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基于InVEST模型的三峡库区水源涵养功能时空变化研究
Alternative TitleStudy on Spatial and Temporal Variation of Water Conservation Function in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on InVEST Model
王尧
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor徐佩
2018
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline环境工程
KeywordInVEST模型 三峡库区 水源涵养功能 时空变化 影响因素
Abstract生态系统的水源涵养功能主要表现为:调蓄、削洪(削减洪峰)以及净化水质三个方面,能够减缓水土流失,维持水量,并且净化水质。在全球气候变化以及快速城镇化的背景下,气候与土地利用/覆被发生了巨大的改变,使生态环境遭受了破坏,导致生态系统的水源涵养功能也随之下降。三峡库区的水源涵养功能对国家的生态安全意义非凡。本研究基于月尺度InVEST模型,采取解译、插值等方法获取三峡库区1985年、1995年、2005年和2015年4期的水源涵养模拟结果。分析了三峡库区在建库前后30年间水源涵养功能的时空变化特征,并从土地利用/覆被变化和气候变化两个方面对库区水源涵养功能时空变化的影响因素进行了分析。研究的主要结论如下:(1)根据模型模拟结果,综合来看,模型结果的相对误差平均值为1.05%,说明模拟结果较好,误差可接受。1985、1995、2005、2015年,三峡库区平均水源涵养深度分别为452.88mm、422.93mm、340.55mm、335.08mm;水源涵养量分别为 253.16亿m3 、236.42亿m3 、190.37亿m3 、187.31亿m3 。1985-2015年,三峡库区的水源涵养功能呈现出持续减少的趋势。总体上,除了嘉陵江与长江交汇的重庆市主城区域之外,三峡库区的水源涵养功能呈东北高西南低的分布特征。三峡库区水源涵养量减少最大的区域和建设用地增加的区域基本一致;因此,城市化扩张对三峡库区的水源涵养功能产生了较大的负面影响。(2)1985-2015年,①三峡库区年降水量整体呈现显著下降趋势,变化速率为-1.62mm/a(α=0.05);空间上,三峡库区大部分范围的年降水量变化呈现出减少的趋势,仅有库区西南部分的很小范围有增加的趋势,这与水源涵养量的变化基本一致。因此,大部分地区的降水量是影响库区水源涵养功能变化的主要气候因素。②三峡库区平均气温呈显著的增加趋势,平均升温速率为0.04℃/a(α=0.01),说明三峡库区的增暖趋势较明显;空间分布上,库区的气温变化趋势大部分区域为增加,而库区北部的增加趋势最明显,这与水源涵养量的变化基本呈现负面的影响关系。③三峡库区的年均潜在蒸散发为 883.27 mm,呈较明显的增加趋势,其变化趋势为1.605 mm/a(α=0.05)。空间分布上,库区的潜在蒸散发变化趋势均为增加,且库区中部的增加趋势最明显,这与水源涵养量的变化基本呈现负面的影响关系。④三峡库区林地、建设用地、水域和未利用地的面积均有不同程度的增加,草地和耕地的面积均有不同程度的减小;整体上,1985-2015年,三峡库区土地利用/覆被分布格局变化较大,尤其在1995-2005年10年间有大范围的土地类型变动,这与这期间三峡库区的移民、大坝蓄水、城镇建设和退耕还林以及复垦的政策实施有很大关系。(3)通过情景分析,本研究评估了气候变化对三峡库区水源涵养功能的影响,以及土地利用/覆被变化对库区水源涵养功能的影响;并且深入地分析两者对三峡库区水源涵养功能的影响程度。在第一种理论情景下,土地利用/覆被未发生改变,气候变化为主要的驱动因素。总的来说,1985-2015年,三峡库区水源涵养功能呈现出减少的趋势,主要原因在于这期间不但气温增加,且降水也呈减少的趋势,故气候要素的变化对水源涵养量主要起到负面的作用。在第二种理论情景下,即气候要素没有发生变化,土地利用/覆被变化为主要的驱动因素。总体来说,1985~2015年间,三峡库区的水源涵养量功能也呈现持续性减少的趋势,因此可以说,研究期内,三峡库区土地利用/覆被的变化对水源涵养功能主要起到负面的作用。
Other AbstractThe water conservation function of ecosystem mainly manifests itself in three aspects: adjusting storage, cutting floods (reducing flood peaks), and purifying water quality, and plays an important role in reducing soil erosion, maintaining water volume in the river basin, and purifying water quality. Under the background of global climate change and rapid urbanization, the climate and land use/cover change have undergone tremendous changes, which have destroyed the ecological environment and led to a decline in the water conservation function of the ecosystem. The water conservation function of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is of great significance to the national ecological security. This study is based on the InVEST seasonal water yield model and uses methods such as interpretation and interpolation to obtain simulation results of water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015. The spatio-temporal changes of water conservation functions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area before and after the establishment of the reservoir were analyzed. The factors affecting the spatio-temporal changes of water conservation functions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area were analyzed from two aspects of land use/cover change and climate change.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1) According to the model simulation results, the average relative error of the model results is 8.53%, indicating that the simulation results are good and the errors are acceptable. In 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015, the average depth of water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was 452.88mm, 422.93mm, 340.55mm, and 335.08mm, respectively;Water conservation amounts to 25.316 billion m3, 23.642 billion m3,19.037 billion m3, and 18.731 billion m3, respectively. From 1985 to 2015, the water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area continued to decrease. From 1985 to 2015, the average and total water conservation in most of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed a decreasing trend, and only the seven basins located in the southwest of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed an increasing trend. In general, apart from the main urban area of Chongqing where the Jialing