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基于MRW模型的我国旅游和经济增长的关系研究
Alternative TitleA Study on the Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth of China based on MRW Model
Language中文
刘睿
Thesis Advisor李立华
2013
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name硕士
Degree Discipline人文地理学
Keyword旅游 经济增长 关系 Mrw模型
Abstract二战以来全球旅游业的快速发展以及国际学术界关于旅游和经济增长关系的模糊认知使这一议题成为二十世纪六七十年代至今国际学术界研究的热点之一。在明确选题的理论和现实背景的基础上,本文首先对国内外学术界关于旅游和经济增长关系研究的文献进行了回顾,包括经济增长的内涵、经济增长的主要模型,以及旅游和经济增长的关系研究;然后,本文对MRW模型进行了变换,将旅游发展因子引入到模型中;接着,分别采用2005-2009年我国301个地级市以及1997-2005、2007-2010年我国各省(自治区、直辖市)的相关数据,分别采用截面数据和面板数据模型探究我国旅游和经济增长关系,并探究我国旅游业的荷兰病危险。本文主要得到以下几点结论:第一,国外学术界关于旅游和经济增长关系的研究至今已有近半个世纪的历史,但近十余年来,国际学术界的研究进展主要得益于学者们十分注重借鉴经济学、统计学等相关学科的基础理论和最新成果,这些理论不仅很好地支撑和架构了国际学术界的研究,而且促成了旅游和经济增长关系理论体系的初步形成和构建。九十年代中后期以来,国内学术界开始借鉴国际同行的研究范式。然而,虽然国内学术界已开展大量实证研究,但在研究中大多机械套用国外研究方法,而未能借鉴相关学科的理论和成果,特别是经济增长理论,无论是研究框架的建构还是研究结果的解释都显得理论支撑不足,因此研究缺乏深度,更谈不上理论假说提出或理论体系的形成。第二,本文将旅游作为一个经济增长因子引入到MRW模型中,然后分别利用2005-2010年间我国301个地级市及1997-2005、2007-2010我国31个省市区的数据研究了我国旅游和经济增长的关系。研究结果显示即使在其他经济增长因子被控制之后,旅游专门化水平较高的地区仍然倾向于拥有较高的人均GDP,说明旅游和物质资本、劳动力、人力资本等经济增长因子一样,是决定经济增长的独立因素;然后,依据人均GDP指标的大小分别对截面数据和面板数据研究对象进行聚类分析并进行虚拟变量回归,结果在截面数据和面板数据的研究中都发现旅游是造成人均GDP指标高低差异的重要原因,再一次证明旅游是决定经济增长的独立因素。第三,本文将制造业发展因子纳入到MRW模型中,分别基于截面数据和面板数据的研究都证明旅游和工业化并不矛盾,旅游相对规模的扩大不会引起工业相对规模的收缩。相反,两者相关系数为正,这说明旅游发展和工业化是相辅相成的。
Other AbstractThe rapid expansion of tourism all over the world after WWII as well as the insufficient understandings towards the relationship between tourism and economic growth jointly make this issue a hot topic of the English academic world since the 1960s - 1970s. This paper firstly analyzes the empirical and theoretical background of this topic; then, it reviews the relevant literature of this issue, including the conception of economic growth, the representative model of economic growth and studies on the relationship between tourism and economic growth of both international researchers and Chinese ones; afterwards, this paper adjusts the MRW model by introducing tourism as a determinant for economic growth into it; after that, using data of 301 Chinese prefecture-level cities between 2005 - 2009 as well as data of 31 provinces (including Municipalities Directly under the Central Government and Autonomous Regions) of China between 1997 - 2005 and 2007 - 2010 respectively, this paper conducts studies on the relationship between tourism and economic growth of China based on cross - section model and panel - data model respectively, and identifies the risk of Dutch Disease of China tourism. Finally, this paper draws the following conclusion: Firstly, the English academic world has paid great attentions to the relationship between tourism and economic for nearly half a century; however, the progress in research of this issue during recent several years should be mainly attributed to adoption of the basic theories and latest achievements of related disciplines such as economics and statistics. These theories and achievements not only support and construct the studies of the English academic world, but also promote the construction and realization of the theoretical system of this issue. Chinese academic world began to draw lessons from their international peers from mid and late nineties. However, though they have conducted large quantities of empirical studies, they tend to merely adopt the methodologies of the international ones mechanically, rather than adopting the theories and latest achievements of related disciplines. Therefore, both the construction of research framework and the explanations of results tend to be theoretically poor; so, researches generally lack of in-depth probe, and let alone the proposal of theoretical hypothesis or construction of theoretical system. Secondly, this paper introduces tourism into MRW model as a determinant for economic growth, and then studies the relationship between tourism and economic growth by employing data of 301 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2005 to 2009 as well as data of 31 provinces of China between 1997 - 2005 and 2007 - 2010 respectively. The result shows that regions of higher rate of tourism specialization tend to enjoy higher GDP per capita even after other determinents are controled, which means that tourism is equivalent to other determinants for economic growth such as physical capital, human capital and labor. The subsequent dummy variable regression again supports this result. Thirdly, this paper introduces manufacture factor into MRW model, and the both of the regressions based on cross – section data and panel – data show that the expansion of the relative scale of tourism do not necessarily leads to the contraction of manufacture. On the contrary, the correlation coefficient between tourism and manufacure turns out to be positive, which means they seem to be supplements of each other.
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/6980
Collection山区发展研究中心
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘睿. 基于MRW模型的我国旅游和经济增长的关系研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2013.
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