Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018

	Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data
	Pan, Hua-Li1,2 ; Jiang, Yuan-Jun1,2 ; Wang, Jun 3; Ou, Guo-Qiang1,2
	2018-05-17
发表期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN	1561-8633
卷号	18 期号:5 页码:1395-1409
摘要	Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other threshold models and configurations shows that the selected approach is the most promising starting point for further studies on debris flow early warning systems in areas with a scarcity of data.
DOI	10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018
关键词[WOS]	INTENSITY-DURATION THRESHOLDS ; INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; 13 AUGUST 2010 ; WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; SHIKOKU ISLAND ; INITIATION ; CHINA ; MODEL ; PATTERNS
语种	英语
资助项目	CRSRI Open Research Program[CKWV2015229/KY] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; 135 Strategic Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS[SDS-135-1701] ; National Nature Science Foundation of China[51679229] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[2018405]
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000432457400003
项目资助者	CRSRI Open Research Program ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; 135 Strategic Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS ; National Nature Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
出版者	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/23014
专题	山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
通讯作者	Jiang, Yuan-Jun
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 3.Guangzhou Inst Geog, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pan, Hua-Li,Jiang, Yuan-Jun,Wang, Jun,et al. Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2018,18(5):1395-1409.
APA	Pan, Hua-Li,Jiang, Yuan-Jun,Wang, Jun,&Ou, Guo-Qiang.(2018).Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,18(5),1395-1409.
MLA	Pan, Hua-Li,et al."Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 18.5(2018):1395-1409.

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