IMHE OpenIR  > Journal of Mountain Science  > Journal of Mountain Science-2018  > Vol15 No.2
Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru
Sly C. WONGCHUIG; Carlos R. MELLO; Sin C. CHOU
Corresponding AuthorCarlos R. MELLO
2018-02
Source PublicationJournal of Mountain Science
ISSN1672-6316
Volume15Issue:2Pages:264-279
Subtype期刊论文
AbstractProjections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessedthe projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, whichis important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. Weassumedthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenarioand simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.
KeywordPrecipitation Evaporation Precipitation Concentration Index (Pci) Modified Fournier Index (Mfi) Climate Change Tropical Andes
DOI10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/20844
CollectionJournal of Mountain Science_Journal of Mountain Science-2018_Vol15 No.2
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Sly C. WONGCHUIG,Carlos R. MELLO,Sin C. CHOU. Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2018,15(2):264-279.
APA Sly C. WONGCHUIG,Carlos R. MELLO,&Sin C. CHOU.(2018).Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru.Journal of Mountain Science,15(2),264-279.
MLA Sly C. WONGCHUIG,et al."Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru".Journal of Mountain Science 15.2(2018):264-279.
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