| Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model | |
| Jin, Xiaoli1; Xu, Chong-Yu2; Zhang, Qi3; Singh, V. P.4,5 | |
| 通讯作者 | Jin, XL |
| 2010-03-30 | |
| 发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| ISSN | 0022-1694 |
| 卷号 | 383期号:3-4页码:147-155 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 摘要 | Quantification of uncertainty of hydrological models has attracted much attention in hydrologic research in recent years. Many methods for quantification of uncertainty have been reported in the literature, of which GLUE and formal Bayesian method are the two most popular methods. There have been many discussions in the literature concerning differences between these two methods in theory (mathematics) and results, and this paper focuses on the computational efficiency and differences in their results, but not on philosophies and mathematical rigor that both methods rely on. By assessing parameter and modeling uncertainty of a simple conceptual water balance model (WASMOD) with the use of GLUE and formal Bayesian method, the paper evaluates differences in the results of the two methods and discusses the reasons for these differences. The main findings of the study are that: (1) the parameter posterior distributions generated by the Bayesian method are slightly less scattered than those by the GLUE method; (2) using a higher threshold value (>0.8) GLUE results in very similar estimates of parameter and model uncertainty as does the Bayesian method; and (3) GLUE is sensitive to the threshold value used to select behavioral parameter sets and lower threshold values resulting in a wider uncertainty interval of the posterior distribution of parameters, and a wider confidence interval of model uncertainty. More study is needed to generalize the findings of the present study. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| 关键词 | Conceptual Hydrological Model Uncertainty Bayesian Method Glue |
| WOS标题词 | Science & Technology ; Technology ; Physical Sciences |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.028 |
| 研究领域[WOS] | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 关键词[WOS] | WATER-BALANCE MODEL ; CHAIN MONTE-CARLO ; METROPOLIS ALGORITHM ; CHAOHE BASIN ; PREDICTION ; CALIBRATION ; CATCHMENT ; INCOHERENCE ; INFERENCE ; SYSTEMS |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000276532700001 |
| 项目资助者 | Hohai University(B08048) ; CAS (The Chinese Academy of Sciences) ; Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China(CUHK4627/05H) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/5604 |
| 专题 | 山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 2.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0316 Oslo, Norway 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, State Key Lab Lake Sci & Environm, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA 5.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jin, Xiaoli,Xu, Chong-Yu,Zhang, Qi,et al. Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2010,383(3-4):147-155. |
| APA | Jin, Xiaoli,Xu, Chong-Yu,Zhang, Qi,&Singh, V. P..(2010).Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,383(3-4),147-155. |
| MLA | Jin, Xiaoli,et al."Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 383.3-4(2010):147-155. |
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