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陆路交通对川西山区经济增长影响的空间异质性
其他题名Spatial heterogeneity influence of transport on economy in the West Sichuan Mountain Areas
杨雪婷
学位类型博士
导师方一平
2018
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点北京
学位专业人文地理学
关键词交通通达性 经济综合水平 农户收入 空间异质性 川西山区
摘要交通是区域经济发展的支撑和保障。我国西部山区地理位置相对封闭,经济积贫积弱,滞后的交通是制约山区经济发展和居民脱贫致富的关键因素,影响了经济潜能释放。2000年西部大开发战略实施在一定程度上改善了山区对外通行条件,打破了山区封闭状态,为经济持续增长开拓出更加广阔的市场空间,然而其交通运输体系不健全、形式单一,陆路交通中仍偏倚公路运输,路网密度低、等级低、通达深度低的问题依旧突出,是我国全面建成小康社会的“短板”。因而,探究山区陆路交通影响的异质性,找到带动山区发展的关键交通因子,对促进山区经济提质增效、居民增收,推动区域协调发展具有重要意义。基于此,论文以川西山区为主要研究区域,以西部大开发战略实施以来的2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年为关键时间节点,在社会经济统计数据、交通统计数据、交通矢量数据、DEM数据基础上,构建交通通达性和经济综合发展指数,利用空间计量模型对不同等级、不同类型陆路交通影响的空间异质性进行定量评估,再以川西523份农户问卷调研数据为支撑,实证交通因素对山区农户增收的影响。最后基于山区交通建设的薄弱环节以及影响山区发展的关键交通因子,提出山区交通与经济发展的对策与建议。主要结论如下:( 1 ) 通达性时空特征与区域差异。西部大开发战略实施以来,川西通达性改善明显,主要表现为公路通达能力提升;空间分布上,公路通达性高值区集中于阿坝州和甘孜州东部、凉山州北部,低值区呈面状分布在甘孜州西部,铁路通达性东高西低,陆路通达性表现出“核心—外围”圈层特点;垂直方向上,交通通达性指数随海拔增加呈波动递减,中低海拔区公路通达性指数值最高,而中海拔区铁路、陆路通达能力最好。四川不同地貌单元比较而言,山区通达水平远落后于平原,而川西山区通达性指数值更是低于山区平均水平,成为四川山区中通达能力的低值集合,但川西通达性优化幅度远高于四川省平原和山区。就通达性区域差异来说,川西山区通达性内部异质性高于四川山区和平原,梯度分异明显,水平空间上,甘孜州内部差异是形成川西通达性差异的主导空间,垂直方向上中高海拔区内部异质性最高,但区域差异呈缩小的态势。( 2 ) 经济发展水平的时空特征与区域分异。川西经济综合发展水平不断提升,其中“十五”期间经济指数增幅较高;空间分布上,经济指数呈西南-东北强西北弱的态势,并呈现明显的空间集聚性,其中,“攀西”为热点区,甘孜州为冷点区,随时间变化“俱乐部趋同”现象增强;垂直方向上,2500m以下中低海拔区经济发展实力雄厚,4000m以上高海拔区是区域经济洼地。与四川省各地貌区相比,川西山区在2000和2015年经济发展水平落后于四川山区平均值,2005和2010年经济指数略高于山区均值,与平原相比势差较大,但川西经济增速更快,经济后劲凸显,区域异质性逐步减小。( 3 ) 不同等级公路的经济增长影响空间异质性。根据GWR计量分析结果,国省道对山区经济综合发展水平提升的边际效应最高,而县乡道和村道对平原推动作用更强,山区村道的阻滞效应明显。相较于山区影响系数均值来说,川西国省道敏感性更高,其次是县乡道,村道掣肘作用显著;从影响程度的空间差异来看,国省道弹性系数西高东低,县乡道南北差异明显,村道影响力从东北—西南向西北递减;垂直方向上,国省道和县乡道具有随海拔增加正向影响凸显的特征,而村道相反,其弹性系数随海拔上升负向影响逐渐加深。( 4 ) 不同类型陆路交通的经济增长影响空间异质性。山区经济受公路、铁路、陆路交通改善的红利相对平原而言显得不足,与四川地貌类型区相比较,川西公路通达水平的改善是地区生产力提高的重要促进因素,影响程度随时间变化逐步递增,相反,铁路、陆路通达性对经济的带动能力相对较小;水平方向上,公路通达能力的改善对川西西部具有最大的带动效应,铁路通达性影响程度从东北向西南递减,陆路通达性影响力呈现出“东高西低”,“南北高中部低”的空间格局;随海拔增加,公路通达性影响系数呈偏斜状“U型”分布,而铁路和陆路通达性影响系数表现出“倒U型”特征,根据系数空间波动可知,中高海拔区内部变差最大,异质性最为突出。( 5 ) 通达水平对农户收入的影响。以国省道和公路交叉口为代表的交通干线、交通节点对1Km范围内的农户收入具有最大的带动作用,国省干线在6Km后交通场逐步消失,而公路节点在10Km范围外无辐射效应。从影响农民人均纯收入的交通因素来看,交通工具持有度、人均交通费用具有显著正向影响,村交叉口距离呈负显著影响,但不同收入层级的农户主导因素各异,到县城距离、村交叉口距离对中低收入组农户制约性较强,中等收入组农户对交通工具持有度、村交叉口等级最敏感,高收入组受交通工具持有度和村交叉口距离影响较大。从影响农户农业收入与非农收入的主导交通因素来看,农户家庭通达水平显著影响农业收入,而村交通可达性的提升对非农收入边际效应更高,其中,人均交通费用对农业中低收入组农户影响更大,农业中等收入组主要受乡政府距离和交通持有能力的影响,农业高收入组、非农中低收入组对国省道距离更加敏感,非农中等收入组、非农高收入组受交通工具持有度的带动作用更大。就家庭非农活动决策而言,到国省道距离、村交叉口类型对农户非农行为具有显著负向影响,而到县政府距离、人均交通费用增加可促进劳动力非农转移。( 6 ) 山区交通与经济发展策略与建议。从山区交通改善方面,构建西部现代交通运输体系、重视交通建设优先序、改善农村公路薄弱环节、创新融资渠道是关键;从山区经济增效方面,需加快制定西部山区发展专项规划、加大政策倾斜力度、构建山区产业链条、培育经济新极点;从山区农户增收方面,充分发挥交通能动性,以教育为重要抓手优化种养结构、合理配置劳动力资源,促进生计类型多元化是核心。
其他摘要Transport infrastructure provides important support of regional economy. For a long time, the delayed performances of transportation system have become a serious bottleneck restricting economic growth and livelihood improvement in the western mountain areas. Since the implementation of the Western Development Strategy in 2000, comprehensive transport network began to take shape, which to an extent broken the isolated condition of mountains and opened up a broader market space for mountainous economic growth. However, the simple traffic network resulted in the high pressure of road transportation, besides, small scale and poor grade of current road infrastructure in mountains is far from meeting the growing transportation requirements of passenger and freight, seriously restrict economic booming in mountains. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the heterogeneity influences of transport and find out the key traffic factors in mountains, so as to improve the economic quality and residents’ income in mountains, consequently promoting regional coordinated development. Taking West Sichuan Mountain Areas as case study area, the article selected 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 year since the implementation of Western Development Strategy as the key time nodes,based on the statistical yearbook, transportation vector data and DEM data, accessibility index and composite economic index were established, subsequently, the heterogeneous effect of accessibility and each grade road on economy was calculated by local regression model (GWR), moreover, based on the questionnaire survey data of 523 rural households in the West Sichuan Mountain Areas, the influence of transport on residents’ income were debated. In this sense, region-specific policies were suggested for the sustainable development of transport facilities as well as economy in the west mountain areas. