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Alternative TitleThe Relationship between ENSO and the the Precipitation Extremes along the Middle Reaches ofYangtze River during the Monsoon Season
汶林科; 崔鹏; 杨红娟; 邹强; 向灵芝
Corresponding Author崔鹏
Source Publication山地学报
Other Abstract湖北、湖南和江西沿长江地区的极端降水在长江中游的洪水灾害中发挥着重要的作用。选取可以表征极端降水的7种指数进行降水趋势分析,发现除连续最大降水日数外,1951—2009年间的5—9月>25 mm和>50mm降水日数、>95%与>90%降水量百分位数值的日数以及1 d最大降水量、连续5 d最大降水量都没有明显的变化趋势。相关分析显示雨季的各种极端降水指数与前年9月至当年2月Nino3区海温有较好的正相关关系。; As a flood suffered region, the precipitation extremes of Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi Province along the middle and low reaches ofYangtze River play significant roles in flood formation. Choosing 7 indices to represent the precipitation extremes duringMay to Septemberofevery year and by the trend analysis, we found thatsuch the indices, number ofdays duringmay to Septemberwith rainfallmore than 25, 50mm and 95th and 90th percentiles precipitation, one-day and five-daymaximum precipitation, all show no obvious trend since 1951, however, the maximum continuouswet days (CWD) shows a significant decrease trend. Correlation analysis shows there are good relationship between these indices and the Nino 3 sea level temperature (SST) during formerMay toMuch nextyear, almostall the correlation coefficients pass the 5% significant tes.t During formerSeptember to nextFeb-ruary, except the number ofdayswith rainfallmore than 25 mm, the relationship between other extremes and the former theNino 3 SST aremuch better, and pass0. 01 significant tests. The relationship ofone-daymaximum pre-cipitation is better than thatof five-daymaximum precipitationwithNino 3 SST, and the relationship of the number ofdayswith rainfallmore than 50mm and 95th is better than thatof25mm and 90th percentiles suggest thatVery heavy rainfall events posses very strong relationshipwithNino 3 SST. Based on these strong relationships, theNino 3 SST can be used as a"predictor"ofmonsoon precipitation extremes of themiddle reaches ofYangtzeRiver.
Keyword极端降水 Nino3区海温 趋势 长江中游
Indexed ByCSCD
Funding Organization重点基金项目(41030742);国家自然科学资金项目(40801009)
Citation statistics
Cited Times:4[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
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GB/T 7714
汶林科,崔鹏,杨红娟,等. ENSO与长江流域中游地区雨季极端降水的关系[J]. 山地学报,2011,29(3):229-305.
APA 汶林科,崔鹏,杨红娟,邹强,&向灵芝.(2011).ENSO与长江流域中游地区雨季极端降水的关系.山地学报,29(3),229-305.
MLA 汶林科,et al."ENSO与长江流域中游地区雨季极端降水的关系".山地学报 29.3(2011):229-305.
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