IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
西南山区泥石流灾害与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件时空耦合关系分析
其他题名Analysis of the space-time coupling relationship between the debris flow disaster and the El Nino and La Nina event in the southwest mountainous area
高云建
学位类型硕士
导师陈宁生
2018
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点北京
学位专业建筑与土木工程
关键词西南山区 泥石流灾害 厄尔尼诺 拉尼娜 时空耦合关系
摘要泥石流灾害的暴发与极端气候关系密切,西南山区泥石流灾害的暴发与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件导致极端气候间接相关。伴随着全球气候变暖,厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件的频繁发生,导致全球多地暴发极端天气,从而导致泥石流灾害的暴发。本文统计西南山区234次泥石流灾害数据及厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件数据,探讨西南山区泥石流与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件的时空耦合关系特征。泥石流灾害数据,包括泥石流灾害点的基本概况、年值降雨数据、多年平均年降雨数据、月值降雨数据、多年平均月降雨数据。厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件数据,主要包括暴发时间、持续周期、暴发强度等。本文运用GIS、origin、SPSS等技术和软件,通过统计和分析,得出以下研究结果: 1、在厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件影响下西南山区泥石流灾害具有数量更多、灾害性更强、范围更广等特点。厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜年造成人员死亡和财产损失是正常年份的1.5倍。厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜年造成≥20人死亡的重大型泥石流灾害是正常年份的2.6倍。厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件使得西南山区泥石流灾害分布更广泛。 2、无论从大区域或是小地区,西南山区降雨量与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件关系密切。在厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件影响下,西南山区降雨更为极端,波动性强。厄尔尼诺年降雨量略偏低于正常年份,拉尼娜年降雨量明显偏高于正常年份。季节性降雨波动和降雨强度存在差异。从年际变化来看,西南地区的厄尔尼诺年降雨量较正常年份略少。在西南地区9处小区域范围,厄尔尼诺事件对降雨的增减影响不大,但导致降雨更为极端。对于拉尼娜年,无论大区域还是9处小区域,降雨量总体上较正常年份明显偏多。厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜转换年在大范围内降雨量较正常年份偏多,小区域范围内特征不明显。从月际变化来看,在厄尔尼诺年的夏秋季节,西南山区降雨量波动异常极端,波动性大,冬春季节,降雨量偏低,且波动小。在拉尼娜年夏秋季节降雨同样比较异常,但是冬春季节降雨量明显高于厄尔尼诺年,四季降雨量差值无厄尔尼诺年极端。总体而言,在厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件影响下,西南山区9处区域降雨响应较为明显,降雨天气更为异常,极端天气频发。 3、从时间过程来看,西南山区泥石流灾害在厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件影响下具有逐年增加的趋势,同时拉尼娜年比厄尔尼诺年增加更明显。从20世纪50年代开始至今,厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜年西南山区泥石流灾害暴发频率有明显的增加趋势,拉尼娜年增长趋势大于厄尔尼诺年。从月际变化来看,厄尔尼诺年、厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜转换年对西南山区泥石流的暴发有效作用时长较短,拉尼娜年相对较长。厄尔尼诺年、拉尼娜年、厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜转换年诱发泥石流灾害暴发的比率分别为0.28、0.386、0.268,拉尼娜年对西南山区泥石流暴发的作用大于厄尔尼诺年和厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜转换年。 4、从空间分布来看,厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件对西南山区泥石流灾害的暴发比正常年份更明显,地区间存在差异,同时拉尼娜年比厄尔尼诺年影响更明显。从年际变化来看,西南山区9个泥石流灾害多发区域中,厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜年泥石流灾害密度为5.4次/km2,正常年份泥石流灾害密度为2.6次/km2。其中,厄尔尼诺年、拉尼娜年、转换年泥石流灾害密度为2.3次/km2、2.5次/km2、2.5次/km2。从月际变化来看,西南五省厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜泥石流暴发次数和正常年份相比其比值分别为:0.98、2.8、6、2.6、2.64,平均值为3。因此,西南山区厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件对泥石流灾害暴发影响效率是正常年份的3倍。 5、西南山区泥石流灾害与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件的关系,具有情况复杂、涉及范围广、作用因素多等特征。厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件以“遥相关”的形式间接控制着西南地区的环流系统和天气状况。随着全球气候变暖,厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件强度增加、活动频繁,极端气候事件增加,进而导致泥石流灾害的暴发。拉尼娜年的冬季,我国西南地区冬季风偏强,降雨偏多,出现冷冬,从而较容易导致泥石流的暴发。在厄尔尼诺年的夏季,极端天气频繁,降雨量波动性大,易诱发泥石流灾害。在拉尼娜年夏季,西南地区主要以阴凉气候为主,降雨量偏多,易诱发泥石流灾害。从空间范围来看,我国西南地区各省泥石流灾害的活动,与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的活动具有一致的变换特征,间接印证了西南山区泥石流灾害与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件关系密切。 
其他摘要The debris flow disaster is closely related to extreme climate, and the debris flow disaster in southwest mountainous area is indirectly related to the El Nino and La Nina event. With the global warming, the frequent occurrence of El Nino and La Nina events leads to extreme weather in many places in the world, which can easily lead to debris flow. In this paper, 234 debris flow disaster data in southwest mountainous area are analyzed, and the characteristics of space-time coupling between debris flow and El Nino and La Nina event in southwest mountainous area are discussed. First of all, the debris flow disaster data, including the basic situation of debris flow disaster point, annual rainfall data, annual average rainfall data, monthly rainfall data, average monthly rainfall data. Secondly, El Nino and La Nina event data, including outbreak time, duration, outbreak intensity and so on. This paper mainly base on the analysis of statistical methods, using GIS, Origin and SPSS and other technologies and software, through statistics and analysis and where the the following results are obtained: 1. Under the influence of El Nino and La Nina event, debris flow disaster in southwest mountainous area has the characteristics of more quantity, stronger disaster and wider range. First, in the El Nino and La Nina year ,the debris flow disaster is 1.5 times that of a normal year. Secondly, the major debris flow disasters caused by El Nino-La Nina in which more than 20 people died were 2.6 times higher than those in normal years. Finally, under the influence of El Nino and La Nina event, debris flow disasters are more widely distributed in southwest mountainous areas. 