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The spatial-temporal characteristics and regional differences of accessibility. Since the implementation of Western Development Strategy, the accessibility of West Sichuan Mountain Areas have been improved significantly, especially for road accessibility, apparently, the high value areas of road accessibility were concentrated in the east of Aba Prefecture and Ganze Prefecture as well as northern Liangshan Prefecture, while the lowest accessibility values were widely distributed in western Ganze Prefecture; Rail accessibility kept the spatial pattern of “high east and low west”, whereas comprehensive accessibility followed the rules of “core-periphery structure model”. Gradient difference was also observed in the vertical space, accessibility index gradually decreased with the rise of elevation, road accessibility was optimal in the counties below 2500m, while rail accessibility and comprehensive accessibility were the best in the counties with 2500m-3500m. Comparing with the different geomorphic units in Sichuan Province, the accessibility level of plains was much better than that of mountains, specially, the accessibility index in West Sichuan Mountain Areas was lower than the average level of mountains, while presented greater improvement. In terms of regional differences in accessibility, the internal heterogeneity of West Sichuan Mountain Areas was higher than that of mountains and plains in Sichuan, in the horizontal space, intergroup differences in Ganze Prefecture was the largest, in relation to vertical space, the highest heterogeneity presented in the middle and high elevation areas, while accessibility imbalance have been narrowing.(2) The spatial-temporal characteristics and regional imbalance of economic development level. The economic index in West Sichuan Mountain Areas has been continuously improved from 2000 to 2015, which increased significantly during the “10th Five-Year Plan” period. Obvious regional differences were exhibited in space, economic index gradually decreased from northeast-southwest to northwest, showing obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics, hot spot concentrated in “Panxi” and cold spot located in Ganze Prefecture, and the phenomenon of “club convergence” was enhanced over time. In relation to the composite economic index distribution at each altitude belt, counties below 2500m developed well, while economy in counties above 4000m were in depression. Comparing with each geomorphic counties in Sichuan Province, the development capacity of West Sichuan Mountain Areas was relatively lower, performed far behind than plains. However, the economic growth in West Sichuan Mountain Areas was faster than plains and mountains in Sichuan and regional heterogeneity was gradually decreasing.(3) The spatial heterogeneity influences of different grades of road on economic growth. According to the econometric analysis results of GWR, National & Provincial road generated higher benefits in mountains than plains, while County road and Village road played a greater role in promoting the development of plains, and Village road exerted negative influences on the mountainous economy. Comparing with the mean coefficient in Mountains, economic development in West Sichuan Mountain Areas was most sensitive to National & Provincial road, followed by County road, while Village road took an inverse correlation with economy; Distinct spatial variations and directional heterogeneity were observed in the marginal effect of each grade road in the entire areas, elasticity coefficients of National & Provincial road were higher in the west and lower in the east, different influence were detected in the County road between the south and the north, and the influence of Village road decreased from the northeast- southwest to the northwest; Regarding the coefficient variations in the vertical space, positive influences of National & Provincial road as well as County road were prominent with the increase of elevation, while it was on the contrary for Village road.