IMHE OpenIR  > 山区发展研究中心
岷江上游人地关系地域系统特征及驱动机制
Alternative Titleharacteristics and Drive Mechanism of Human-Land Relationship in the Upper Minjiang River Basin
Language中文
刘颖
Thesis Advisor邓伟
2016
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline人文地理学
Keyword人地关系 驱动机制 岷江上游
Other Abstract

人地关系地域系统可持续发展日益受到关注。相较于平原,山区因其生态功能的重要性,人地关系协调与可持续发展更加重要。山区人地关系协调与可持续发展的研究重点是在山区有限的国土空间条件下,如何协调人口、资源、环境与发展的相互关系,促进其人口合理分布、资源合理利用、社会经济协调发展,这对防止山区生态环境退化、促进山区生态建设,明确山区发展导向、指导区域有序开发,实现山区可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究针对人地关系“巨系统”,选择典型山区岷江上游为研究区域,以“人地关系地域系统构成要素剖析-人地关系协调度空间格局-影响因素及驱动机制分析-人地关系变化趋势”为基本框架,对人地关系地域系统开展综合研究。首先,基于PRED模型阐释岷江上游人口、资源、环境各子系统构成要素进行分析,阐释人口-资源、人口-环境之间的相互关系及人地关系地域系统特征;进而构建人类社会系统、自然生态系统的关键表征指标,对人类活动强度和自然生态系统脆弱度进行空间量化,依托GIS构建综合判别模型对人地关系地域系统协调度进行评价,有效刻画人地关系地域系统空间格局;在此基础上,将宏观分析与微观认知、单向反馈与互馈影响相结合,系统分析人地系统影响因子及驱动机制;构建人类活动强度指数与资源环境承载力指数,综合应用物元模型与灰色系统预测模型,对岷江上游人地系统变化及发展趋势进行预测;最后,结合岷江上游人地关系地域系统分析和实地调研,提出人地关系协调发展对策。通过系统研究,主要结论包括以下方面:(1)岷江上游国土空间开发有效承载能力凸显差异性和有限性。基于海拔、起伏度、灾害高风险影响因素综合分析认识到;岷江上游理论可利用国土空间为1.37万km2,占流域总面积的比重仅为54.9%。但各县可利用国土空间占比差异性显著,茂县、松潘县、黑水县为61.5%、70.3%和60%,适宜性国土空间较大,汶川县、理县该比例仅为37.8%和29.8%,表明其国土空间开发承载能力明显有限。(2)岷江上游聚落分布及规模受海拔、地形起伏度的影响较为显著,人口集聚呈现明显的垂直分异特征。从聚落数量特征看,海拔和地表结构是影响岷江上游聚落空间分布的关键因素,海拔1800-3200m区间是聚落分布的主体区域,该空间内聚落数量占岷江上游聚落总数比重达74%;当海拔高于3200m,聚落分布数量明显减少。从聚落平均规模看,随着地形起伏度增加,聚落平均面积呈逐渐减小态势,从总体看,在海拔2000m以下、地形起伏度200以下的空间,聚落的集聚性显著,虽然数量不多,但规模较大,是村落、乡镇重点分布区;在海拔2000-3200m、地形起伏度200-300的空间,聚落从数量看是偏多,但聚落规模很小,呈分散性分布;在海拔3200m以上、地形起伏度300以上的空间,聚落数量少、规模小,仅为零星分布。(3)岷江上游人类活动与山地灾害分布在空间上存在复合性关联,大量聚落分布于存在山地灾害潜在风险的空间范围内。通过对岷江上游聚落和山地灾害点空间关联性分析可知,65个聚落与灾害点在空间上高度关联,该类型聚落主要分布于海拔2000m以下,地形起伏度260以上的区域。受水源、耕地、防御、气候等因素影响,早期聚落零散分布于高海拔区;随着经济社会发展,人口压力持续增大,聚落向低海拔区域迁移,但囿于有效承载空间限制,部分聚落不得不选择泥石流冲积扇等相对稳定的灾害体上,若无外力因素,聚落在灾害体稳定期内是相对安全的,但若在外界强烈干扰下,该类灾害体可能存在再次活化的风险,聚落面临山地灾害的潜在威胁。(4)岷江上游人地关系协调度空间差异显著,整体协调度水平处于较低状态,且呈现较强的空间自相关特征。在89个乡镇中,表征人地关系处于紧张状态的“较低级”和“低级”占比达到41.1%,表征人地关系处于协调状态的“高级”和“较高级”占比仅为27.8%。其中,理县、汶川县、茂县人地关系矛盾最为突出,人地矛盾突出的乡镇数量占比分别达到69.2%、61.5%、54.5%。根据人地关系地域系统空间自相关结果,Moran's I值为0.51,人地关系地域系统呈现较强的空间关联性,局部空间集聚显著。(5)地形条件是构成人地关系地域系统的基本因素,人类活动导致岷江上游人地关系由低水平协调向相对紧张状态转化。从宏观层面看,地形条件是影响岷江上游人地关系初始状态的基本因素,人口压力是促进人地关系动态演进的关键要素,发展需求是推动人地关系状态演变的策动力。从微观层面看,工业发展及旅游建设、资源利用与开发、重大工程项目建设和退耕还林等政策是岷江上游人地关系地域系统的重要影响因素。岷江上游人地关系地域系统变化是正、负反馈圈相互作用的复杂过程,负反馈圈侧重于开发、正反馈圈侧重于保护,岷江上游差异性的高强度和强力的生态保护促使人地关系总体趋好,局部矛盾加剧。(6)岷江上游人地关系已由较低压力转为高压力状态,按照现有发展模式,人地关系压力将持续增大。岷江上游人类活动强度指数、资源环境承载能力指数分别由2000年的0.141、0.172增长至2010年的0.502、0.298,两者的差距逐渐增大,说明岷江上游人地关系状况逐渐趋于紧张,已由较低压力转换至高压力状态。人类活动强度指数、资源环境承载能力指数总体呈逐年上升态势,将分别由2015年的1.24、0.36增至2025年的8.43、2.18,人类活动强度指数增加远大于资源环境承载能力指数的提高,按照当前发展模式,岷江上游人地关系压力将会持续增大,优化国土空间开发格局将会面临更多的挑战和压力。 

