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山地灾害威胁区农户能力、认知及行为响应研究——以三峡库区为例
Alternative TitleFarmers’ ability, perception and behavior responses in the mountain hazard threat areas: a case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China
徐定德
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor苏春江
2017
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline人文地理学
Keyword农户能力 灾害风险认知 地方感 行为选择 三峡库区
Abstract中国是一个山地大国,山区是我国可持续发展的关键区域以及全面建成小康社会不可或缺的国土空间。然而,由于地形和地质背景的原因,部分山区地震、滑坡等灾害频发,给聚落居民生命和财产安全带来巨大威胁,成为导致农户贫困或脱贫后返贫的重要致贫因素。要实现中央政府2020年贫困人口彻底脱贫的目标,少不了对山地灾害威胁区农户这一特殊群体进行针对性的研究。灾害对居民造成的冲击及居民的行为响应一直是地理学、灾害学和社会学等学科关注的热点和焦点问题之一。然而,已有实证研究多关注地震、火山和飓风等自然灾害对居民的影响,对滑坡、泥石流等具有较大隐蔽性和随机性的山地灾害关注较少。同时,少有定量研究回答山地灾害会对农户造成怎样的冲击以及农户又有怎样的行为响应。面对山地灾害的威胁,很多山区聚落农户明知道居住区还存在灾害的威胁,却不愿搬走,有的甚至在受灾搬迁后回流,陷入“受灾→迁移→回归→受灾”的怪圈。为什么会出现这种现象?有的学者从可持续生计单一视角,有的学者从灾害风险认知单一视角,有的学者从地方感单一视角去解释这种现象。然而,已有研究多是定性的描述,少有多视角耦合的定量研究。同时,虽然有少量定性研究发现,农户面临灾害的威胁不搬迁或搬迁后回流,其可能原因是对居住地灾害风险的认知不足,对居住地深深的恋地情节(地方感)以及对搬迁后家庭生存状况的担忧(农户能力)。这为我们理解上述两个极端现象提供了新的研究视角——农户能力和认知视角。然而,少有定量研究耦合上述研究视角,提出新的研究框架,在定量测定农户能力和认知基础上进一步揭示农户能力和认知在其行为决策中的具体作用机制。基于此,研究以三峡库区这一山地灾害与贫困双重交织的典型区域作为样本区,在定性研究基础上,从农户可持续生计、灾害风险认知和地方感多重学科视角出发,提出农户能力、认知和行为决策分析框架。通过分层等概率随机抽样和调查问卷的方式获得348户农户样本。构建计量经济模型探究山地灾害对农户造成的冲击及农户和社区的能力响应,农户能力、地方感和灾害风险认知在其搬迁、避灾准备和购买山地灾害保险行为决策中的具体作用机制。主要得到以下几点结论:(1)就风险冲击及农户应对能力而言,山地灾害损失冲击、医疗开支冲击和房屋建设开支冲击是影响农户贫困脆弱性的主要因素,而储蓄和外出务工收入是农户缓解外部冲击的有效方式;社区应对能力是减弱农户生计脆弱性的有效手段,而自然资本和金融资本的缺乏以及生计策略的相对单一均不利于农户抵抗外部冲击。(2)就农户能力和认知在其搬迁决策中的具体作用机制结果而言,在不同情景中,农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感对其搬迁决策的具体作用机制存在差异。在政府强迫搬迁命令下,农户搬迁意愿与灾害风险认知和地方感相关关系显著,而与农户能力相关关系不显著;在给定补贴条件下,农户自愿搬迁意愿与农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感显著相关,灾害风险认知某些维度会通过对地方感某些维度以及农户能力某些维度产生调节效应而间接影响其搬迁决策。(3)就农户能力和认知在其避灾准备决策中的具体作用机制结果而言,农户灾害风险认知、地方感和能力均是其是否有避灾准备的重要影响因素,除了直接效应外,农户能力还可通过灾害风险认知一些维度的调节,间接影响其避灾准备(调节效应)。(4)就农户能力和认知在其山地灾害保险购买决策中的具体作用机制结果而言,农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感均是其山地灾害保险购买行为决策的重要影响因素,然而农户灾害风险认知与地方感和能力间并不存在调节效应。同时,地方感各维度对农户购买山地灾害保险意愿的作用效果并不稳健。综合而言,本研究研究框架的设计,农户能力、灾害风险认知和地方感的具体测度及农户能力和认知在其行为决策中的具体作用机制均具有一定的探索性,可为其它同类研究提供参考借鉴。同时,基于分析结果,研究有针对性的就区域精准扶贫、防灾减灾和灾害管理等政策的实施制定提出了几点政策建议。
Other AbstractChina is a mountainous country, and mountainous areas are the key areas of the sustainable development in China and the indispensable land space of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. However, due to the terrain and geological background, the frequent earthquakes, landslides and other disasters in some mountainous areas have posed a huge threat to the safety of life and property of settlement residents, which becomes the important factor of farmers’ poverty or poverty-return of poverty alleviation population. In order to achieve the goal of the complete poverty alleviation of impoverished population in 2020 proposed by the central government, it is necessary to carry out a targeted study of farmers in the mountain hazard threat areas, the special group.The shocks of disasters to residents and residents'behavioral responses have always been the research hotspot and focus of geography, disaster science, sociology and other disciplines.However, the existing empirical studies have mainly focused on the influences of earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes and other natural disasters on residents, paying less attention to landslides, debris flows and other mountain disasters with greater concealment and randomness. Meanwhile, few quantitative studies are concerned about the shocks of mountain disasters to farmers and farmers'behavioral responses.In the face of the threat of mountain disasters, many farmers in the mountain settlements have realized that there is still the threat of disasters in the residential areas, but they are reluctant to relocate, and some of them even choose to go back after disaster relocation, falling into the strange circle of “disaster-relocation-backflow-disaster”. Why is there such a phenomenon? Scholars have usually explained this phenomenon from three single perspectives, namely sustainable livelihoods, disaster risk perception and sense of place. However, most of the previous studies are qualitative descriptions, and there are few multi-perspective coupling quantitative studies. At the same time, a small number of qualitative studies have found that when facing the threat of disasters, farmers are reluctant to relocate or choose to go back after the relocation, and the possible reasons are the lack of disaster risk perception ofresidence, the deep love for residence (sense of place) and the concerns about the living conditions of families after relocation. This provides the new research perspectives, which are the perspectives of farmers' ability and perception, for us to understand the above two