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Alternative TitleDynamic assessment of debris-flow susceptibility under the influence of earthquake and rainfall events
胡凯衡1,2; 陈成1,2,3; 李秀珍1,2; 李浦1,2,3
Corresponding Author胡凯衡
Source Publication中国地质灾害与防治学报
Contribution Rank1
Abstract泥石流易发性同时受静态和动态地质环境致灾因子的影响,呈现为动态变化过程。基于动态易发性与静态易发性为线性关系的假设,提出了考虑地震和降雨影响的灾害易发性动态评估模型。地震对易发性的影响系数为地震烈度的2次方函数,且与时间为负幂律关系。降雨的影响系数与归一化的大雨发生天数为正比关系。应用提出的方法和模型,用相对高差、坡度、岩性和断裂带密度计算了横断山区的静态易发性,分析了2000~ 2015年横断山区地震事件的影响和大雨事件的年际变化规律,计算了地震影响系数和降雨影响系数,得到了横断山区2000~ 2015年的逐年易发性分区图。
Other AbstractDebris-flow susceptibility is controlled not only by static effective factors such as topography and lithology,but also by dynamic effective factors such as earthquake,rainfall and human activity.So the susceptibility varies with the dynamic factors.In this paper,a simple model of calculating the dynamic susceptibility is developed based on the assumption of linear relationship between the static and dynamic susceptibilities.The influence of earthquake and rainfall events represent by two coefficients.The earthquake coefficient is considered as an exponential function of intensity,and a negative power function of elapsed time.The rainfall coefficient is proportional to the occurrence days of heavy rainfall.This model is applied to assess the debris-flow susceptibility of Hengduan Mountainous Area from 2000 to 2015.Four static effective factors including relative relief,slope,lithology and fault density are used to calculate the static susceptibility by ArcGIS grid toolbox.There are six earthquake events since 1995 whose intensity zones of ≥VI are intersected with the Hengduan Area.The earthquake coefficient is calculated with the intensity zoning data of each of the six events and then is accumulated to get the final earthquake coefficient in each year.TRMM satellite rainfall data from 2000 to 2015 are collected to extract the occurrence days of heavy rainfall which is used to calculate the rainfall coefficient.The dynamic susceptibility from 2000 to 2015 are obtained by multiplying the static susceptibility with the earthquake and rainfall coefficients in respective year.The 2015 susceptibility map shows a qualitative agreement with the distribution map of disasters in 2015.
Keyword泥石流 灾害易发性 地震 降雨 动态评估
Indexed ByCSCD
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Cited Times:4[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
胡凯衡,陈成,李秀珍,等. 地震区降雨作用下泥石流易发性动态评估[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(2):1-8.
APA 胡凯衡,陈成,李秀珍,&李浦.(2018).地震区降雨作用下泥石流易发性动态评估.中国地质灾害与防治学报,29(2),1-8.
MLA 胡凯衡,et al."地震区降雨作用下泥石流易发性动态评估".中国地质灾害与防治学报 29.2(2018):1-8.
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