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Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China
Yang Hongjuan1,2; Wei Fangqiang3; Ma Zhenfeng4; Guo Haiyan4; Su Pengcheng2; Zhang Shaojie2
Corresponding AuthorWei, Fangqiang(fqwei@imde.ac.cn)
2020
Source PublicationLANDSLIDES
ISSN1612-510X
EISSN1612-5118
Volume17Issue:1Pages:61-77
SubtypeArticle
Contribution Rank1
AbstractDazhou is one of the landslide-prone areas in southwest China. Since rainfall is the primary factor responsible for slope instability in this region, empirical rainfall thresholds may be effective for landslide warning. Thresholds using the intraday rainfall and the effective antecedent rainfall up to 7 days prior to landslide occurrence have been defined for this area. The study region was divided into 6 alert zones. For each zone, the daily rainfall and landslide data in the monsoon season during the period of 2003-2010 were analyzed, and the logistic regression method was employed to fit the dataset and provide diverse probability thresholds. Subsequently, the optimal threshold was identified by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Furthermore, two classes of criteria and the associated indicators were used to determine the three rainfall thresholds for the warning model with four classes of alert (i.e., no warning, moderate warning, high warning, and very high warning). Finally, these thresholds were validated with dataset for the period 2011-2015. It suggests that the optimal threshold derived from ROC analysis, with the probability ranging from 4 to 10%, is suitable for issuing moderate warning, while the probability corresponding to the thresholds for high warning and very high warning varies in the ranges 30-55% and 75-95%, respectively. Performance of these thresholds in the period 2011-2015 is comparable to that in the period 2003-2010, indicating the robustness of them and the potential for practical use.
KeywordRainfall threshold Landslide Logistic regression ROC analysis
DOI10.1007/s10346-019-01270-z
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordSHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; DEBRIS FLOWS ; TRIGGERING THRESHOLDS ; PREDICTION ; DEFINITION ; INITIATION ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; PROVINCE ; DEFINE
Language英语
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology
WOS SubjectEngineering, Geological ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000512067600006
PublisherSPRINGER HEIDELBERG
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33880
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorWei Fangqiang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China;
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Green & Intelligent Technol, Chongqing 400714, Peoples R China;
4.Sichuan Climate Ctr, Chengdu 610071, Peoples R China
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yang Hongjuan,Wei Fangqiang,Ma Zhenfeng,et al. Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China[J]. LANDSLIDES,2020,17(1):61-77.
APA Yang Hongjuan,Wei Fangqiang,Ma Zhenfeng,Guo Haiyan,Su Pengcheng,&Zhang Shaojie.(2020).Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China.LANDSLIDES,17(1),61-77.
MLA Yang Hongjuan,et al."Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China".LANDSLIDES 17.1(2020):61-77.
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