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中国西部社区山地灾害减灾意识与风险管理能力研究
Language中文
陈容
Thesis Advisor崔鹏
2015-11
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline自然地理学
Keyword山地灾害 社区 减灾意识 灾害风险管理 中国西部
Abstract

社区减灾意识与风险管理能力分析作为社区灾害风险管理研究的必要环节,为社区风险决策、减灾管理机制的制定与减灾措施的实施提供依据。论文针对我国山区减灾注重工程措施,对管理措施重视不够导致减灾效果不理想,减灾社会化参与程度低的现状,针对前人灾害意识的调查对象样本容量小,样本代表性不够,调查方法描述不清楚等问题,选取我国西部山区为研究区,综合运用灾害学、地理学、社会学、管理学等学科知识,采用野外调查、实地访谈、问卷调查、案例研究、理论分析与实证研究等手段,2012年10月~2015年2月间共组织4次问卷调查,一共获取了2875份有效问卷,深入访谈了60位社区减灾不同利益体,组织了4次社区座谈会,对我国西部社区的山地灾害减灾意识与应急管理能力进行了系统研究,揭示了社区减灾意识与现行减灾措施之间的不适宜性,查明了现行社区减灾管理的不足,在此基础上建立了参与式社区灾害风险管理模式,提出了针对性的参与式社区山地灾害风险管理机制,并用汶川县七盘沟村进行了实证分析。主要研究结果如下:(1)基于2012年和2013年灾后野外调查和大量灾害案例,总结了山地灾害危害社区的三种模式:单体灾害直接致灾、直接复合受灾和间接链式受灾。特大型灾害归因于灾害本身的巨大危险性与人们对灾害风险的反映。房屋建筑工程规划建设选址不当,防治工程设计对震后山地灾害规律认识不足,当地居民对灾害风险存在侥幸心理,灾害预警信息传递不畅是造成社区遭受山地灾害危害的主要人为原因,可以通过管理加以改进。(2)根据大范围抽样调查获取的2632份有效问卷,所有样本的山地灾害减灾意识的平均综合得分率仅为0.68(0.66,0.70),据此估计出调查总体平均综合得分率置信水平为95%的置信区间是(0.67,0.68),表明中国西部居民山地灾害减灾意识的总体水平不够理想。我国山地灾害传统的宣传工具如防灾避险明白卡和应急预案知晓率不高,居民对山地灾害的二次灾害风险侥幸心理明显,但居民参与社区防灾减灾活动的意愿较强,反映社区减灾意识与现行减灾措施如灾害教育之间的不适宜性。灾害风险认知、灾害防御认知、减灾行为倾向、减灾态度与减灾意识的相关系数分别达到0.493、0.728、0.715和0.614,表明4个变量与减灾意识具有较强的线性相关。灾害防御认知和减灾行为倾向的相关系数为0.438,反映了加强灾害宣传培训教育的重要性。从不同群体来看,中青年减灾意识较强,最差的恰是生理上最为脆弱的65岁以上的老人;减灾意识与居民受教育程度呈正相关;女性的减灾意识水平总体上不如男性。从不同区域来看,山地灾害高易发区、受灾严重区、高山区、城镇安置小区、减灾投入高的地区的民众的减灾意识明显高于其他区域。(3)采用有序多分类Logistic回归模型,分析了山地灾害减灾意识的影响因素,建立了两个常数项不同,偏回归系数相同的回归方程。受教育水平、受山地灾害危害程度分区、社区是否有避险场所、社区是否组织过宣传培训活动、是否有人提前通知做好应灾准备、性别、减灾投入分区、地质灾害易发程度分区和家庭年纯收入等因素是影响居民山地灾害减灾意识的重要因素。(4)大范围抽样调查表明,我国西部社区山地灾害应急能力的总体水平较强,但防灾备灾还不够充分,表现在社区应急资源不足,宣传培训普及率低。40.3%的住户明确表示所在社区没有避险场所,社区没有组织过灾害宣传培训活动,但87.6%住户愿意参加相关的灾害宣传教育活动,反映减灾意识与减灾措施的不适宜性。在前人研究和公众参与基础上,提出了较为实用和科学的社区山地灾害应急管理能力评价指标表,以彭州市龙门山镇为例分析其山地灾害应急管理能力处于中等偏上水平,并用2012年“8.17”典型灾害事件以及居民对当地政府应急管理能力满意度进行验证,评价结果与实际情况吻合。(5)针对现有社区减灾管理的不足,结合实地调查获取的资料,提炼出参与式社区灾害风险管理模式,探讨了参与式社区山地灾害风险管理机制,结合典型社区,探讨了复杂灾害环境背景下的山地灾害风险管理实施途径。

