IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site
Chen Ning-sheng1; Zhang Yong1,2; Tian Shu-feng1,2; Deng Ming-feng1,2; Wang Tao1; Liu Li-hong1; Liu Mei1,2; Hu Gui-sheng1
Corresponding AuthorChen, Ning-sheng(chennsh@imde.ac.cn)
2020
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
ISSN1672-6316
EISSN1993-0321
Volume17Issue:2Pages:329-339
SubtypeArticle
Contribution Rank1
AbstractDebris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the M-w 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquake-drought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity (frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change (amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include (1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making; (2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012; (3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012-2017, helping the government to recognize the development trend of disasters; (4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.
KeywordRegional debris flow Susceptibility Prediction model Wenchuan earthquake Drought Southwest China
DOI10.1007/s11629-019-5684-4
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordANTECEDENT EARTHQUAKES ; WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE ; COMBINED IMPACTS ; CALIFORNIA ; INITIATION ; CATCHMENT ; SOIL
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41671112] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41861134008] ; National Key Research and Development Plan[2018YFC1505202] ; Sichuan Province Science and Technology Plan Project Key research and development projects[18ZDYF0329]
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000512107000006
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Plan ; Sichuan Province Science and Technology Plan Project Key research and development projects
PublisherSCIENCE PRESS
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33870
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorChen Ning-sheng
Affiliation1.Key of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;
2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10049, China
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Corresponding Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chen Ning-sheng,Zhang Yong,Tian Shu-feng,et al. Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2020,17(2):329-339.
APA Chen Ning-sheng.,Zhang Yong.,Tian Shu-feng.,Deng Ming-feng.,Wang Tao.,...&Hu Gui-sheng.(2020).Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,17(2),329-339.
MLA Chen Ning-sheng,et al."Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 17.2(2020):329-339.
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