2. In terms of rainfall dimension, the rainfall in southwest mountainous area is closely related to El Nino and La Nina event, whatever in large area and small area. Under the influence of El Nino and La Nina event, the rainfall in southwest mountainous area is more extreme and fluctuating. The annual rainfall of El Nino is slightly lower than that of the normal year, and the annual rainfall of La Nina is obviously higher than that of the normal year. There are differences between seasonal rainfall volatility and rainfall intensity. First, look at the year-to-year changes. From the point of view of the whole southwest region, the annual rainfall of El Nino is slightly less than that of the normal year. From the point of view of the nine small regions, the El Nino event has little effect on the increase or decrease of rainfall, but it leads to more extreme rainfall; La Nina year, whether from a large region, and from the view of 9 small regions, the rainfall is obviously higher than that of normal year, the rainfall of El Nino and La Nina conversion year is more than that of normal year in a large range, but the characteristics of small area is not obvious. Secondly, in the summer and autumn season of El Nino year, the fluctuation of rainfall in southwest mountainous area is extreme, large, low in winter and spring, and low in winter and spring.The rainfall in the summer and autumn seasons in La Nina is also abnormal, but the rainfall in winter and spring is obviously higher than that in El Nino year, and there is no extreme El Nino year in the four seasons. In general, under the influence of El Nino and La Nina event, the rainfall response is obvious, rainfall weather is more abnormal and extreme weather occurs frequently in the southwest mountainous area. 3. According to the time dimension, the debris flow disaster in southwest mountainous area has the trend of increasing year by year under the influence of El Nino and La Nina event, and the increase of La Nina year is more obvious than that of El Nino year. First of all, from the point of view of inter annual change, since 1950s, the frequency of debris flow in southwest mountainous area of El Nino and La Nina year has obviously increased, and the annual increase trend of La Nina is larger than that of El Nino year. Secondly, the effective time of El Nino year, El Nino and La Nina transition year on debris flow outbreak in southwest mountainous area is shorter, and La Nina year is relatively long. In El Nino year, La Nina year and El Nino and La Nina transition year, the rate of debris flow outbreak induced by El Nino and La Nina conversion year is 0.28 ,0.386 and 0.268 respectively. The use of La Nina year for debris flow outbreaks in southwest mountainous area is greater than that in El Nino year and El Nino La Nina transition year. 4. From the spatial dimension, the El Nino and La Nina event has more obvious impact on debris flow in southwest mountainous area than in normal year, and there are differences between regions, and La Nina year is more obvious than El Nino year. First, look at the year-to-year changes.The density of debris flow disaster is 5.4 times / km 2 in El Nino and La Nina year and 2.6 times / km 2 in normal year in southwest mountainous area. Of these, El Nino year, La Nina year, transition year, debris flow disaster density is 2.3 times/km 2, 2.5 times/km2 and 2.5/km 2 .Secondly, from the point of view of the monthly variation, the ratios of the number of El Nino La Nina debris flow outbreaks in the five provinces of Southwest China compared with the normal year are respectively 0. 982, 2. 8, 6, 2.6 and 2.64, with an average value of 3, respectively.The impact efficiency of El Nino and La Nina event on debris flow in southwest mountainous area is 3 times of that in normal year. 5.The relationship between debris flow disaster and El Nino and La Nina event in southwest mountainous area is characterized by complicated situation, wide range of involvement and many factors. First, the El Nino La Nina event indirectly controls the circulation system and weather conditions in southwest China in the form of remote correlation. Secondly, with the global warming, the El Nino and La Nina event intensity increased, frequent activities, and extreme weather events increased, which led to the debris flow disaster outbreak.Thirdly, in the winter of La Nina, the winter wind is stronger and the rainfall is more in southwest of China, which leads to the occurrence of cold winter, so it is easy to cause debris flow to break out. In the summer of El Nino year, extreme weather is frequent and rainfall fluctuates greatly, which is easy to induce debris flow.In the summer of La Nina, the main climate in southwest China is cool climate, the rainfall is on the high side, and the debris flow is easy to be induced.Finally, from a spatial perspective, the activities of debris flow disasters in southwestern provinces of China are consistent with the activities of the El Nino and La Nina events. It is indirectly proved that debris flow disaster is closely related to El Nino and La Nina event in southwest mountainous area. 
页数106
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/24793
专题山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
作者单位中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
第一作者单位中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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高云建. 西南山区泥石流灾害与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件时空耦合关系分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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