River meets the Yangtze River, the depth of water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is characterized by a distribution pattern that is high in the northeast and low in the southwest. The area with the largest decrease in water conservation is basically the same as the increase in construction land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Therefore, the expansion of urbanization had a significant impact on the water conservation of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. (2) From 1985 to 2015, ①the annual precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed a significant downward trend, with a rate of change of -1.62 mm/a (α=0.05); spatially, annual precipitation changes in most areas of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed a decrease trend, only a small area in the southwestern part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area had an increasing trend, which is basically the same as the change of water conservation. Therefore, the precipitation in most areas is the main climatic factor that affects the change of water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. ②The average temperature in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed a significant increase trend, with an average temperature increase rate of 0.04°C/a (α=0.01), indicating that the warming trend in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was obvious; in terms of spatial distribution, the temperature change trend in most regions was increasing, the increase trend in the northern part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is the most obvious. This had a negative correlation with the change of water conservation. ③ The annual average potential evapotranspiration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was 883.27 mm, showing a clear increasing trend. The change trend was 1.605 mm/a(α=0.05). In terms of spatial distribution, the potential evapotranspiration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was increasing, and the increase trend in the central area was the most obvious. This had a negative correlation with the change of water conservation. ④ The area of forest land, construction land, water areas and unused land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area had increased to varying degrees. The area of grassland and cultivated land had been reduced to varying degrees. Overall, from1985 to 2015, the pattern of land use/cover change had changed greatly, especially in the ten years between 1995 and 2005, there was a wide range of land type changes, which had a lot to do with the implementation of the policies of resettlement, dam water storage, urban construction, returning farmland to forests, and reclamation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area during this period. (3) Through scenario analysis, this study assesses the impact of climate and land use/cover change on water conservation, and provides in-depth analysis of the influence level of climate and land use/cover change on the water conservation function in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Under the first theoretical scenario, where land use/coverage has not changed, climate change is the main driver. In general, from 1985 to 2015, the water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed a decreasing trend. The main reason was that during this period, not only did the temperature increase, but the precipitation also showed a decreasing trend. Therefore, changes in climate factors played a major negative role in water conservation. Under the second theoretical scenario, where climate factors have not changed, land use/cover change is the main driver. In general, from 1985 to 2015, the water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed a continuous decrease, which indicates that the land use/cover change played a major negative role in water conservation during the study period. 
Pages91
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/24761
Collection山区发展研究中心
Affiliation中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
王尧. 基于InVEST模型的三峡库区水源涵养功能时空变化研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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