IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
丝绸之路经济带自然灾害与重大工程风险
Alternative TitleRisks along the Silk Road Economic Belt owing to natural hazards and construction of major projects
崔鹏1,2; 胡凯衡1; 陈华勇1; 邹强1
2018
Source Publication科学通报
ISSN0023-074X
Volume63Issue:11Pages:989-997
SubtypeArticle
Contribution Rank1
Abstract

丝绸之路经济带穿越了地质结构复杂、构造运动活跃、气候条件多变的地区,区域内各种原生和次生自然灾害频发.地震作为典型的原生自然灾害具有突发性强、危害范围广、破坏严重等特点,并诱发一系列次生灾害.气象灾害具有种类多、空间分布广、时间跨度大等特点.山区地质灾害大多由地震、极端降雨等灾害诱发,具有类型多样、分布广泛、危害严重等特点.该经济带沿线各类自然灾害风险严重影响沿线各国深入合作与交流,制约着社会经济的快速发展.本文阐述了丝绸之路经济带上地震灾害、气象灾害和地质灾害等三类主要自然灾害特点及其发展趋势,并针对丝绸之路经济带上的重大工程建设,提出了5点应对策略:(1)建立丝绸之路经济带孕灾背景和灾害数据库;(2)集成现有的灾害防控技术,研发减灾关键技术;(3)发展空-天-地立体、全天候的监测预警方法;(4)科学评估灾害风险;(5)建立多国协调减灾和信息共享机制.

Other Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Kazakhstan in 2013 in order to strengthen economic ties, deepen mutual cooperation, and widen the field of development. The Silk Road Economic Belt has cultural connotations of the ancient Silk Road, a regional cooperation strategy between the Asian and African continents. This belt is important for the promotion of the Chinese economy and the development of economic and trade cooperation between China and countries located along the route. However, the Silk Road Economic Belt passes through the harshest geographical and climatic conditions in the world. The region contains complex geological structures, and is characterized by frequent earthquake activity, large differences in terrain elevation, poor engineering geological conditions, as well as intensive rainfall caused by a monsoon climate. As a result, different kinds of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, geo-hazards, floods, droughts, and dammed lakes, seriously hinder in-depth cooperation and communication between countries located along the Silk Road Economic Belt. This paper presents research on the Silk Road Economic Belt. Primary and secondary natural hazards related to geological events and climate change, such as earthquakes, climatic hazards, and geo-hazards triggered by earthquakes and extreme climatic changes, are analyzed. According to the inventory map of earthquakes, droughts, and geo-hazards, the earthquake-prone areas in this region include Central and Western Asia, the Sino-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Sino-Mongol-Russia Junction Belt, and the New Euro-Asian Continental Bridge. The flood-prone region is located mainly in Southeastern Asia, in countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, while the drought-prone region is located primarily in Inner Asia. The region most susceptible to geo-hazards is the mountainous area around the Tibet Plateau. The tendency of frequent natural hazards to develop and their effects on major projects along the Silk Road Economic Belt are discussed in detail. The results show that seismic activity is likely to be high until approximately 2050 and will become relatively quiescent in the second half of the 21st century. Precipitation will increase by 2%-3% until 2020, and by 5%-7% until 2050. Three high-frequency snow hazard regions are formed, including the central area of Inner Mongolia, the northern region of the Xinjiang Tianshan Range, and the Northeastern Tibet Plateau. Although the inter-annual variability of snow hazards changes significantly, the general trend shows an increase. Drought hazards have become more severe in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and have expanded in recent years due to global climate change and other factors. Secondary natural hazards have increased due to the rise in earthquake activity and extreme climatic changes.

Keyword丝绸之路经济带 自然灾害 气候变化 风险评估 防灾减灾
DOI10.1360/N972017-00867
Indexed ByEI ; CSCD
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:6213856
EI Accession NumberAccession number: 20183105618312
Citation statistics
Cited Times:4[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/23157
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Corresponding Author崔鹏
Affiliation1.中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 成都 610041;
2.中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心, 北京 100101
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Corresponding Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
崔鹏,胡凯衡,陈华勇,等. 丝绸之路经济带自然灾害与重大工程风险[J]. 科学通报,2018,63(11):989-997.
APA 崔鹏,胡凯衡,陈华勇,&邹强.(2018).丝绸之路经济带自然灾害与重大工程风险.科学通报,63(11),989-997.
MLA 崔鹏,et al."丝绸之路经济带自然灾害与重大工程风险".科学通报 63.11(2018):989-997.
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