IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
基于水文模型与GIS技术的山洪灾害风险分析
Alternative TitleRisk Analysis of Mountain Torrent Disaster Assisted by Hydrological Model and Geographical Information System
Language中文
齐宪阳
Thesis Advisor陈宁生
2016
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name硕士
Degree Discipline建筑与土木工程
Keyword山洪灾害 Hec-hms模型 风险分析 地理信息系统(gis)
Other Abstract

1950年以来,山洪灾害导致大量的人员伤亡,已成为国内造成人员伤亡的主要自然灾害类型之一。由于山洪灾害本身的不确定性,导致防洪工程也并不能完全消除其风险,因此,研究山洪灾害的风险分析方法就显得十分关键,但目前国内山洪灾害风险分析方法主要以大尺度(区域性洪水)的风险分析研究为主,而小尺度(受洪水威胁的山区沿河村落)山洪灾害风险分析还鲜有研究。本文以都江堰市白沙河流域作为研究对象,将HEC-HMS模型引入小尺度山洪灾害风险分析。首先,通过渗透试验、遥感解译和GIS水文分析技术,获取了HEC-HMS模型计算所需的基本参数,并采用杨柳坪水文站降雨径流数据对HEC-HMS模型进行了率定和验证;其次,采用HEC-HMS模型计算不同频率下红色村二组河段的径流过程,对已有山洪泥石流危险区划指标的综合分析确定了山洪危险区等级的划定标准,并结合野外调查获取的河道横断面数据,划定了红色村二组的山洪灾害危险区;最后,结合实地调查与承灾体易损性评估,开展了沿河村落山洪灾害风险分析。通过研究,取得的初步成果如下:(1)研究区主要土体的稳定下渗率:白沙河流域主要的土体类型为林地、草地、耕地和裸地,依次占整个流域面积的78.31%、12.76%、3.72%和3.35%,不同土体类型的稳定下渗率从大到小依次为裸地、耕地、草地和林地,下渗率分别为1.0194mm/min,0.4290mm/min,0.2294mm/min,0.1397mm/min。(2)研究区的降雨径流过程模拟:基于白沙河流域杨柳坪水文站降雨径流数据对HEC-HMS模型的率定和验证表明:模拟与实测的洪峰流量和总径流量的相对误差均在《水文情报预报规范》的规定以内,且模拟径流过程的确定性系数(DC)均达到乙级及以上的预报水平,可以进行白沙河流域的水文预报。(3)沿河村落的山洪灾害危险区划:通过综合分析以淹没水深H(m)为指标确定了山洪危险区划标准:高危险区H>1.0、中危险区1.0≥H>0.4、低危险区H≤0.4,并利用危险区划标准对沿河村落(红色村二组)进行了不同频率下的山洪灾害危险区划分,得到从5年一遇到200年一遇的高、中、低危险区面积,并编制了危险区划图件,其中200年一遇的高、中、低危险区面积分别为34364.39m2、4207.37m2、1549.65m2。(4)沿河村落的山洪灾害风险评价:本文从人口和财产两方面进行了沿河村落(红色村二组)不同频率下的山洪灾害风险评价,得到从5年一遇到200年一遇的高、中、低危险区人口和财产数据,其中200年一遇的高、中、低危险区人口分别为12人、24人、30人,财产分别为96.03万元、35.43万元、6.76万元。

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Mountain torrents disaster has caused a great number of casualties since 1950s It is one of the main disasters caused by natural disasters in China. Due to the uncertainty of mountain torrents disaster itself, resulting in the risk of flood control engineering also could not be eliminated. Thus, carrying out the risk analysis of mountain torrents disaster is particularly important, but the Chinese mountain torrents disaster risk assessment methods are mainly large scale (Regional flood)risk assessment based, while the small scale (Mountainous villages along the river) mountain torrents disaster risk analysis is rarely reported.The Baisha River in Dujiangyan city as the research object, and the HEC-HMS hydrological model is introduced to study the small scale of mountain torrents disaster risk. First of all, by using the permeability test, remote sensing interpretation and GIS hydrological analysis technology, to access to the basic parameters of HEC-HMS model, then completed the HEC-HMS hydrological model calibration and verification based on the Yangliuping hydrological station rainfall runoff data; Secondly, the runoff process is calculated using the HEC-HMS model under different frequency of red River village two groups, the comprehensive analysis of existing flood and debris flow hazard zonation indicators to determine the mountain torrents disaster risk zonation standard, and combined with the river cross. section data, delineated by the Red Village second group of flood hazard areas; Finally, based on the analysis and investigation of vulnerability, carried out mountain torrents disaster risk assessment of villages along the river. Through the research, the preliminary results obtained are as follows:(1)Stable infiltration rate of the main soil body in the study area:Baisha River Basin soil use types are mainly woodland, grassland, farmland and the bare land, accounted for the entire catchment area of 78.31%, 12.76% and 3.72% and 3.35% respectively, the different soil stable infiltration rate from high to low in order to bare land, cultivated land, grassland and woodland, infiltration rate were 1.0194mm/min, 0.4290mm/min, 0.2294mm/min, 0.1397mm/min respectively.(2)Simulation of rainfall runoff process in the study area:On the basis of Yangliuping hydrological station rainfall runoff data of HEC-HMS hydrological model calibration and validation which show that: the error of measured and simulated peak flow, and total runoff are in accordance with the provisions of the standard of hydrological forecast, and simulated runoff process of the determination coefficient (DC) reach the level of B ,thus HEC-HMS hydrological model can be used in the Baisha River Basin hydrological forecasts.(3)Mountain torrents disaster risk zoning of the village along the river:Through comprehensive analysis with submerged water depth h (m) as the index to determine the mountain torrents disaster risk zonation standard: high danger zone H>1.0, medium danger zone1.0≥H>0.4, low danger zone H≤0.4, and by using the risk zoning standards for the red village two groups under different frequency of flood carried out danger zone division, which obtained from the 5.year experience in 200 years of high, medium and low. risk areas, and the preparation of hazard zoning maps, where 200 years of high, medium and low. risk area were 34364.39 m2,4207.37 m2,1549.65 m2,respectively. (4)Mountain torrents disaster risk assessment of the village along the river:The from the aspects of population and property carried out village along the Red Village second group under the different frequency flood disaster risk assessment, obtained from a 5.year experience 200 years of high, medium and low. risk area population and property data, where 200 years of high, medium and low. risk area population were 12 people, 24 people, 30 people, property respectively, 960,300 Yuan, 354,300 Yuan, 67,600 Yuan.

Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/18992
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Affiliation中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
齐宪阳. 基于水文模型与GIS技术的山洪灾害风险分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2016.
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