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sustainable development of human-land relationship is paid more and more attention. Compared with plain,because of the ecological function the coordination and sustainable development of human-land relationship in mountain area is more important. The key point of these research is that how to harmonize the relationship among population, resource, environment and development in order to promote reasonable distribution of population, rational utilization of resource as well as coordinated development of social economy. It is significant for preventing the mountain ecological degradation, guiding regional orderly development and achieving sustainable development in the mountainous area. This research includes four parts. Firstly, based on the PRED model, it quantitatively analyzes the element of the population system, resource system and environment system. Then it explains the relationship and the interaction between each system pairwise. Secondly, it constructs indicator system which include the key index of human system and nature system and quantify human activity intensity and ecological vulnerability from spatial aspect. Based on the quantification of human activity intensity and ecological vulnerability, and with the help of GIS, it builds a comprehensive discriminant model for evaluation of human-land relationship in order to explain the spatial pattern of human-land relationship. Thirdly, combined macroscopic with microcosmic analysis, it analyzes the influence factor and driving mechanism. Fourthly it constructs the human activity index and resource-environment carry ability index to analyze the change and development trend of human-land relationship by matter-element model and Grey model. Lastly, according to above analysis and field research, it provides suggestion for human-land system sustainable development.The result shows that:(1) the effective carrier space is limited in the upper Minjiang river basin。Considering the elevation,relife degree of land surface and hazard which affect the population distribution,the available space of the upper Minjiang river basin is 13.7 thousand km2,accounting for 54.9% of the total land space。The proportion of the total land space in each county is different,the proportion of Mao county,Songpan county and Heishui county is 61.5%,70.3% and 60% respectively,and the proportion of Wenchuan county,Li county is 37.8% and 29.8% respectively.(2) The distribution of settlement is affectd by the elevation and RDLS. Elevation is the key factor which affect the distribution of settlement, most of the settlement distribute at 1800m to 3200m, accounting for 74% of the total amount of the settlement. The amount of settlement decrease significant when the elevation is higher than 3200m. RDLS is the key factor that affect the scale of settlement. With the increase of RDLS, the scale of settlement decrease. The amount of settlement is small and the scale of settlement is large in the areas where the elevation and rdls is low, The amount of settlement is large and the scale of settlement is small in the areas where the elevation and rdls is in the middle interval, The amount of settlement and the scale of settlement is small in the areas where the elevation and rdls is high.(3) The settlement distribution and mountain disaster distribution is highly related. There is 65 settlement which located near by the disaster. Considering the terrain、climate、resource and defence capability,the settlement distribute at the high altitude in the early time. With the increase of population,the settlement migrated to the area of which the altitude is low. However because of the limit of the space,some settlements have to distribute at the areas which was affected by the disaster in the early time but is not affected by the hazards for a long time. Because if affected by other factors,these areas may suffer from disasters once again. So these settlements are under potential threat. (4) The spatial difference of human-land relationship is significant, and the coordination degree is low, and presents a strong spatial autocorrelation.The proportion of the “five level” and the fourth level which means the coordination degree is low is41.1%,and the proportion of the “first level” and the second level which means the coordination degree is high is 27.8%. the coordination degree of Li county,Wenchuan county and Mao county is lowest,the proportion of the “five level” and the fourth level is 69.2%,61.5% and 54.5% respectively.Based on the result of spatial autocorrelation analysis,the value of Moran's I is 0.51 which means the coordination degree is spatial autocorrelation. (5) Terrain condition that constitute the basic elements of human-land relationship system and human activity lead the system transform from the low level coordination to relative tension condition。From the macroscopic aspect,terrain condition is the basic factor that affect the human-land relationship,population pressure is the key factor and the demand of development is the important factor.From the microcosmic aspect,industry, tourism, resource application and exploitation as well as construction of major projects and policy is the significant factors that affect the human-land relationship.The change of human-land system in the upper Minjiang river basin is an complex process which include the interaction between the positive and negative effect.The negative effect emphasis on development while the positive effect emphasis on conservation.(6) Drive by different policy and other factors, the human-land relationship continue to change. The human activity index and resource-environment carry ability index respectively increase from 0.141, 0.172 to 0.502, 0.298 during the year from 2000 to 2010. The human activity index is higher than resource-environment carry ability index from 2003,and the gap continues to increase, the human-land relationship becomes worse. Based on the predict by Grey Modeling, if keep the same way of development, the human activity index and resource-environment carry ability index will increase from 1.24, 0.36 to 8.43, 2.18 during the year from 2015 to 2025. It is reported that the human activity index increased quickly while the resource-environment carry ability increased slowly, so the human-land relationship will become worse and worse. 

Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/18982
Collection山区发展研究中心
Affiliation中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘颖. 岷江上游人地关系地域系统特征及驱动机制[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2016.
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