IMHE OpenIR  > 成都山地所知识仓储(2009年以前)
Method of debris flow prediction based on a numerical weather forecast and its application
Wei, F1; Gao, K1; Cui, P1; Hu, K1; Xu, J2; Zhang, G2; Bi, B2
Source PublicationMonitoring, Simulation, Prevention and Remediation of Dense and Debris Flows
Author of SourceLorenzini, G ; Brebbia, CA ; Emmanouloudis, D
meeting1st International Conference on Monitoring, Simulation, Prevention and Remediation of Dense and Debris Flows
Conference Date2006
Conference PlaceRhodes
Publication PlaceSOUTHAMPTON
PublisherWIT PRESS
Contribution Rank1
AbstractDebris flow is one of the main natural hazards in mountains areas of China, especially in south-western China. Because the region with debris flow hazard is wide and the number of debris flow valleys is great, debris flow prediction is an important measure of debris flow disaster mitigation. A prediction method of debris flow based on a numerical weather forecast was carried out. According to the conditions of debris flow formation including energy, incompact debris and inducing factors (rainfall), the relative height, stratum, fault, land use, total rainfall consisting of effective antecedent precipitation and forecasting precipitation, and maximum precipitation intensity of I hour were selected as factors for prediction of debris flow. A prediction model was set up with these factors and extension theory which is a new kind of knowledge system based on the concepts of matter-element and extension set. In the model, total rainfall and maximum rainfall intensity of 1 hour obtained by a numerical weather forecast are the principle input variables. South-westem China including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and Chongqing which has heaviest debris flow disasters in China was selected as a case study region. An application system of debris flow prediction based on the model was developed with GIS (ArcGIS) for the study region.
Keyworddebris flow prediction numerical weather forecast south-west of China
Indexed ByCPCI
WOS IDWOS:000239378000004
Citation statistics
Cited Times:10[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type会议论文
Corresponding AuthorWei, F
Affiliation1.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences;
2.National Meteorology Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Corresponding Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wei, F,Gao, K,Cui, P,et al. Method of debris flow prediction based on a numerical weather forecast and its application[C]//Lorenzini, G, Brebbia, CA, Emmanouloudis, D. SOUTHAMPTON:WIT PRESS,2006:37-46.
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