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基于 Mein-Larson 入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究
Alternative TitleA Study of Instability Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Based on Mein-Larson Infiltration Model
李秀珍1,2; 张小红3
Corresponding Author李秀珍
2017
Source Publication水土保持通报
ISSN1000-288X
Volume37Issue:1Pages:219-223
Abstract

[目的]评价降雨诱发浅层滑坡的失稳破坏概率,为相关研究提供理论依据。[方法]在引入并扩展了Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型的基础上,将Mein-Larson入渗模型与无限边坡稳定性方法有机结合,建立2种降雨情形(高强度短历时和低强度长历时)下降雨滑坡稳定性的确定性评价模型,然后再将蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法与降雨滑坡的确定性评价模型结合,建立降雨滑坡稳定性的概率评价方法。[结果]提出了1种降雨诱发浅层滑坡失稳的概率评价方法。[结论]概率评价方法可以描述降雨滑坡发生及发展过程中存在的不确定性,可以计算不同降雨情形下,不同降雨时刻降雨诱发边坡的失稳破坏概率。该方法的评价结果更符合边坡实际情况。

Other Abstract

[Objective]The objective of the study is to evaluate the instability probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall,and to provide theoretical basis for related research.[Methods]We combine Mein-Larson model with infinite slope stability models of saturated soil by introducing and developing the Mein-Larson infiltration model,and establish deterministic models for rain-induced landslides under short duration rainfall with high intensity and long duration rainfall with low intensity.Then we establish a probability analysis method of the slope instability by combining the deterministic models with Monte Carlo method. [Results]One kind of evaluation method for the failure probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall was proposed.[Conclusion]The probability method not only can describe the uncertainties in the process of occurrence and development of rain-induced landslides,but also can calculate the instability probability of rain-induced slope instability under the different rainfall time.The assessment results are in high agreement with the actual slope.

KeywordMein-larson 入渗模型 降雨滑坡 无限边坡稳定性分析方法 失稳破坏概率
Subject AreaP642.22
DOI10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.039
Indexed ByCSCD
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:5969943
Funding Organization:中国科学院重点部署项目子课题“泥石流动力过程及调控模拟”(KZZD-EW-05-01-02) ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划)(2015CB452704)和国家重点基础研究发展计划
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/18070
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Affiliation1.中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
2.中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
3.重庆川东南地质工程勘察设计院
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李秀珍,张小红. 基于 Mein-Larson 入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究[J]. 水土保持通报,2017,37(1):219-223.
APA 李秀珍,&张小红.(2017).基于 Mein-Larson 入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究.水土保持通报,37(1),219-223.
MLA 李秀珍,et al."基于 Mein-Larson 入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究".水土保持通报 37.1(2017):219-223.
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