山区发展研究中心知识库

采用第五、第六次全国人口普查数据,基于流出、流入双向视角解析人口迁移格局及演变过程;采用空间计量模型,阐释综合城镇化及各城镇化分量值对省际人口迁移影响的空间效应。研究结果表明:① 2000~2010年省际人口迁移量成倍增长,人口迁出区域空间不断扩散,迁入区域空间虽无明显变化,但内部差异性变化明显;②省际人口迁移存在明显的空间依赖性特征,省际人口净迁入率变化明显受周边地区的正向影响;③综合城镇化率变化对省际人口迁入有着重要作用。④人口、经济和土地城镇化率变化对人口净迁入率变化具有显著影响,且经济城镇化仍为影响省际人口迁移变化的主导因素;社会城镇化率的影响并不明显。

The migration will bring a major change in population spatial distribution in the process of rapid urbanization. Based on the fifth and sixth national population census data, it analyzes flow direction and quantity of provincial population migration fromtwo-wayaspects in order to explain the spatial pattern and evolution of interprovincial population migration; Furthermore, on the basis of spatial autocorrelation analysis, it build spatial econometric model to analyze the effect of comprehensive urbanization and population urbanization, economic urbanization, land urbanization and social urbanization on interprovincial population migration. The results show that: 1) In the process of rapid development of urbanization in China,the quantity of interprovincial population migration visibly increase from 2000 to 2010; Emigration region tend to be scattered, while there is no significant change of ingoing region; 2) Interprovincial population migration has obvious characteristics of spatial dependence, and net immigration rate change is under the positive influence of surrounding areas; 3) Through the analysis of the spatial association between urbanization changes and interprovincial population migration changes, it verified comprehensive urbanization included the factors of population, economy, land and social play an important role on interprovincial population immigration; 4) The changes of population, economy and land urbanization has significant effects on population immigration, however social urbanization is not obvious. In the multi-dimensional component of urbanization, economy urbanization is still dominant factors that affect the change of interprovincial population migration.