| Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China | |
Fan Xuanmei1; Yang Fan1; Siva Subramanian Srikrishnan1; Xu Qiang1; Feng Zetao1; Mavrouli Olga2; Peng Ming3; Ouyang Chaojun4,5 ; Jansen John D.1,6; Huang Runqiu1
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| Corresponding Author | Fan, Xuanmei(fxm_cdut@qq.com) ; Yang, Fan(youngfann@qq.com) |
| 2020 | |
| Source Publication | LANDSLIDES
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| ISSN | 1612-510X |
| EISSN | 1612-5118 |
| Volume | 17Issue:1Pages:147-164 |
| Subtype | Article |
| Contribution Rank | 5 |
| Abstract | Successive major landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, dammed the Jinsha River on two occasions, and the subsequent dam breaches instigated a multi-hazard chain that flooded many towns downstream. Analysis of high-resolution aerial images and field investigations unveiled three potentially unstable rock mass clusters in the source area of the landslides, suggesting possible future failures with potential for river-damming and flooding. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect linked to the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. Our model begins with an evaluation of the probability of landslide failure, including runout and river damming, and then addresses the dam breach and resultant flood-hence simulating and visualising an entire disaster chain. The model parameters were calibrated using empirical data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards via seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of potential rock mass failure. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breaching, and flooding are numerically simulated with full consideration of uncertainties among the model input parameters. The maximum dam breach flood extent, depth, velocity, and peak arrival time are predicted at sequential sites downstream. As a first attempt to simulate the full spectrum of a landslide-induced multi-hazard chain, our study provides insights and substantiates the value provided by multi-hazard modelling. The integrated approach described here can be applied to similar landslide-induced chains of hazards in other regions. |
| Keyword | Disaster chain Landslide runout landslide dam breach outburst flood integrated numerical simulation |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10346-019-01313-5 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| WOS Keyword | TIBETAN-PLATEAU ; DAM ; FLOOD ; SICHUAN |
| Language | 英语 |
| Quartile | 2区 |
| TOP | 否 |
| WOS Research Area | Engineering ; Geology |
| WOS Subject | Engineering, Geological ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS ID | WOS:000512067600011 |
| Publisher | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33881 |
| Collection | 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
| Corresponding Author | Fan Xuanmei; Yang Fan |
| Affiliation | 1.Chengdu Univ Technol, State Key Lab Geohazard Prevent & Geoenvironm Pro, Chengdu 610059, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Twente, Fac GeoInformat Sci & Earth Observat ITC, Enschede, Netherlands; 3.Tongji Univ, Dept Geotech Engn, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geotech & Underground Engn, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Surface Proc, Chengdu, Peoples R China; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, IMHE, Chengdu, Peoples R China; 6.Czech Acad Sci, GFU Inst Geophys, Prague, Czech Republic |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Fan Xuanmei,Yang Fan,Siva Subramanian Srikrishnan,et al. Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China[J]. LANDSLIDES,2020,17(1):147-164. |
| APA | Fan Xuanmei.,Yang Fan.,Siva Subramanian Srikrishnan.,Xu Qiang.,Feng Zetao.,...&Huang Runqiu.(2020).Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China.LANDSLIDES,17(1),147-164. |
| MLA | Fan Xuanmei,et al."Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China".LANDSLIDES 17.1(2020):147-164. |
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| Fan2020_Article_Pred（15045KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Application Full Text | |
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