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以气温和降雨量为指标的冰湖溃决预警方法
Alternative TitleEarly warning method of glacial lake outburst floods based on temperature and rainfall
刘晶晶1,2,3; 马春1,3; 苏鹏程1,3
2018
Source Publication南水北调与水利科技
ISSN1672-1683
Volume16Issue:6Pages:1-8
SubtypeArticle
Contribution Rank1
Abstract冰湖溃决是冰川区突发的严重山地灾害之一。目前,全球气候变暖,冰川普遍退缩,冰湖面积和溃决风险也随之增大。因此,冰湖溃决预警方法的研究对冰川地区防灾减灾有着重要的实际意义。现提供了一种综合考虑气温与降雨条件影响的冰湖溃决预警方法,选择预测日前期正积温逐日增长速度值与预测日前期30d累积降雨量作为气温和降雨的代表性指标,通过对2010年前发生的21例溃决事件统计,结合邻近21个气象台站的日均温和日降雨量资料分析,建立了冰湖溃决的预警警戒线和冰湖溃决预警系统流程。其后,选择2013年7月5日的然则日阿错冰湖溃决案例对建立的冰湖溃决预警系统进行验证,发现预警效果良好。
Other AbstractGlacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs)are serious disasters in glacial areas.At present,due to global warming,glaciers are generally diminishing;thus increasing the glacial lake area and the outburst risk.Therefore,the research on early warning methods for GLOFs is important to disaster prevention and relief in glacial areas.This paper proposes an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices.We selected the daily growth rate of prior period positive cumulative temperature and the prior thirty-day cumulative rainfall as the representative indices of temperature and rainfall.Based on the statistics of the 21outburst events before 2010and the data from the 21nearby meteorological stations,we built an outburst early warning threshold and a flow chart of the GLOF early warning system.The system was verified by the GLOF event in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.
Keyword气温 降雨量 冰湖溃决 预警
DOI10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2018.0145
URL查看原文
Indexed ByCSCD
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:6402098
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/24266
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Corresponding Author刘晶晶
Affiliation1.中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所&中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室;
2.四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室;
3.中国科学院大学
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Corresponding Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘晶晶,马春,苏鹏程. 以气温和降雨量为指标的冰湖溃决预警方法[J]. 南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(6):1-8.
APA 刘晶晶,马春,&苏鹏程.(2018).以气温和降雨量为指标的冰湖溃决预警方法.南水北调与水利科技,16(6),1-8.
MLA 刘晶晶,et al."以气温和降雨量为指标的冰湖溃决预警方法".南水北调与水利科技 16.6(2018):1-8.
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