IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Alternative TitleThe inpact mechanism of climate warming on mountain hazards in the southeast of Tibet
Thesis Advisor崔鹏
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline自然地理学
Keyword气候变暖 冰川泥石流 冰湖溃决 灾变条件 藏东南
Other AbstractBy analyzing meteorological data and mountain hazards events since 1960, we summed up the characteristics of the extreme climate change in Tibet and found the relationship between the mountain hazards formation and climate extremes. And we determined the key factors based on the change of environment that benefits the occurrence of hazards. Through the analysis of the characteristic space of each factor, we created the climate model of the disaster and identified the thresholds of model. Finally, we predict the future trend of mountain hazards activities in the southeast of Tibet by using the RCP scenario model of climate change.The thesis mainly achieved the following results1. In view of the lack of meteorological data in southeastern Tibet, a set of regional meteorological data with high accuracy have been developed by using the method of Anusplin, and ThiessenPolygons-based TRMM precipitation correction. The error evaluation results show that the mean error of the temperature interpolated data is less than 0.9 ℃and the average error of cumulative precipitation for 30 days is 15.24 mm, which can be used to the weather conditions analysis of mountain hazards in Tibet. These regional data fill the gap the acquisition of temperature and precipitation in the non-monitoring area in southeastern Tibet.2. Through remote sensing interpretation and meteorological data analysis since 1960s from the time scale of decadal, annual, seasonal and monthly respectively. The reasons for the abrupt change of extreme climate, seasonal and regional extreme climate change in Tibet are revealed from the aspects of atmospheric circulation, water vapor flux and topography. Moreover, the changes of glacier, glacial lake and snow accumulation in southeastern Tibet were analized during the past 50 years. 3. According to the formation mechanism of glacial debris flows and glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) triggered by glacier collapse, some key climatic factors were selected to build the hazards (glacial debris flows and GLOF) identification models in the annual climate change and the short-term weather condition, and the climate threshold of models were determined.4. The comprehensive model, considering terrain ground surface environment and climate background, were built to assess the risk of glacial debris flows and GLOF triggered by glacier collapse, respectively. What’s more, the activity trends of mountain hazards in the southeast of Tibet were predicted by the future change of temperature, precipitation and glacier under the RCP2.6 scenario model. The results show that the future climate environment is beneficial to the outbreak of large mountain disasters. Finally, 12 debris flow gullies and 25 glacial lakes have high harzard probability in the future according to comprehensive changes of the area of glacial lakes, the hazard degree of terrain and the land surface of debris flows gullies.
Document Type学位论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
贾洋. 气候变暖对藏东南山地灾害的影响机制[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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