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Alternative TitleProbability Based Rainfall-Induced Landslides Prediction Method in Three Gorges Area
杨宗佶1,2; 乔建平1,2; 张小刚1,2
Corresponding Author杨宗佶
Source PublicationInternational Conference on Engineering and Business Management(EBM2010) ; Proceedings of International Conference on Engineering and Business Management(EBM2010)
Conference Date2010-3-25
Conference Place四川成都
Funding Organization武汉大学;美国James Madison大学;美国科研出版社
Abstract通过对三峡库区万州区降雨型滑坡资料和降雨资料的统计和概率分析,从滑坡与不同雨型、滑坡与日降雨量及暴雨的关系、滑坡发生的前 10 d 内有降雨的天数与连续降雨的天数的比较等方面详细研究了降雨与滑坡的关系。并利用 SPSS 统计分析软件,通过对连续的滑坡集中发育的时段数据进行 Logistic分析,得到滑坡降雨致滑概率,并根据条件概率原理建立降雨型滑坡的概率模型,为三峡库区滑坡发生概率的时间和空间预测提供了一种新的方法。
Other AbstractThree Gorges Area is analyzed and the hydrogeology conditions are introduced through historical data of landslide and rainfall of landslides occurrence in Wanzhou County. The relationship between rainfall and landslide is investigated in respects of rainfall pattern, intraday rainfall, rainstorm, prior effective rainfall, and comparison between the days with rainfall and those with continuous rainfall within 10 days before the landslide; then a quantitative method based on logistic regression and prior effective rainfall is proposed which provides a new way for prevention and prediction of landslides in Three Gorges Area.
Keyword三峡库区 滑坡 降雨 相关性 概率预测模型
Document Type会议论文
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
杨宗佶,乔建平,张小刚. 三峡库区降雨型滑坡概率预测方法研究[C],2010:3385-3388.
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