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基于系统演化视角的可持续性评价方法
Alternative TitleA new method to assess sustainability : from the perspective of system evolution
黄茄莉
Corresponding Author黄茄莉
2015
Source Publication生态学报
ISSN1000-0933
Volume35Issue:8Pages:2712-2718
Abstract可持续发展水平的衡量是可持续发展研究的重要内容,它可以为政府的可持续发展决策提供重要的科学依据。现有的可持续性评价方法可分为指标列举法、流量分析法和系统分析法。前两类方法应用广泛,但理论基础较为薄弱,在指标的选取、标准化和赋权等方面存在一定的缺陷。基于系统运行机理的系统分析法尚不多见,但能弥补前两种方法的部分不足,Ulanowicz于2009年提出的演化模型是此类方法的代表。该模型从系统演化角度出发,以网络流为研究对象,以信息论为手段,指出系统的可持续性是系统上升性(效率)和恢复力平衡的结果,并提出了可持续性评价指标R。回顾了现有研究方法的优缺点。介绍了从演化视角分析可持续性的原理和数学模型,可持续发展的阈值范围以及该方法的应用案例。总结了该方法的应用步骤及尚需解决的问题。
Other AbstractSustainability assessment is an important subject in the field of sustainable development. Indicators of sustainability can provide policy-makers with clues as to whether a region is moving toward or away from sustainability: this can be helpful for decision-making. Sustainability assessment methodologies can be classified into three indicators: enumeration, flow analysis and systemic analysis. The standard used to classify methodologies considers whether the relationships between components in the system alone or whether the relationships between components in the system and the outside environment are considered. The indicators enumeration and flow analysis are widely used; however, they contain some disadvantages. These methods have a poor theoretical basis. Moreover, criteria to choose, standardize and integrate indicators are not ascertained unanimously. Different results may be derived for the same data if different methods of standardization or integration are used. Hence, sustainability assessment from the perspective of system dynamics has emerged as the optimal assessment method. In 2009, the American theoretical ecologist Ulanowicz proposed a typical system analysis method known as the evolution model. The evolution model-taking flow networks as the study object vand information theory as the measurement-shows that the sustainability of a system is determined by the balance between ascendency (efficiency) and resiliency. The model states that the capacity for a system to undergo evolutionary change or self-organization consists of two factors: 1) ascendency: the network's capacity to perform in a sufficiently organized and efficient manner to maintain its integrity over time; and 2) resilience: the network's reserve of flexible fallback positions and diversity of actions that can be used to meet the exigencies of novel disturbances and the novelty needed for ongoing development and evolution. These two factors are complementary with respect to diversity and connectivity in the network. A system's resilience is enhanced by high levels of diversity and connectivity, while ascendency is augmented by low levels of diversity and connectivity. In other words, too much ascendency (resilience) means too little resilience (ascendency). A system lacking ascendency has neither the extent of activity nor the internal organization needed to survive. By contrast, a system lacking resilience appears brittle in the face of novel disturbances. Both too much ascendency and too much resilience negatively affect sustainable development. Both ascendency and resilience are important for long-term sustainability: a system's sustainability is depending on the tradeoff between ascendency and resilience. According to this result, the sustainability indicator R is proposed. The paper is organized as follows. First, the advantages and disadvantages of current sustainability assessment methodologies are reviewed. Section 1 describes the principles used to analyze sustainability from the perspective of system's evolution. In section 2,the evolution model is described in the language of information theory. Section 3 describes the range of sustainable development and the optimal sustainable development state for ecosystems. This section also examines how to analyze the range of sustainable development in an economic system. The evolution model is applied to a water system and an economic system; these applications are described in section 4. Finally, the key steps to applying the evolution model are summarized and its disadvantages are discussed.
Keyword可持续性 评价 演化 上升性 恢复力
Subject AreaX22
DOI10.5846/stxb201403120425
Indexed ByCSCD ; 北大中文核心
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:5411107
Funding Organization国家自然科学基金项目(41201603) ; 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所“一三五”方向性项目专题(SDS-135-1204-03)
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/17780
Collection山区发展研究中心
山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室
Affiliation中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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GB/T 7714
黄茄莉. 基于系统演化视角的可持续性评价方法[J]. 生态学报,2015,35(8):2712-2718.
APA 黄茄莉.(2015).基于系统演化视角的可持续性评价方法.生态学报,35(8),2712-2718.
MLA 黄茄莉."基于系统演化视角的可持续性评价方法".生态学报 35.8(2015):2712-2718.
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