(4) The spatial heterogeneity effects of different transport accessibility on economic growth. Generally, accessibility exerted greater marginal effect on the economy of plains than mountains, comparing with the geomorphic zone of Sichuan Province, road accessibility was a crucial factor to promote productivity in West Sichuan Mountain Areas, and the influence degree was gradually increasing over time, but the economic driving force of rail was very limited; Spatially varying relationship between accessibility and composite economic index also be identified, road accessibility had the greatest effect on the west margin, and the influence degree of rail accessibility decreased from the northeast to the southwest, whereas the coefficient of comprehensive accessibility presented the spatial pattern that “high east and low west”, and decreasing gradually from south and north to central part; In the vertical space, elasticity coefficient of road accessibility presented the skewed “U-shaped” distribution with elevation rising, in contrast, rail accessibility and comprehensive accessibility showed the “inverted U-shaped” characteristics; In respect to the spatial fluctuation of coefficients, higher-altitude counties exhibited larger range than other altitude belt, showing the most variations. (5) The influence of accessibility on rural households’ income. National & Provincial road and road node played the greatest driving force on the rural households’ income within the range of 1km, additionally, the field effect of National & Provincial road gradually disappeared over 6km, while road node does not serve a useful propose any longer beyond the range of 10km. In relation to the traffic factors affecting per capita net income of farmers, vehicle holding capacity and per capita transportation cost had significantly positive impact, while the distance to village intersection were negatively related to income, one thing need to clarify is that, the dominant factors of rural households with different income levels were diversified, specifically, the distance to county and village intersection were more restrictive to lower-middle income group, middle income group were most sensitive to vehicle holding capacity and the village intersection grade, while high income group were greatly influenced by the vehicle holding capacity and the distance to village intersection. Regarding to the dominant traffic factors affecting agricultural and non-agricultural income, family accessibility of rural households significantly affected agricultural income, while the improvement of village accessibility played greater effect on non-agricultural income, specifically, per capita transportation cost played larger impact on the lower-middle agricultural income group, middle agricultural income group were mainly affected by the distance to township and vehicle holding capacity, and high agricultural income group as well as lower-middle non-agricultural income group were more sensitive to the distance to National & Provincial road, besides, non-agricultural middle income group and high income group were significantly driven by the vehicle holding capacity. Concerning family decisions of non-agricultural activities, the distance to National & Provincial road and the grade of village intersection exerted significantly negative influence on non-agricultural behaviors, however, the distance to county government and per capita transportation cost promote the labor transfer for non-agricultural employment.(6) Strategies and suggestions for the transportation and economic development in the western mountains. From the aspect of mountainous transportation improving, it is crucial to construct the modern transportation system in Western China and attach importance to the priority order of transport construction, meanwhile, improving the weak links of rural roads and making innovations of the financing channels also be necessary; For the economic efficiency improving, it is urgent to speed up the formulation of special plans of mountain areas in Western China and strengthen the policy support efforts, moreover, constructing characteristic industrial chains and cultivating new economic poles is important; In terms of income increasing of rural households in mountains, higher education is the crucial means to improve the ability of competitiveness, furthermore, it is the core to optimize the planting and breeding structure and rationally allocate labor resources, particularly, much importance should be attached to make full use of transportation to promote livelihoods diversification.
页数174
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/24798
专题山区发展研究中心
作者单位中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
第一作者单位中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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杨雪婷. 陆路交通对川西山区经济增长影响的空间异质性[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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