IMHE OpenIR  > Journal of Mountain Science  > Journal of Mountain Science-2014  > Vol11 No.2
Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China
ZHUANG Jian-qi; IQBAL Javed; PENG Jian-bing; LIU Tie-ming
Corresponding AuthorPENG Jian-bing
2014-03
Source PublicationJournal of Mountain Science
Volume11Issue:2Pages:345-359
Other AbstractLandslides are increasing since the 1980s in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China. This is due to the increase of the frequency and intensity of precipitation caused by complex geological structures, the presence of steep landforms, seasonal heavy rainfall, and the intensifcation of human activities. In this study, we propose a landslide prediction model based on the analysis of intraday rainfall (IR) and antecedent effective rainfall (AER). Primarily, the number of days and degressive index of the antecedent effective rainfall which affected landslide occurrences in the areas around Qin Mountains, Li Mountains and Loess Tableland was established. Secondly, the antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall were calculated from weather data which were used to construct critical thresholds for the 10%, 50% and 90% probabilities for future landslide occurrences in Qin Mountain, Li Mountain and Loess Tableland. Finally, the regions corresponding to different warning levels were identified based on the relationship between precipitation and the threshold, that is; “A” region is safe, “B” region is on watch alert, “C” region is on warning alert and “D” region is on severe warning alert. Using this model, a warning program is proposed which can predict rainfall-induced landslides by means of real-time rain gauge data and real-time geo-hazard alert and disaster response programs. Sixteen rain gauges were installed in the Xi’an region by keeping in accordance with the regional geology and landslide risks. Based on the data from gauges, this model accurately achieves the objectives of conducting real-time monitoring as well as providing early warnings of landslides in the Xi’an region.
KeywordLandslide Probability Prediction Model Real-time Monitoring Xi’an
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/6848
CollectionJournal of Mountain Science_Journal of Mountain Science-2014_Vol11 No.2
Corresponding AuthorPENG Jian-bing
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
ZHUANG Jian-qi,IQBAL Javed,PENG Jian-bing,等. Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(2):345-359.
APA ZHUANG Jian-qi,IQBAL Javed,PENG Jian-bing,&LIU Tie-ming.(2014).Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China.Journal of Mountain Science,11(2),345-359.
MLA ZHUANG Jian-qi,et al."Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China".Journal of Mountain Science 11.2(2014):345-359.
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