hill-shaped terrain, mountain hazards and many other factors and coupled with the region's backward infrastructure, the suitable land for urban land development is very rare in the upper reaches of Minjiang River. All the suitable land basically distributes scattered along the main road or river, only a few fields have large patterns distributing in them. There are many tiny pattern in the suitable land, which will improve the difficulty and cost of urban land development. (3) For the mountainous town, the faster it develops, the faster it reaches the upper limit of the geographic restricted filed to downtown areas, and then it will expand towards the both sides along the intermountain plain. Arable land influenced by the mountainous urban expansion is far more than any other land use type. The closer it lies to the downtown areas, the more it will be influenced. As the urban expansion comes to a higher state, it will have a greater impact on the other land use types. As the decrease of arable land and the degeneration of natural environment will both set obstacles to the urban development, thus this area should adjust the development mode and make rational planning against the problems faced during the development process. By modifying the Dyna-CLUE model and combining with the System Dynamic model, the advantages of land allocation in microcosmic aspect and scenario simulation in macroscopic aspect are well developed. What’s more, this method clearly express the constraint effect of the hill-shaped terrain and mountain hazards toward mountainous urban land expansion. Therefore it provides an effective approach to the scenario simulation of urban land in mountain area. The simulation result of the model can offer effective technical support to mountainous urban planning, estimating the environmental problem caused by urban expansion and making relevant policy.
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/13957
Collection数字山地与遥感应用中心
Affiliation中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
严冬. 基于Dyna-CLUE改进模型的岷江上游地区城镇扩张模拟[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015.
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