IMHE OpenIR  > 山区发展研究中心
雪灾干扰下江河源区畜牧业恢复力研究
Alternative TitleStudy on Resilience of Animal Husbandry to Snow Disaster in the Source Region of Yangtze-Yellow Rivers
赵霜
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor方一平
2017
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline人文地理学
Keyword江河源区 雪灾 畜牧业 恢复力 适应
Abstract雪灾是高寒地区主要自然灾害之一,严重影响当地居民生产生活。近年来,全球气候变化引起的局部地区温度、降水波动,加剧了雪灾发生规模和频率的不稳定性。江河源区地理及生态环境复杂,对气候变化极为敏感,常年频繁雪灾对当地畜牧生产造成不同程度损失,严重阻碍当地经济可持续发展和人民生活质量的改善。因此,如何提高畜牧经济系统对气候变化及自然灾害的恢复与适应能力是本文探讨的主要内容。本文以灾害恢复力理论为研究方法,以江河源区雪灾与畜牧业关系为切入点,以雪灾破坏下畜牧业恢复能力为研究内容,就江河源区雪灾发生时空特征、雪灾对畜牧业的经济社会影响、灾害恢复力时空分布特点、空间适应策略等展开分析。在综合气象数据、历史雪灾记录资料及社会经济统计数据的基础上,利用统计分析、数学建模、情景分析、GIS空间分析等方法就以上内容展开深入研究。基于本文的分析得到以下结论: (1)1980-2014年雪灾特征分析表明,35年来江河源区降雪量、降雪天数、积雪深度和积雪面积四项雪灾因子整体呈缓慢下降态势。但2004年后,各项雪灾因子均有波动上升,表明近期雪灾风险有增加趋势。空间分布上,江河源区中、东部即雪灾因子强度高于西部,果洛州玛沁、达日县常年为高值中心。1980-2014年江河源区雪灾历史资料记录也表明,达日县为雪灾发生次数最多的地区,与气象数据分析结果基本一致。 (2)雪灾因子中降雪量、降雪天数和积雪深度与畜牧经济指标显著相关,其中降雪量与畜牧经济各项指标相关性最高。选择与雪灾因子显著相关的畜牧经济指标建立回归模型,得到雪灾因子对畜牧经济作用关系及变化趋势。结论表明,雪灾因子除对死亡率起正效应以外,对其余指标皆为负效应,且随着雪灾规模的扩大,效应强度也持续增加。其次雪灾还会造成社会影响,一方面表现为扩大城乡收入差距、加剧区域经济内部不平衡,另一方面对改善就业结构、完善政策与优化防灾机制、转变牧民传统意识理念有积极作用。 (3)恢复力评价结果显示,江河源区畜牧业恢复力整体呈波动上升趋势,轻灾或无灾年出现极高值,中灾或重灾年出现极低值。根据雪情程度选取典型年份分析江河源区恢复力空间分布特征,结果显示由于雪情规模直接决定恢复力高值区与低值区的分布,且区域内恢复力差距仍在不断扩大。根据情景分析模型理论设计雪灾因子一般增长、正增长和负增长情景,模拟恢复力2030年及2050年空间分布及雪灾因子变化对畜牧经济的影响,结论表明江河源区恢复力增强,雪灾对畜牧业负效应减弱,空间差异进一步扩大。 (4)基于江河源雪灾成灾性、抗灾能力、减灾能力典型年份平均值进行空间叠加得到江河源区恢复力分布,重点关注灾害恢复力中低水平地区。根据雪灾风险和恢复力水平将研究区划分为三种空间类型,即高成灾风险—中低恢复力水平区、中成灾风险—中低恢复力水平区、低成灾风险—中低恢复力水平区,并分析不同类型区恢复力影响因素,提出切合地区实际的适应措施。
Other AbstractSnow disaster which is one of the main natural disasters in the alpine area makes great influence on the production and life of the local residents. In recent years, the fluctuations of temperature and precipitation caused by global climate change have exacerbated the instability of the intensity and frequency of snow disaster. The source region of the Yangtze-Yellow Riverswith complex ecological and geographical environment is highly sensitive to climate change. Perennial and frequent snow disaster has cause different degrees ofproduction loss and has effectively hindered sustainable development of local economy and the quality of residents’life. Therefore, the approach to improve the resilience and adaptability of livestock to natural disasters is the main content of this paper. The theory of resilience to disaster is the method of this research. According to the relationship between snow disaster in the source region of Yangtze-Yellow Rivers and animal husbandry, the research content of this paper is the level of resilience of animal husbandry under the destruction of snow disaster. And it has analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of snow disaster, social and economic influence from snow disaster to animal husbandry, temporal and spatial features of disaster resilience and strategy of spatial adaptability.Based on the meteorological data, historical records of snow disaster and social and economic statistics, this paper has make further research on those contents by statistical analysis, mathematical model, scenario analysis and GIS spatial analysis. The paper is constituted with four parts. Firstly, tend analysis of snow factorsshows that values of snowfall, snow days, snow depth and snow cover of the source region in Yangtze-Yellow Rivers has declined slowly in 35 years in general. However, values of these factors has presented weak increasing tend after 2004, which indicates that the risk of snow disasterhas grown recently. From the perspective of space, the value of snow disater in