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A SD-MaxEnt-CA model for simulating the landscape dynamic of natural ecosystem by considering socio-economic and natural impacts
Tan, Jianbo1,2,3; Li, Ainong1; Lei, Guangbin1; Xie, Xinyao1,2
Corresponding AuthorLi, Ainong(ainongli@imde.ac.cn)
2019-10-15
Source PublicationECOLOGICAL MODELLING
ISSN0304-3800
Volume410Pages:11
AbstractBackground climate and socio-economy signi?cantly affect the landscape dynamics of natural ecosystem. And the simulated method to understand the landscape dynamics of natural ecosystems in responding to human and natural effects is increasingly important for ecosystem management. In this study, we integrated system dynamics, MaxEnt and cellular automata models (called as SD-MaxEnt-CA model) to consider climatic effects and human activities during the simulation of natural ecosystems landscape dynamics. In the integrated model, the MaxEnt process was used for the interactive coupling of the top-down SD and bottom-up CA, which improve the models ability to accurately acquire the weights of each layer and transition rules during the simulation with the effects of climate changes. This proposed model was applied to simulate the landscape degradation of natural forest caused by the expanding of farmland, tea gardens and rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna from 2000 to 2010, one of the worlds 34 biodiversity hotspots. By the comparison with other algorithms, the MaxEnt achieve a good performance in acquiring the weights of each layer. The spatial consistent between simulated map and actual result reached to 84.2%, indicating the promising grid-to-grid agreement. Proposed model considered the driving of climate changes and socio-economy, which improved the accuracy of simulating the landscape dynamics of natural ecosystems. The method was further used in simulating the landscape dynamics of natural forest in Xishuangbanna from 2010 to 2030 under four different climate scenarios. The variation of conversion area among different climate scenarios is consistent with their response to climate changes. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model is effective for the landscape simulation of natural ecosystems.
KeywordLandscape dynamics simulation Natural ecosystems SD-MaxEnt-CA model Socio-Economy Climate changes
DOI10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108783
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordCELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; XISHUANGBANNA ; BIODIVERSITY ; SCENARIOS ; FOREST ; RISK ; CONSERVATION ; VEGETATION ; EXPANSION
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41631180] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571373] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0600103] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0500201-06] ; Science and Technology Service Network Initiative[KFJ-EW-STS-020-02] ; Strategic Leader Science and Technology project[XDA19030303] ; Scientific Research Foundation of Hunan Education Department[17B004]
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEcology
WOS IDWOS:000487178500007
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Science and Technology Service Network Initiative ; Strategic Leader Science and Technology project ; Scientific Research Foundation of Hunan Education Department
PublisherELSEVIER
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/27143
Collection数字山地与遥感应用中心
Corresponding AuthorLi, Ainong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Res Ctr Digital Mt & Remote Sensing Applicat, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Changsha Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Traff & Transportat Engn, Changsha 410114, Hunan, Peoples R China
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Corresponding Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Tan, Jianbo,Li, Ainong,Lei, Guangbin,et al. A SD-MaxEnt-CA model for simulating the landscape dynamic of natural ecosystem by considering socio-economic and natural impacts[J]. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,2019,410:11.
APA Tan, Jianbo,Li, Ainong,Lei, Guangbin,&Xie, Xinyao.(2019).A SD-MaxEnt-CA model for simulating the landscape dynamic of natural ecosystem by considering socio-economic and natural impacts.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,410,11.
MLA Tan, Jianbo,et al."A SD-MaxEnt-CA model for simulating the landscape dynamic of natural ecosystem by considering socio-economic and natural impacts".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 410(2019):11.
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