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江河源区高寒草地畜牧业生产效率及人地关系协调模式
Alternative Titlehe Production Efficiency of Grassland-based Animal Husbandry and the Coordination Modes of Man-Land Relationship in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers
朱付彪
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor方一平
2017
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline人文地理学
Keyword生产效率 人地协调 多维分析 草地畜牧业 江河源区
Abstract作为生态环境脆弱区和敏感区,气候变暖、冰冻圈退化以及人类活动干扰增强等已经给青藏高原高寒草地生态系统造成深远影响,并显著影响草地畜牧业发展。而草地畜牧业又会影响草地生态系统健康稳定,并直接或间接地作用于环境变化。作为青藏高原地区的主要经济活动、牧民的主要生计来源、社会稳定的重要基础以及草原文化传承的重要载体,草地畜牧业又具有巨大的社会和经济意义。因此,研究草地畜牧业可持续发展及人地关系协调具有重要的理论和现实意义。而提高生产效率是实现草地畜牧业可持续发展和人地关系协调的关键。基于此,本文以江河源区为研究区域并基于县域尺度,通过构建分析指标和测度模型,利用社会经济统计数据、气象数据和遥感卫星数据,从经济生产效率、社会生产效率、生态生产效率和综合生产效率4个方面定量分析草地畜牧业生产效率及其影响因素,并以之为切入点探讨人地关系协调模式。旨在为生产效率研究、草地畜牧业可持续发展及人地关系协调提供借鉴。(1)江河源区牧业增加值呈指数增长趋势;肉奶产量呈波动增长趋势;年末存栏呈减少趋势。但是各地区畜牧业产出及变化存在差异。此外,草地畜牧业发展存在过度放牧、牲畜结构不合理、产业化水平低和生产经营粗放等问题。各地区升温趋势明显;以1997年为界生长季节降水呈先波动减少后波动增加趋势;活动层厚度呈波动增加趋势;草地NDVI以1995年为界呈先波动下降后波动上升趋势;人口和GDP呈指数增长趋势。各地区环境及其变化同样存在差异。环境变化给草地畜牧业发展、脆弱的牧民生计以及人地关系协调造成挑战。(2)以依存度反映区域对草地畜牧业的依赖程度,具体以牧业增加值占GDP比重反映经济依存度,以牧业从业人员占总从业人员比重和少数民族人口占总人口比重反映社会依存度,以草地面积占土地总面积比重反映生态依存度。结果显示,各地区在经济、社会和生态等方面的依存度均很高。草地畜牧业发展需兼顾生态、社会和经济诉求。(3)结合超效率DEA 和Malmquist DEA模型分析经济生产效率。结果显示,基于肉奶产量1984-2014年经济生产效率呈下降趋势,各县差距以1994年为界呈先波动缩小后波动扩大趋势;基于牧业增加值1997-2014年经济生产效率呈波动上升趋势,以2000年为界各县差距呈先缩小后扩大趋势。技术变化和规模效率变化是经济生产效率变化的主要原因,纯技术效率变化较小。Tobit回归分析显示,公共财政支出、人口、活动层和生长季节平均气温对基于肉奶产量的经济生产效率影响较大;公共财政支出、年末存栏、人口和活动层对基于牧业增加值的经济生产效率影响较大。增加资本投入、提高牧民素质、加强草地生态保护等有助于提升经济生产效率。(4)借助修正最小二乘法测度社会生产效率。结果显示,各地区社会生产效率基本呈上升趋势,但是存在差距且差距呈扩大趋势。回归分析表明,人均公共财政支出、每万人拥有医疗床位和每万人拥有中学教师对社会生产效率影响较大,增加公共财政支出尤其是有关畜牧业、医疗和教育等方面的支出以及医疗卫生条件改善等均有助于草地畜牧业社会生产效率提升。(5)结合超效率DEA 和Malmquist DEA模型分析生态生产效率。结果显示,基于肉奶产量1984-2014年生态生产效率呈波动上升趋势,以2011年为界区域差距呈先波动扩大后波动缩小趋势;基于牧业增加值1997-2014年草地畜牧业生态生产效率呈指数上升趋势,区域差距呈扩大趋势。生态生产效率变化主要源于技术变化和规模效率变化。Tobit回归分析表明,生长季节平均气温、生长季节降水、牧业从业人员、每万人拥有中学生、全社会固定资产投资和适龄母畜对基于牧业增加值的生态生产效率影响显著;除了每万人拥有中学生和全社会固定资产投资,均对基于肉奶产量的生态生产效率影响较大。加强草地水利建设、减少年末牲畜存栏并提高母畜比例、提高劳动者素质、提高技术与管理水平、增加并改善资本投入、加强生态保护等有助于提高生态生产效率。(6)将经济生产效率、社会生产效率和生态生产效率视为三维坐标轴上的3个点,以原点到3点所构成平面的距离作为综合生产效率。2000年和2010年平均以班玛县最高;除了玉树市,各地区综合生产效率呈上升趋势,但是差距有所扩大。综合生产效率变化主要源于社会生产效率和生态生产效率变化。(7)基于生产效率视角,提出生态生产效率优先和社会生产效率优先的人地关系协调理念。基于经济生产效率提升提出产业增值模式;基于社会生产效率提升提出“造血”模式和减灾模式;基于生态生产效率提升提出退化草地修复模式。哈隆村和钻多村案例表明,通过重组和整合草地畜牧业生产要素、增加投入、提高牧民素质、提高技术与管理水平、提高抗灾能力以及发展替代产业等能够提高草地畜牧生产效率,促进草地畜牧业生态化、产业化和集约化发展,进而实现高寒草地人地关系协调和畜牧业可持续发展。 
Other AbstractClimate warming, cryosphere degradation and the increasing disturbance of human activities have had far-reaching consequences on the alpine grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the vulnerable and sensitive area of the ecological environment, and had a significant impact on the development of grassland-based animal husbandry. However, grassland-based animal husbandry also affects the health and stability of the grassland ecosystem, acting directly or indirectly on environmental changes. As the main economic activity of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the main livelihood source of herdsmen, the important foundation of social stability and the main carrier of grassland culture inheritance, grassland-based animal husbandry has great social and economic significance as well. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the sustainable development of grassland-based animal husbandry and the coordination of man-land relations. However, improving the production efficiency is the key to realizing the sustainable development of grassland-based animal husbandry and the coordination of man-land relations. In view of this, this dissertation takes the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers as the study region. Meanwhile, based on the county scale, it uses the socio-economic statistics, meteorological data and remote sensing satellite data to quantitatively analyze the production efficiency of grassland-based animal husbandry and the influencing factors from four aspects, namely the economic production efficiency, the societal production efficiency, the ecological production efficiency and the comprehensive production efficiency, by constructing analysis indicators and measurement models, so as to explore the coordination modes of man-land relations. Furthermore, it is aimed at providing reference for the study of production efficiency, the sustainable development of grassland-based animal husbandry and the coordination of man-land relations.