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Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model
Jin, Xiaoli1; Xu, Chong-Yu2; Zhang, Qi3; Singh, V. P.4,5
Corresponding AuthorJin, XL
2010-03-30
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
Volume383Issue:3-4Pages:147-155
SubtypeArticle
AbstractQuantification of uncertainty of hydrological models has attracted much attention in hydrologic research in recent years. Many methods for quantification of uncertainty have been reported in the literature, of which GLUE and formal Bayesian method are the two most popular methods. There have been many discussions in the literature concerning differences between these two methods in theory (mathematics) and results, and this paper focuses on the computational efficiency and differences in their results, but not on philosophies and mathematical rigor that both methods rely on. By assessing parameter and modeling uncertainty of a simple conceptual water balance model (WASMOD) with the use of GLUE and formal Bayesian method, the paper evaluates differences in the results of the two methods and discusses the reasons for these differences. The main findings of the study are that: (1) the parameter posterior distributions generated by the Bayesian method are slightly less scattered than those by the GLUE method; (2) using a higher threshold value (>0.8) GLUE results in very similar estimates of parameter and model uncertainty as does the Bayesian method; and (3) GLUE is sensitive to the threshold value used to select behavioral parameter sets and lower threshold values resulting in a wider uncertainty interval of the posterior distribution of parameters, and a wider confidence interval of model uncertainty. More study is needed to generalize the findings of the present study. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordConceptual Hydrological Model Uncertainty Bayesian Method Glue
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Technology ; Physical Sciences
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.028
WOS Subject ExtendedEngineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordWATER-BALANCE MODEL ; CHAIN MONTE-CARLO ; METROPOLIS ALGORITHM ; CHAOHE BASIN ; PREDICTION ; CALIBRATION ; CATCHMENT ; INCOHERENCE ; INFERENCE ; SYSTEMS
Language英语
WOS SubjectEngineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000276532700001
Funding OrganizationHohai University(B08048) ; CAS (The Chinese Academy of Sciences) ; Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China(CUHK4627/05H)
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Cited Times:159[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/5604
Collection山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, State Key Lab Lake Sci & Environm, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
5.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Jin, Xiaoli,Xu, Chong-Yu,Zhang, Qi,et al. Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2010,383(3-4):147-155.
APA Jin, Xiaoli,Xu, Chong-Yu,Zhang, Qi,&Singh, V. P..(2010).Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,383(3-4),147-155.
MLA Jin, Xiaoli,et al."Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 383.3-4(2010):147-155.
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