IMHE OpenIR  > 山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室
三江源区气候及水文变化特征研究
Alternative TitleRESEARCH ON CLIMATE AND RUNOFF VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE THREE-RIVER HEADWATER REGION
刘光生1,2; 王根绪1; 张伟3
Corresponding Author王根绪
2012
Source Publication长江流域资源与环境
ISSN1004-8227
Volume21Issue:3Pages:302-309
Abstract

以1961~2007年三江源区的气象及径流资料为基础,采用M-K法和R/S分析法分析三江源区气候及水文要素变化趋势及进行未来变化趋势预测,并采用主成分分析法判定径流过程的主要驱动要素。研究表明:三江源区气温普遍显著升高,水面蒸发和地温随着气温的升高也不断增加,降水的增加并不显著,而年径流尤其是夏秋季节径流存在明显减小的趋势。R/S分析结果表明气候和水文要素未来总体的变化趋势与过去一致。三江源区径流过程是由气温起主导作用,径流对气温变化较降水变化更为敏感。本研究将为三江源区水资源开发利用及优化配置提供科学借鉴,同时为三江源区的生态建设和保护提供参考依据。

Other Abstract

Based on the meteorological and runoff data of the Three-River Headwater Region during 1961~2007,the change trend of climatic and hydrological factors and the tendency predict in the future were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall technique and Rescaled range analysis.Meanwhile,principal component analysis was used to judge the main driving factor.The results showed that air temperature increased sharply and water surface evaporation and soil temperature increased with the increase of air temperature,whereas the increasing tendency of precipitation was unremarkable.The annual runoff,especially summer and autumn runoff,reduced sharply and the runoff coefficient also showed a decreasing trend.The result of Rescaled range analysis showed that the variation trend of future was identical to the past.The air temperature,soil temperature and water surface evaporation were the leading driving factors of the runoff process,and the increase of them caused the decrease of runoff.However,the increase of precipitation caused the increase of runoff.This study should be helpful for local water resources planning and management,and also should be significant for the study of the influence of global warming on ecosystem evolution,permafrost degradation and water resources safety.

Keyword三江源区 气候变化 水文特征 主成分分析
Subject AreaP467 ; P333
Indexed ByCSCD ; 北大中文核心
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:4489674
Funding Organization国家自然科学基金项目(40730634和40925002)
Citation statistics
Cited Times:7[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/18383
Collection山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室
Affiliation1.山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
2.中国科学院研究生院
3.兰州大学资源环境学院
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘光生,王根绪,张伟. 三江源区气候及水文变化特征研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(3):302-309.
APA 刘光生,王根绪,&张伟.(2012).三江源区气候及水文变化特征研究.长江流域资源与环境,21(3),302-309.
MLA 刘光生,et al."三江源区气候及水文变化特征研究".长江流域资源与环境 21.3(2012):302-309.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
三江源区气候及水文变化特征研究_刘光生.(477KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[刘光生]'s Articles
[王根绪]'s Articles
[张伟]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[刘光生]'s Articles
[王根绪]'s Articles
[张伟]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[刘光生]'s Articles
[王根绪]'s Articles
[张伟]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 三江源区气候及水文变化特征研究_刘光生.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.