Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018

	Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data
	Hua-Li Pan1,2 ; Yuan-Jun Jiang1,2 ; Guo-Qiang Ou1,2
第一作者单位	Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
通讯作者单位	Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
通讯作者	Yuan-Jun Jiang
	2018
发表期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN	1561-8633
卷号	18 期号:5 页码:1395-1409
文章类型	Article
产权排序	1
摘要	Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other threshold models and configurations shows that the selected approach is the most promising starting point for further studies on debris flow early warning systems in areas with a scarcity of data.
关键词	INTENSITY-DURATION THRESHOLDS INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES 13 AUGUST 2010 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHIKOKU ISLAND INITIATION CHINA MODEL PATTERNS
DOI	10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000432457400003
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/23014
专题	山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
作者单位	1.Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; 2.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; 3.Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hua-Li Pan,Yuan-Jun Jiang,Guo-Qiang Ou. Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2018,18(5):1395-1409.
APA	Hua-Li Pan,Yuan-Jun Jiang,&Guo-Qiang Ou.(2018).Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,18(5),1395-1409.
MLA	Hua-Li Pan,et al."Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 18.5(2018):1395-1409.

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