the middleand easternis higher than that in the west. Maqin County and Dari County in Guoluo state is high-value sector in many years. The history record of snow disaster also shows that the number of snow disaster in Dari Conuty is the most, which is in according to conclusion of meteorological data analysis. Secondly, among all the snow factors, snowfall, snow days and depth are closely related to the indicators of animal husbandry and the snowfall has the highest correlation to the livestock economy. Regression models to analyze the effects and change trend of snow factors on animal husbandry ecnomyare built based on the close relationship with snow factors.The result shows, in addition to the positive effects of the mortality rate, the remaining indicators are been impacted negatively by snow disaster. With the expanding of snow disaster, the intensity of effects will continue to increase. Meanwhile, the snow disaster also causes dual social effects. On the one hand, it will enlarge the urban-rural income gap and exacerbate imbalance in regional economic growth, on the other hand, it plays a positive role in the improvement of employment structure, optimization of disaster prevention mechanism and policy and transformation of tradition concept of herdsmen. Thirdly, the evaluation result indicates that the resilience of livestock in the source region of Yangtze-Yellow Rivers is increasing with fluctuations. The light disaster years tend to be with high value and the disastrous years tend to be with low value. According to the scale of snow disaster, 3 typical years have been choosen to analyze the characteristics of spatial distribution of resilience in source region of Yangtze-Yellow Rivers. The result shows that the range of high value and low value area changes greatly decided by the scale of snow disaster and the gap of resilience in this area is still widening. Based on the situation models,three scenarios have been designed separately including natural increasing, enhancing and weaking scenarios to situate spatial distribution of resilience and snow disaster's impact on animal husbandry in 2030 and 2050. It is shown that resilience is going to increase, negative influences of snow disaster to animal husbandry willbe reuduced and spatial gap of resilience will be further expanded. Finally, the resilience of source region of Yangtze-Yellow rivers distribution is based on spatial overlay of the possibility of snow disaster, resisting ability and mitigating ability of typical years. Area with low or middle level of resilience is paid more attention. Ths stuy area isdivided into three parts in the light of risk of snow disaster and level of resilience. They are respectively low risk and low-middle resilience area, medium risk and low-middle resilience area, high risk and low-middle resilience area. Through recognizing the affecting factors of three type of area, the reasonable adaptive measures have been proposed.
Pages111
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/24565
Collection山区发展研究中心
Affiliation中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
赵霜. 雪灾干扰下江河源区畜牧业恢复力研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2017.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
雪灾干扰下江河源区畜牧业恢复力研究.pd(3562KB)学位论文 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[赵霜]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[赵霜]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[赵霜]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 雪灾干扰下江河源区畜牧业恢复力研究.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.