IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Alternative TitleSusceptibility Asessment of Landslides Induced by Earthquake Based on Sub-basin
张建强; 崔鹏; 向灵芝; 庄建琦
Corresponding Author崔鹏
Source Publication四川大学学报( 工程科学版)
Other Abstract根据地震诱发的崩塌具有数量大和成区分布的特点,将研究区北川苏宝河流域划分为211个子流域,评价选取子流域的平均高程、最大高差、平均坡度、距离河流距离、沟谷密度和岩石类型等指标,采用Logistic回归的统计学方法进行建模,并且使用ROC曲线和Kappa系数对模型的精度进行评价,其ROC曲线下面积为0.926,Kappa系数为0.690。采用同样的评价方法基于像元对研究区进行建模,模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.814,Kappa系数为0.470,均小于基于子流域的评价模型。使用模型对研究区进行敏感性评价,基于子流域的敏感性评价,有90.04%的崩塌位于高敏感和敏感区域内,而基于像元的敏感性评价,高敏感和敏感区域内只占有68.82%的崩塌。但不同敏感性区域面积比例来看,基于子流域的敏感性评价,有高敏感区域面积过大的缺点。研究进一步提出崩塌响应单元这一概念,即针对崩塌的各影响因子,将研究区划分为比子流域更小的单元,而每个单元内部,对崩塌具有相同的敏感度。; Landslide is one of the most common hazards induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake for its large quantity
and wide distribution. The sub-basin was introduced into the assessment of landslides induced by earthquake. The
Subao River Basin,Beichuan,which was chosen as the study area,was divided into 211 sub-basins,and the average
elevation,maximum relative elevation,average slope gradient,distance to the river,gully density and stone
type were chosen as the assessing factors. The statistical method Logistic regression was used to build the assessing
model. The model was checked by ROC( Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve and Kappa. And the AUC( Aare
Under Curve) and Kappa was 0. 926 and 0. 690,respectively,which was much better than the pixel-oriented susceptibility assessing model build by the same method. The AUC and Kappa was 0. 814 and 0. 470,respectively.
From the susceptibility map,about 90. 04 percent of landslides located in the high susceptible area. The deficiency of the sub-basin oriented assessment was that the area of high susceptible area is too large. So at last the concept of
LRU( Landslide Response Unit) was introduced. The sub-basin could be divided into smaller units by some factors related to landslide. The assessment based on LRU may have a better assessing result.
Keyword崩塌 敏感性 统计学方法 汶川地震
Subject Area灾害学
Funding Organization国家重点基础研究发展计划“973”计划资助项目(2008CB425803);科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAC10B04);中科院知识创新工程重要方向资助项目(KZCX2-YW-Q03-5-2)
Document Type期刊论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
张建强,崔鹏,向灵芝,等. 基于子流域的地震诱发崩塌敏感性评价[J]. 四川大学学报( 工程科学版),2010,42(z1):43-49.
APA 张建强,崔鹏,向灵芝,&庄建琦.(2010).基于子流域的地震诱发崩塌敏感性评价.四川大学学报( 工程科学版),42(z1),43-49.
MLA 张建强,et al."基于子流域的地震诱发崩塌敏感性评价".四川大学学报( 工程科学版) 42.z1(2010):43-49.
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