(1) The added value of animal husbandry in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers presented the exponential growth trend; the output of meat and milk showed the increasing trend in fluctuation; and the livestock population at the end of the year showed the decreasing trend. However, there were differences in the production and its change of grassland-based animal husbandry development among various regions. Furthermore, there are many problems in the development of grassland-based animal husbandry, such as overgrazing, non-optimal livestock structure, low level of industrialization and extensive management. The warming trend was obvious in various regions; the year 1997 was regarded as the boundary, and the precipitation in the growing season showed the decreasing-increasing trend in fluctuation; the thickness of active layers showed the increasing trend in fluctuation; the year 1995 was taken as the boundary, grassland Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) presented the downward-upward trend in fluctuation; and the population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the exponential growth trend. Also, the environment and its changes among various regions are different. And environmental changes pose challenge to the development of grassland-based animal husbandry, vulnerable pastoral livelihoods and the coordination of man-land relationship.(2) Dependence index was used to reflect the regional reliance on grassland-based animal husbandry. Specifically, the proportion of the added value of animal husbandry in GDP was used to reflect the economic dependence, and the proportion of animal husbandry employees in the total employees as well as the proportion of ethnic minority population in the total population were used to reflect the social dependence, while the proportion of the grassland area in the total land area was used to reflect the ecological dependence. The results showed that the economic, social and ecological dependence of various regions were relatively high. In order to develop grassland-based animal husbandry, it is necessary to take into account the ecological, social and economic demands. (3) The economic production efficiency was analyzed based on super efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist DEA model. It was indicated from the results that on the basis of the output of meat and milk, between 1984 and 2014, the economic production efficiency showed the decreasing tendency, while the year 1994 was regarded as the boundary, and the gap between counties presented the narrowing-widening trend in fluctuation; based on the added value of animal husbandry, between 1997 and 2014, the economic production efficiency showed the upward trend in fluctuation, while the year 2000 was taken as the boundary, and the gap between counties presented the narrowing-widening trend. Changes in technology and scale efficiency were the main reasons for the changes in the economic production efficiency, and the changes of the pure technical efficiency are relatively small. From the Tobit regression analysis, it was seen that the public finance expenditure, population, active layers and average temperature in the growing season had a greater impact on the economic production efficiency based on the output of meat and milk; the public finance expenditure, the livestock population at the end of the year, population and active layers greatly affected the economic production efficiency based on the added value of animal husbandry. It is helpful to improve the economic production efficiency by increasing the capital investment, improving the quality of herdsmen, strengthening the ecological protection of grassland and so on. (4) The societal production efficiency was evaluated with the Corrected Ordinary Least Squares. It was suggested from the results that the societal production efficiency of the various regions showed the upward trend, but there were differences among regions and the gap presented the widening tendency. The regression analysis showed that public expenditure per capita, medical beds every 10000 people and middle school teachers every 10000 people have a greater impact on the societal production efficiency. It is helpful to improve the societal production efficiency by increasing public expenditure, especially on grassland-based animal husbandry, health and education, and improving medical conditions.