Other Abstract

Analysis on community awareness for disaster risk reduction and risk management capability is essential to the community-based disaster risk management research. It provides the basis for risk decision, establishment of disaster management mechanism and implementation of disaster mitigation measures in communities. Due to inadequate attention to management measures, the mitigation effect is not so ideal and with low community participation in disaster reduction among mountainous areas. The survey sample size for disaster awareness in many previous studies is small to represent the overall situation of the study area, and without clear description of survey methods. We selected mountainous area in western China as the study area. Based on field investigation, questionnaire survey, in-depths interviews, case studies, theoretical analysis and empirical research, we acquired a total of 2875 valid questionnaires, in-depth interviews with 60 multi-stakeholders and four symposiums in communities during October 2012 and February 2015. Awareness for mountain hazard risk reduction in western China has been systematically studied, by which revealing the inapplicability between community awareness for disaster reduction and mitigation measures, and identifying the deficiencies of community-based disaster management. Based on this, targeted participatory mechanism of community-based disaster risk management is proposed. Main results have been achieved as follow:1. The damage modes to communities by mountain hazards are summarized based on post-disaster field investigation in2012 and 2013 and case studies. The three damage modes to communities, hit by single hazard, simultaneous multi-hazards directly and hazard chain indirectly, were proposed. The huge disasters were attributed to active hazards and human reaction to the risk from mountain hazards. The man-made factors referred to unreasonable locations with respect to reconstruction planning and subsequent construction, unsuitable design of disaster mitigation countermeasures, lack of public awareness to subsequent hazards and unblocked ways to deliver precaution information, which can be improved by management. 2. According to 2632 valid questionnaires, the scoring rate of resident awareness for mountain hazard risk reduction of all samples was only 0.68 on average, and the estimated 95% confidence level of the difference for the overall population is (0.67, 0.68), which indicates the comprehensive level of awareness for mountain hazard risk reduction in the study area is not so good. Awareness rates of the traditional communication tools such as the disaster-prevention card and the emergency plan are low, and the denial of subsequent mountain hazard risks is obvious. The correlation coefficient between disaster awareness and disaster risk perception, disaster defense cognition, disaster reduction behavioral tendencies and disaster mitigation attitudes were 0.493, 0.728, 0.715 and 0.614 respectively, which showed that the four variables had a strong linear correlation with disaster awareness. The correlation coefficient between disaster prevention cognition anddisaster reduction behavioral tendencies was 0.438, which reflected the importance of strengthening disaster education. In terms of different population groups, the young and middle-aged have a greater awareness for mountain hazard risk reduction compared with the elderly (over 65 years of age), who have the least awareness. In addition, the education levels of residents are significantly and positively correlated with their awareness for mountain hazard risk reduction, and women generally have a lower level of awareness compared with male residents. In terms of different regions, the awareness of residents in seriously affected areas that are highly susceptible to mountain hazards is significantly higher than other regions, and people living in town resettlement communities, high mountains, and areas with high input to disaster mi

Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/18694
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Affiliation中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
陈容. 中国西部社区山地灾害减灾意识与风险管理能力研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015.
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