IMHE OpenIR  > Journal of Mountain Science  > Journal of Mountain Science-2017  > Vol14 No.9
Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy
Nazzareno DIODATO; Gianni BELLOCCHI; Francesco FIORILLO; Gerardo VENTAFRIDDA
Corresponding AuthorGianni BELLOCCHI
2017-09
Source PublicationJournal of Mountain Science
ISSN1672-6316
Volume14Issue:9Pages:1791-1800
Subtype期刊论文
AbstractGroundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action. Accurate estimates of groundwater discharge may be valuable in improving decision support systems of hydrogeological resource exploitation. The present study performs a forecast for groundwater discharge in Aquifer's Cervialto Mountains (southern Italy). A time series starting in 1883 was the basis for long-term predictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction (EDisP) was applied, and the progress of the discharge ensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of an Exponential Smoothing (ES) model initialized at different annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast model experiments were tested, and discharge plume-patterns forecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year 2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified by comparing simulations and observations, which is essential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ES performed an ensemble mean path for the coming decades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1 standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m3 s-1. These fluctuations are comparable with those observed in the period 1961-1980 and further back, with change-points detectable around the years 2025 and 2035. Temporary drought conditions are expected after the year 2030.
KeywordCaposele (Italy) Ground Water Drought Ensemble Forecast Exponential Smoothing Spring Discharge
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4445-5
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/19075
CollectionJournal of Mountain Science_Journal of Mountain Science-2017_Vol14 No.9
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Nazzareno DIODATO,Gianni BELLOCCHI,Francesco FIORILLO,et al. Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2017,14(9):1791-1800.
APA Nazzareno DIODATO,Gianni BELLOCCHI,Francesco FIORILLO,&Gerardo VENTAFRIDDA.(2017).Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy.Journal of Mountain Science,14(9),1791-1800.
MLA Nazzareno DIODATO,et al."Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy".Journal of Mountain Science 14.9(2017):1791-1800.
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