extremes. However, few quantitative studies are coupled with the above research perspectives and put forward the new research frameworks, further revealing the specific functionary mechanisms of farmers' ability and perception in their behavioral decisions based on the quantitative determination of farmers' ability and perception. Based on this, this study takes the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the typical area which interweaves mountain disasters with poverty, as the study area, and based on the qualitative research, the analysis frameworks for farmers' ability, perception and behavioral decisions are put forward from the multidisciplinary perspectives of farmers' sustainable livelihoods, disaster risk perception and sense of place. The samples of 348 farmers are obtained by stratification and probabilistic random sampling and questionnaire survey. The econometric models are constructed to explore the shocks of mountain disasters to farmers, farmers' and communities'ability responses and the specific functionary mechanisms offarmers' ability, sense of place and disaster risk perception in their behavioral decisions of relocation, disaster prevention preparedness and purchasing mountain disaster insurance. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) In terms of risk shocks and farmers' adaptive capacity, mountain disaster loss shocks, medical expense shocks and housing construction expenditure shocks are the main factors affecting rural household poverty vulnerability, while savings and migrant labor income are the effective way for farmers to alleviate external shocks; community adaptive capacity is an effective means to weaken rural household livelihood vulnerability, whereas the lack of natural capital and financial capital as well as the relative single livelihood strategies are not conducive to farmers' resistance to external shocks. (2) With regard to the results of the specific functionary mechanisms of farmers' ability and perception in their relocation decisions, there are differences in the specific functionary mechanisms of farmers' ability, disaster risk perception and sense of place in their relocation decisions in different situations. Under the government’s forced relocation order, farmers’ willingness to relocate is significantly correlated with disaster risk perception and sense of place, while is not significantly related to farmers' ability; under the given subsidy condition, farmers’ voluntary willingness to relocate is significantly correlated with farmers' ability, disaster risk perception and sense of place, and some dimensions of disaster risk perception would indirectly affect the relocation decisions through the regulation effect on some dimensions of sense of place and farmers' ability. (3) Concerning the results of the specific functionary mechanisms of farmers' ability and perception in their disaster prevention preparedness decisions, farmers' disaster risk perception, sense of place and ability are the important influencing factors of whether there is disaster prevention preparedness, and in addition to the direct effect, farmers' ability can also indirectly affect their disaster prevention preparedness by adjusting some dimensions of disaster risk perception (the moderating effect).(4) Regarding the results of the specific functionary mechanisms of farmers' ability and perception in their purchasing mountain disaster insurance decisions, farmers' ability, risk perception and sense of place are the important factors influencing behavioral decisions of purchasing mountain disaster insurance, whereas there is no moderating effect between farmers' risk perception and sense of place as well as farmers' ability. Meanwhile, the effect of all dimensions of sense of place on farmers’ willingness to purchase mountain disaster insurance is not robust.In conclusion, the design of the research frameworks, the specific measurement of farmers' ability, disaster risk perception and sense of place and the specific functionary mechanisms of farmers' ability and perception in their behavioral decisions in this study are all exploratory, and can provide a reference for other similar research. At the same time, based on the analysis results, this study pertinently puts forward some policy suggestions on the implementation and formulation of regional precise poverty alleviation, disaster preparedness and mitigation, disaster management and other policies.
Pages145
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/24588
Collection山区发展研究中心
Affiliation中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
徐定德. 山地灾害威胁区农户能力、认知及行为响应研究——以三峡库区为例[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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