Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model
Jin, Xiaoli1; Xu, Chong-Yu2; Zhang, Qi3; Singh, V. P.4,5
通讯作者Jin, XL
2010-03-30
发表期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
卷号383期号:3-4页码:147-155
文章类型Article
摘要Quantification of uncertainty of hydrological models has attracted much attention in hydrologic research in recent years. Many methods for quantification of uncertainty have been reported in the literature, of which GLUE and formal Bayesian method are the two most popular methods. There have been many discussions in the literature concerning differences between these two methods in theory (mathematics) and results, and this paper focuses on the computational efficiency and differences in their results, but not on philosophies and mathematical rigor that both methods rely on. By assessing parameter and modeling uncertainty of a simple conceptual water balance model (WASMOD) with the use of GLUE and formal Bayesian method, the paper evaluates differences in the results of the two methods and discusses the reasons for these differences. The main findings of the study are that: (1) the parameter posterior distributions generated by the Bayesian method are slightly less scattered than those by the GLUE method; (2) using a higher threshold value (>0.8) GLUE results in very similar estimates of parameter and model uncertainty as does the Bayesian method; and (3) GLUE is sensitive to the threshold value used to select behavioral parameter sets and lower threshold values resulting in a wider uncertainty interval of the posterior distribution of parameters, and a wider confidence interval of model uncertainty. More study is needed to generalize the findings of the present study. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词Conceptual Hydrological Model Uncertainty Bayesian Method Glue
WOS标题词Science & Technology ; Technology ; Physical Sciences
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.028
研究领域[WOS]Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
收录类别SCI
关键词[WOS]WATER-BALANCE MODEL ; CHAIN MONTE-CARLO ; METROPOLIS ALGORITHM ; CHAOHE BASIN ; PREDICTION ; CALIBRATION ; CATCHMENT ; INCOHERENCE ; INFERENCE ; SYSTEMS
语种英语
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS记录号WOS:000276532700001
项目资助者Hohai University(B08048) ; CAS (The Chinese Academy of Sciences) ; Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China(CUHK4627/05H)
引用统计
被引频次:143[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/5604
专题山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, State Key Lab Lake Sci & Environm, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
5.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
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Jin, Xiaoli,Xu, Chong-Yu,Zhang, Qi,et al. Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2010,383(3-4):147-155.
APA Jin, Xiaoli,Xu, Chong-Yu,Zhang, Qi,&Singh, V. P..(2010).Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,383(3-4),147-155.
MLA Jin, Xiaoli,et al."Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 383.3-4(2010):147-155.
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