IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China
Fan Xuanmei1; Yang Fan1; Siva Subramanian Srikrishnan1; Xu Qiang1; Feng Zetao1; Mavrouli Olga2; Peng Ming3; Ouyang Chaojun4,5; Jansen John D.1,6; Huang Runqiu1
Corresponding AuthorFan, Xuanmei(fxm_cdut@qq.com) ; Yang, Fan(youngfann@qq.com)
2020
Source PublicationLANDSLIDES
ISSN1612-510X
EISSN1612-5118
Volume17Issue:1Pages:147-164
SubtypeArticle
Contribution Rank5
AbstractSuccessive major landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, dammed the Jinsha River on two occasions, and the subsequent dam breaches instigated a multi-hazard chain that flooded many towns downstream. Analysis of high-resolution aerial images and field investigations unveiled three potentially unstable rock mass clusters in the source area of the landslides, suggesting possible future failures with potential for river-damming and flooding. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect linked to the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. Our model begins with an evaluation of the probability of landslide failure, including runout and river damming, and then addresses the dam breach and resultant flood-hence simulating and visualising an entire disaster chain. The model parameters were calibrated using empirical data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards via seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of potential rock mass failure. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breaching, and flooding are numerically simulated with full consideration of uncertainties among the model input parameters. The maximum dam breach flood extent, depth, velocity, and peak arrival time are predicted at sequential sites downstream. As a first attempt to simulate the full spectrum of a landslide-induced multi-hazard chain, our study provides insights and substantiates the value provided by multi-hazard modelling. The integrated approach described here can be applied to similar landslide-induced chains of hazards in other regions.
KeywordDisaster chain Landslide runout landslide dam breach outburst flood integrated numerical simulation
DOI10.1007/s10346-019-01313-5
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordTIBETAN-PLATEAU ; DAM ; FLOOD ; SICHUAN
Language英语
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology
WOS SubjectEngineering, Geological ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000512067600011
PublisherSPRINGER HEIDELBERG
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33881
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorFan Xuanmei; Yang Fan
Affiliation1.Chengdu Univ Technol, State Key Lab Geohazard Prevent & Geoenvironm Pro, Chengdu 610059, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Twente, Fac GeoInformat Sci & Earth Observat ITC, Enschede, Netherlands;
3.Tongji Univ, Dept Geotech Engn, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geotech & Underground Engn, Shanghai, Peoples R China;
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Surface Proc, Chengdu, Peoples R China;
5.Chinese Acad Sci, IMHE, Chengdu, Peoples R China;
6.Czech Acad Sci, GFU Inst Geophys, Prague, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Fan Xuanmei,Yang Fan,Siva Subramanian Srikrishnan,et al. Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China[J]. LANDSLIDES,2020,17(1):147-164.
APA Fan Xuanmei.,Yang Fan.,Siva Subramanian Srikrishnan.,Xu Qiang.,Feng Zetao.,...&Huang Runqiu.(2020).Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China.LANDSLIDES,17(1),147-164.
MLA Fan Xuanmei,et al."Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China".LANDSLIDES 17.1(2020):147-164.
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