IMHE OpenIR  > Journal of Mountain Science  > Journal of Mountain Science-2016  > Vol13 No.8
Effects of climate change on potential habitats of the cold temperate coniferous forest in Yunnan province, southwestern China
LI Wang-jun; PENG Ming-chun; Motoki HIGA; Nobuyuki TANAKA; Tetsuya MATSUI; Cindy Q. TANG; OU Xiao-kun; ZHOU Rui-wu; WANG Chong-yun; YAN Hai-zhong
Corresponding AuthorPENG Ming-chun
2016-08
Source PublicationJournal of Mountain Science
ISSN1672-6316
Volume13Issue:8Pages:1411-1422
Subtype期刊论文
AbstractWe built a classification tree (CT) model to estimate climatic factors controllingthe cold temperate coniferous forest (CTCF) distributions in Yunnan provinceand to predict its potential habitats under the current and future climates, using seven climate change scenarios, projected over the years of 2070-2099. The accurate CT model on CTCFs showed that minimum temperature of coldest month (TMW) was the overwhelmingly potent factor among the six climate variables.The areas of TMW<-4.05 were suitable habitats of CTCF, and the areas of -1.35 < TMW were non-habitats, where temperate conifer and broad-leaved mixed forests (TCBLFs) were distribute in lower elevation, bordering on the CTCF. Dominant species of Abies, Picea, and Larix in the CTCFs, are more tolerant to winter coldness than Tsuga and broad-leaved trees including deciduous broad-leaved Acer and Betula, evergreen broad-leavedCyclobalanopsisand Lithocarpus inTCBLFs. Winter coldness may actually limit the cool-side distributions of TCBLFs in the areas between -1.35°C and -4.05°C, and the warm-side distributions of CTCFs may be controlled by competition to the species of TCBLFs. Under future climate scenarios, the vulnerable area, where current potential (suitable + marginal) habitats (80,749km2) shift to non-habitats, was predicted to decrease to 55.91% (45,053 km2) of the current area.Inferring from the current vegetation distribution pattern, TCBLFs will replace declining CTCFs. Vulnerable areas predicted by models are important in determining priorityof ecosystem conservation.
KeywordClassification Tree Climate Scenarios Vulnerable Area Abies Picea Larix Evergreen Broad-leaved Tree Alos Remote-sensing Images
DOI10.1007/s11629-016-3846-1
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
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Cited Times:5[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/17442
CollectionJournal of Mountain Science_Journal of Mountain Science-2016_Vol13 No.8
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
LI Wang-jun,PENG Ming-chun,Motoki HIGA,et al. Effects of climate change on potential habitats of the cold temperate coniferous forest in Yunnan province, southwestern China[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2016,13(8):1411-1422.
APA LI Wang-jun.,PENG Ming-chun.,Motoki HIGA.,Nobuyuki TANAKA.,Tetsuya MATSUI.,...&YAN Hai-zhong.(2016).Effects of climate change on potential habitats of the cold temperate coniferous forest in Yunnan province, southwestern China.Journal of Mountain Science,13(8),1411-1422.
MLA LI Wang-jun,et al."Effects of climate change on potential habitats of the cold temperate coniferous forest in Yunnan province, southwestern China".Journal of Mountain Science 13.8(2016):1411-1422.
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