IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area
Liu, D. L.1,2,3; Zhang, S. J.1; Yang, H. J.1; Zhao, L. Q.4; Jiang, Y. H.1; Tang, D.3; Leng, X. P.1
Corresponding Author张少杰
2016
Source PublicationNATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN1561-8633
Volume16Issue:2Pages:483-496
SubtypeArticle
AbstractThe activities of debris flow (DF) in theWenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21% lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.
KeywordDebris Flow Prediction Water-soil Coupling Mechanism System Wenchuan Earthquake-affected Area
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Physical Sciences
DOI10.5194/nhess-16-483-2016
WOS Subject ExtendedGeology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordCRITICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS ; SOIL COUPLING MECHANISM ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; DURATION CONTROL ; REGIONAL-SCALE ; INITIATION ; SLOPE ; INTENSITY ; RUNOFF ; FAILURES
Language英语
Quartile3区
TOP
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000373920100013
Funding OrganizationScience and Technology Service Network Initiative(KFJ-SW-STS-180) ; foundation of the Research Fund for Commonweal Trades (Meteorology)(GYHY201006039) ; Science and Technology Support Project of Sichuan Province(2015SZ0214) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(61501064 ; 41501114)
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Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/14185
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chengdu Univ Informat & Technol, Coll Software Engn, Chengdu 610225, Peoples R China
4.CMA, Publ Meteorol Serv Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, D. L.,Zhang, S. J.,Yang, H. J.,et al. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2016,16(2):483-496.
APA Liu, D. L..,Zhang, S. J..,Yang, H. J..,Zhao, L. Q..,Jiang, Y. H..,...&Leng, X. P..(2016).Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,16(2),483-496.
MLA Liu, D. L.,et al."Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 16.2(2016):483-496.
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