IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
基于水土耦合物理机制的区域滑坡概率预报技术研究
Alternative TitleResearch on Physics-based Probabilistic Forecasting Technology of Regional Landslide
徐辉1; 张少杰2; 黎力3,4; 刘敦龙5
2019
Source Publication灾害学
ISSN1000-811X
Volume34Issue:4Pages:86-91
SubtypeArticle
Contribution Rank2
Abstract基于水土耦合物理机制的滑坡预报是通过计算安全系数给出确定性的预报结果,其可靠性依赖模型输入数据的精度,尤其是土体粘结力和内摩擦角。但这些数据尤其在区域尺度上存在较大的不确定性,进而导致安全系数存在不确定性。为解决该问题,引入了蒙特-卡洛随机取值的方法,提出了基于水土耦合物理机制的滑坡概率预报模型,并首次尝试选取西南地区为试验区域开展滑坡预报试验及检验。结果表明: 2017年汛期发生了11次典型的滑坡案例,该模型成功预报9次,成功率达82%。具有较好的预报准确率,可为地质灾害防灾减灾提供技术支撑。
Other AbstractConventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings through calculating the safety factor (Fs) of slopes. However,these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale,resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. To address this issue,Monte Carlo method is adopted and the physics-based probabilistic forecasting model was proposed here,based on which,The model is implemented and evaluated in southwest of China. The testing results show that the model successfully forecasted 9 landslides cases from the 11 total testing cases during 2017,the successful rate reaches 82%,and has a high accuracy of prediction and strong applicability. So it is expected to provide the technology supports for landslide mitigations.
Keyword滑坡,水土耦合 物理机制 概率预报 定量降水估测(QPE) 定量降水预报(QPF)
DOI10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2019.04.016
Indexed ByCSCD
Language中文
CSCD IDCSCD:6589201
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33461
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Corresponding Author黎力
Affiliation1.国家气象中心;
2.中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所;
3.重庆市国土资源和房屋勘测规划院;
4.武汉大学测绘学院;
5.成都信息工程大学软件工程学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
徐辉,张少杰,黎力,等. 基于水土耦合物理机制的区域滑坡概率预报技术研究[J]. 灾害学,2019,34(4):86-91.
APA 徐辉,张少杰,黎力,&刘敦龙.(2019).基于水土耦合物理机制的区域滑坡概率预报技术研究.灾害学,34(4),86-91.
MLA 徐辉,et al."基于水土耦合物理机制的区域滑坡概率预报技术研究".灾害学 34.4(2019):86-91.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
基于水土耦合物理机制的区域滑坡概率预报技(3256KB)期刊论文出版稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[徐辉]'s Articles
[张少杰]'s Articles
[黎力]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[徐辉]'s Articles
[张少杰]'s Articles
[黎力]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[徐辉]'s Articles
[张少杰]'s Articles
[黎力]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 基于水土耦合物理机制的区域滑坡概率预报技术研究_徐辉.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
This file does not support browsing at this time
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.