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泥石流预警及其实施方法
Alternative TitleResearch on and implementation of debris-flow forecast and warning
张金山; 崔鹏
Corresponding Author张金山
2012-12
Source Publication水利学报
Volume43Issue:S2Pages:174-180
Other Abstract泥石流预警在减灾实践工作上已取得到了丰硕的成果和明显的效益。在已有研究成果的基础上对泥石流预警进行了定义,并将其分为泥石流预报和泥石流警报两种类型,二者的根本区别是预警信息来源与泥石流暴发时间的关系。预报是在泥石流暴发之前做出的泥石流暴发与否的结论,而警报则是对泥石流暴发或运动过程的监测和判断。泥石流预报目前的研究成果主要集中于降雨型泥石流,在中国大陆地区本文推荐使用蒋家沟泥石流预报模型,并给出了参数获取方法和分级预报的阈值。泥石流预警技术主要有基于泥位、地声、次声等信息监测判断的仪器,目前仍然存在漏报或误报的问题。有效的解决办法是将这些技术组合起来,相互补充和校验。将泥石流简易预警技术、专业预警技术进行组合使用的方式称为泥石流预警的组织体系,主要类型有群测群防、群专结合及专业预警3种。通过技术手段得到泥石流预警结论后还需要进行检验,确定无误后再发出相应级别的预警信息。 
; The previous studies of debris-flow forecast and warning and disaster mitigation have achieved great successes and significant benefits. In this paper we have made a strict definition for debris-flow forecast and warning based on the existing research results. In China, we recommend the Jiangjia Ravine model as the debris-flow forecast technology and proposed the method for gaining parameters and threshold of the graded forecast. The main technologies used by debris-flow warning are the instruments which monitor and determine the information by mud height, earth sound and infrasound. However, the problems of false positives and false negatives still exist in these technologies. The effective method to deal with these problems is to combine these technologies to complement and check each other. The combinations of the simple methods, professional forecast and warning technology is called as the organizational framework of debris-flow forecast and warning. There are three types of the organizational framework: the group monitoring and prevention framework, the semi-professional framework and the professional framework. At last, we issue the corresponding warning message only when the conclusions about debris-flow warning drawn by technical means have been checked all correct.
Keyword泥石流 预警 预报 警报 组织体系
Subject Area自然地理学 ; 灾害学
Indexed ByEI
Language中文
Funding Organization国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题(2011CB409902);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK10B04)
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/6571
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
张金山,崔鹏. 泥石流预警及其实施方法[J]. 水利学报,2012,43(S2):174-180.
APA 张金山,&崔鹏.(2012).泥石流预警及其实施方法.水利学报,43(S2),174-180.
MLA 张金山,et al."泥石流预警及其实施方法".水利学报 43.S2(2012):174-180.
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