IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
A Real-time Prediction Method for Regional Rainfall-induced Geohazards in Post-earthquake Region of Wenchuan Earthquake
Yang ZJ(杨宗佶)1,2; J. QIAO; H. TIAN; D. HUANG; M. WANG; H. MENG
Corresponding Author杨宗佶
2012-06
Source PublicationGeotechnical Engineering Journal of the SEAGS & AGSSEA
ISSN0046-5828
Volume43Issue:2Pages:29-32
Abstract

After years of the Wenchuan earthquake took place in 12 May, 2008, rainfall has been the most major triggering factor of geohazards in the earthquake stricken areas. As a random event, geohazards including landslides and debris flows occurrence are affected by environmental factors and triggering factors, as a result the hazard degree should be a variational value varying from the regional random precipitation triggering factor and regional geohazards susceptibility assessment environmental factors. According to geohazards mechanism, the probability based method of assessing the variational hazard degree of regional geohazards is proposed by the combination of probability of daily precipitation and susceptibility assessment. The prediction model is established by the analysis of geology and hydrology factors of the study area, which is incorporating with the analysis of geohazards occurrence data and the corresponding precipitation data. Then, the method is applied in earthquake region of Chengdu City, 8 km away from the epicenter of Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan province. The validity of the prediction method is verified by evaluating the hazard degree of regional geohazards in Chengdu city on September, 24, 2008 and July, 17, 2009. It is found that the occurrence location and occurrence time of the two geohazards from prediction coincide with those from measurement. As a result, this variational hazard degree assessment model for regional geohazards demonstrates a useful application of a new predictive method and provides a basis for the prediction of time and space of regional Rainfall-induced geohazards.

KeywordReal-time Prediction Method Rainfall-induced Geohazards Post-earthquake Region
Subject Area地球科学
Indexed ByEI
Language英语
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/17913
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Affiliation1.中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
2.中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yang ZJ,J. QIAO,H. TIAN,et al. A Real-time Prediction Method for Regional Rainfall-induced Geohazards in Post-earthquake Region of Wenchuan Earthquake[J]. Geotechnical Engineering Journal of the SEAGS & AGSSEA,2012,43(2):29-32.
APA Yang ZJ,J. QIAO,H. TIAN,D. HUANG,M. WANG,&H. MENG.(2012).A Real-time Prediction Method for Regional Rainfall-induced Geohazards in Post-earthquake Region of Wenchuan Earthquake.Geotechnical Engineering Journal of the SEAGS & AGSSEA,43(2),29-32.
MLA Yang ZJ,et al."A Real-time Prediction Method for Regional Rainfall-induced Geohazards in Post-earthquake Region of Wenchuan Earthquake".Geotechnical Engineering Journal of the SEAGS & AGSSEA 43.2(2012):29-32.
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