(5) The ecological production efficiency was analyzed based on super efficiency DEA and Malmquist DEA model. It was indicated from the results that based on the output of meat and milk, between 1984 and 2014, the ecological production efficiency showed the upward trend in fluctuation, while the year 2011 was regarded as the boundary, and the gap between regions presented the widening-narrowing trend in fluctuation; based on the added value of animal husbandry, between 1997 and 2014, the ecological production efficiency of grassland-based animal husbandry presented the exponential growth trend, and the gap between regions showed the widening trend. Changes in the ecological production efficiency mainly resulted from the changes in technology and scale efficiency. From the Tobit regression analysis, it was seen that the average temperature in the growing season, precipitation in the growing season, animal husbandry employees, the number of middle school students in per 10000 people, the total social investment in fixed assets and female livestock in season had a remarkable influence on the ecological production efficiency based on the added value of animal husbandry; except the number of middle school students in per 10000 people and the total social investment in fixed assets, other indicators greatly affected the ecological production efficiency based on the output of meat and milk. It is helpful to improve the ecological production efficiency by strengthening the grassland water conservancy construction, reducing the livestock population at the end of the year, increasing the proportion of female livestock, improving the laborers’ quality, improving the technology and management level, increasing and improving the capital investment, strengthening the ecological protection and so on. (6) The economic production efficiency, the societal production efficiency and the ecological production efficiency were regarded as the three points on the three-dimensional coordinate axis, and the distance from the origin to the plane formed by the three points was taken as the comprehensive production efficiency. In 2000 and 2010, the comprehensive production efficiency of Banma County was both highest on average; the comprehensive production efficiency was showed the upward trend in the various regions, except in Yushu City, but the gap among the regions in 2010 was widening compared with that in 2000. Changes in the comprehensive production efficiency mainly resulted from the changes in the societal production efficiency and the ecological production efficiency.(7) Based on the perspective of production efficiency, the idea of the priorities of ecological production efficiency and societal production efficiency ware proposed to coordinate man-land relationship. On the basis of economic production efficiency improving, industrial increment mode was proposed; “hematopoietic” mode and disaster mitigation mode were put forward in accordance with the societal production efficiency improving; and based on the ecological production efficiency improving, this study put forward degraded grassland restoration mode. From the case study of Halong Village and Zuanduo Village, it is indicated that it is possible to improving production efficiency and promote ecological, industrial and intensive development of grassland-based animal husbandry through reorganizing and integrating production factors, increasing investment, improving the quality and capacity of herdsmen, improving technology and management level, improving capacities of prevent or resist disaster, and developing alternative industries, so as to realize the coordination of man-land relationship of alpine grassland and the sustainable development of animal husbandry. 
Pages148
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/24604
Collection山区发展研究中心
Affiliation中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
朱付彪. 江河源区高寒草地畜牧业生产效率及人地关系协调模式[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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