IMHE OpenIR  > 山区发展研究中心
Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China
Li Ming1; Tian Cong-shan1,2; Wang Yu-kuan1; Liu Qin1,3; Lu Ya-feng1; Wang Shan4
2018
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
ISSN1672-6316
EISSN1993-0321
Volume15Issue:8Pages:1836-1850
SubtypeArticle
AbstractAn increase in extreme precipitation events due to future climate change will have a decisive influence on the formation of debris flows in earthquake-stricken areas. This paper aimed to describe the possible impacts of future climate change on debris flow hazards in the Upper Minjiang River basin in Northwest Sichuan of China, which was severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was divided into 1285 catchments, which were used as the basic assessment units for debris flow hazards. Based on the current understanding of the causes of debris flows, a binary logistic regression model was used to screen key factors based on local geologic, geomorphologic, soil, vegetation, and meteorological and climatic conditions. We used the weighted summation method to obtain a composite index for debris flow hazards, based on two weight allocation methods: Relative Degree Analysis and rough set theory. Our results showed that the assessment model using the rough set theory resulted in better accuracy. According to the bias corrected and downscaled daily climate model data, future annual precipitation (2030-2059) in the study area are expected to decrease, with an increasing number of heavy rainfall events. Under future climate change, areas with a high-level of debris flow hazard will be even more dangerous, and 5.9% more of the study area was categorized as having a high-level hazard. Future climate change will cause an increase in debris flow hazard levels for 128 catchments, accounting for 10.5% of the total area. In the coming few decades, attention should be paid not only to traditional areas with high-level of debris flow hazards, but also to those areas with an increased hazard level to improve their resilience to debris flow disasters.
KeywordDebris flow Hazard assessment Relative degree analysis Rough set theory Future climate change Minjiang River basin
DOI10.1007/s11629-017-4787-z
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; ROUGH SET-THEORY ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; HEAVY RAINFALL ; SUSCEPTIBILITY ; MODEL ; VALIDATION ; EARTHQUAKE ; CATCHMENTS ; DISASTER
Language英语
Quartile4区
Funding Project135 Strategic Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS[SDS-135-1703] ; National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 program)[2015CB452702]
TOP
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000442239600016
Funding Organization135 Strategic Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS ; National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 program)
PublisherSCIENCE PRESS
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/23724
Collection山区发展研究中心
Corresponding AuthorWang Yu-kuan
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chengdu Univ Technol, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan, Peoples R China
4.Chengdu Land Planning & Cadastre Ctr, Chengdu 610074, Sichuan, Peoples R China
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Corresponding Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,et al. Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2018,15(8):1836-1850.
APA Li Ming,Tian Cong-shan,Wang Yu-kuan,Liu Qin,Lu Ya-feng,&Wang Shan.(2018).Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,15(8),1836-1850.
MLA Li Ming,et al."Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin, China".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 15.8(2018):1836-1850.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
Impacts of future cl(2766KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Li Ming]'s Articles
[Tian Cong-shan]'s Articles
[Wang Yu-kuan]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Li Ming]'s Articles
[Tian Cong-shan]'s Articles
[Wang Yu-kuan]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Li Ming]'s Articles
[Tian Cong-shan]'s Articles
[Wang Yu-kuan]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.