| Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China | |
Li Ming1 ; Tian Cong-shan1,2; Wang Yu-kuan1; Liu Qin1,3; Lu Ya-feng1; Wang Shan4
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| 2018 | |
| Source Publication | JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
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| ISSN | 1672-6316 |
| EISSN | 1993-0321 |
| Volume | 15Issue:8Pages:1836-1850 |
| Subtype | Article |
| Abstract | An increase in extreme precipitation events due to future climate change will have a decisive influence on the formation of debris flows in earthquake-stricken areas. This paper aimed to describe the possible impacts of future climate change on debris flow hazards in the Upper Minjiang River basin in Northwest Sichuan of China, which was severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was divided into 1285 catchments, which were used as the basic assessment units for debris flow hazards. Based on the current understanding of the causes of debris flows, a binary logistic regression model was used to screen key factors based on local geologic, geomorphologic, soil, vegetation, and meteorological and climatic conditions. We used the weighted summation method to obtain a composite index for debris flow hazards, based on two weight allocation methods: Relative Degree Analysis and rough set theory. Our results showed that the assessment model using the rough set theory resulted in better accuracy. According to the bias corrected and downscaled daily climate model data, future annual precipitation (2030-2059) in the study area are expected to decrease, with an increasing number of heavy rainfall events. Under future climate change, areas with a high-level of debris flow hazard will be even more dangerous, and 5.9% more of the study area was categorized as having a high-level hazard. Future climate change will cause an increase in debris flow hazard levels for 128 catchments, accounting for 10.5% of the total area. In the coming few decades, attention should be paid not only to traditional areas with high-level of debris flow hazards, but also to those areas with an increased hazard level to improve their resilience to debris flow disasters. |
| Keyword | Debris flow Hazard assessment Relative degree analysis Rough set theory Future climate change Minjiang River basin |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11629-017-4787-z |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| WOS Keyword | ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; ROUGH SET-THEORY ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; HEAVY RAINFALL ; SUSCEPTIBILITY ; MODEL ; VALIDATION ; EARTHQUAKE ; CATCHMENTS ; DISASTER |
| Language | 英语 |
| Quartile | 4区 |
| Funding Project | 135 Strategic Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS[SDS-135-1703] ; National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 program)[2015CB452702] |
| TOP | 否 |
| WOS Research Area | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS Subject | Environmental Sciences |
| WOS ID | WOS:000442239600016 |
| Funding Organization | 135 Strategic Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS ; National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 program) |
| Publisher | SCIENCE PRESS |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/23724 |
| Collection | 山区发展研究中心 |
| Corresponding Author | Wang Yu-kuan |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chengdu Univ Technol, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan, Peoples R China 4.Chengdu Land Planning & Cadastre Ctr, Chengdu 610074, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| Corresponding Author Affilication | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,et al. Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2018,15(8):1836-1850. |
| APA | Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,Liu Qin,Lu Ya-feng,&Wang Shan.(2018).Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,15(8),1836-1850. |
| MLA | Li Ming,et al."Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 15.8(2018):1836-1850. |
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| Impacts of future cl（2766KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Application Full Text | |
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