|Alternative Title||The Land Carrying Capacity of Rural Settlement in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area|
|Thesis Advisor||樊杰 ; 邓伟|
|Place of Conferral||北京|
|Keyword||三峡库区 农村聚落 土地承载力 食物承载人口 经济承载人口|
|Abstract||承载力是度量区域可持续发展的重要参量，土地承载力是可持续发展的刚性约束，研究区域的土地承载力可以为可持续发展提供依据。三峡库区地势起伏较大，东北部高，西南部低，既有河谷、台地，又有山地和丘陵，山多坡陡，这种特殊的地形地貌在带来独特自然生态环境的同时，也导致可利用土地资源存量少，后备资源匮乏。加上三峡库区脆弱的陆生生态系统长期受到人类活动的过大压力和非自然化影响，土地利用结构调整困难，人均拥有量低，人地矛盾相当突出。作为山区最基本的社会经济单元和最基础的社会组织单元，山区聚落在山区发展中占据十分重要的地位和作用，然而三峡库区农村聚落具有偏远、封闭和边缘的特征。这些特征使得交通、电力和通讯等各项基础建设十分困难，从而导致贫困区缺乏与外界沟通的渠道，交通不便、信息不畅、物资交流不通畅，外界的生产生活资料难以运进区内，区内的资源和产品也难以运到外部变成商品，即使运出区外，也因高昂的成本而缺乏竞争优势。在库区内部，一些区域的经济发展是以粗放式土地利用为代价的，还有些地区土地节约有度，然而经济增长缓慢，土地利用与经济不能协调发展。 本研究在对已有文献系统综述的前提下，从交叉学科的角度出发，以承载力等地理学研究的相关理论和方法为主轴，以三峡库区典型农村聚落为研究单元，对该地区经济发展、土地利用特征进行了深入分析。在引进表征三峡库区农村聚落土地资源农产品产出的食物承载人口基础上，引进表征三峡库区农村聚落土地资源经济产出的经济承载人口来考虑区域土地资源人口承载力。运用系统动力学模型探究了不同方案下三峡库区农村聚落及内部不同类型农村聚落土地资源的食物承载人口、土地资源的经济承载人口及变化特征。在此基础上，应用Eviews软件采用逐步回归方法测算了三峡库区农村聚落土地资源的经济承载人口和食物承载人口的影响因素，并分析了土地利用-经济发展协调发展度及时空差异。最后提出了三峡库区农村聚落可持续发展的模式及建议。主要有以下结论： （1）三峡库区农村聚落人口、土地利用、经济发展时空差异明显：①丘陵村和山地村平均人口数量相差最大；高城镇化区县的村和近江村人口有减少的趋势，而低城镇化区县的村和远江村人口逐年递增。②丘陵村和山地村的人均耕地面积相当，但是后者的人均可利用耕地面积在所有类型的村中均分别达最小值；远江村的人均耕地面积和人均可利用耕地面积均大于近江村。从2003-2012年，低城镇化区县的村的人均可利用耕地面积逐年增加。③对于农村经济总收入和第一产业收入，丘陵村和高城镇化区县的村分别大于山地村和低城镇化区县的村，而近江村则低于远江村；从2003-2012年，不同类型区域的农村经济总收入、第一产业收入均逐年增加。④对于第一产业收入所占比例，丘陵村、近江村和高城镇化区县的村分别低于山地村、远江村和低城镇化区县的村；从2003-2012年，第一产业收入所占比重有减少的趋势。 （2）2003-2012年三峡库区农村聚落及内部不同类型农村聚落的土地承载力变化显著：①从土地资源的经济产出角度来看，三峡库区人口超载，且土地资源的经济承载人口在空间分布上有较大的区域差异。丘陵村、近江村和高城镇化区县的村的经济承载人口分别多于山地村、远江村和低城镇化区县的村。2003-2012年，丘陵村、近江村和高城镇化区县的村的经济承载人口逐渐减少，超载率逐年增高，而山地村、远江村和低城镇化区县的村的经济承载人口逐年递增，丘陵村与山地村、近江村与远江村、高城镇化区县的村和低城镇化区县的村两两之间的承载力差距逐渐减小。②从土地资源的农产品产出角度来看，三峡库区人口不超载，但土地资源的食物承载人口在空间分布上同样有较大的区域差异。丘陵村和高城镇化区县的村的承载力分别高于山地村和低城镇化区县的村，而近江村的食物承载人口则低于远江村。③在四种调控方案中，传统发展型方案不利于土地资源的保护和社会经济的发展，经济承载人口最少；经济高速发展型方案中经济发展较快，经济承载人口最多，但是以土地资源的耗费为代价的，食物承载人口最少；土地资源保护型方案不注重经济发展，重视农用地的保护和利用，食物承载人口最多；协调发展方案综合了前三种方案的优缺点，扬长避短，使土地资源与经济社会协调发展，为调控最优方案。 （3）影响经济承载人口数量时空差异的因素包括农村经济增加率、科技人员比重、人口增长率、粮食作物单产、科研投资比重以及地形、与长江的距离、所在区县的城镇化水平等；影响食物承载人口数量时空差异的因素包括农用地增加率、农村居民人均纯收入、科技人员比重、粮食作物单产、农村经济增加率、第二三产业比重以及地形、与长江的距离、所在区县的城镇化水平等。 （4）土地利用和经济协调发展状况逐渐趋向良好，其中：①对于土地利用系统，丘陵村和高城镇化区县的村的得分分别高于山地村和低城镇化区县的村，而近江村的土地系统得分在2003-2011年均略低于远江村；对于经济系统，丘陵村、近江村和高城镇化区县的村的得分分别高于山地村、远江村和低城镇化区县的村，且从2003-2012年，各种类型农村聚落得分表现出增加的趋势。②对于各种类型区，从2003-2012年的协调发展度值均逐年增加，其中丘陵村、近江村和高城镇化区县的村的协调发展度值在十年间均分别高于山地村、远江村和低城镇化区县的村的协调发展度值。③三峡库区农村聚落土地利用-经济协调发展度呈四种表现类型：优良协调发展、一般协调发展、勉强协调发展和一般失调衰退。 （5）在采取积极政策吸引移民外迁的同时，还需依靠区域经济协调发展战略的制定和有力的政策支持缩小地区差距，使农村区域内部的均衡发展受到足够重视，最终逐步缩小丘陵村与山区村，近江村与远江村，高城镇化区县的村和低城镇化区县的村之间的发展差距，实现三峡库区农村聚落人口、社会经济与资源环境的协调发展。|
|Other Abstract||Carrying capacity is an important parameter to measure regional sustainable development. The land carrying capacity is the rigid constraints of sustainable development, and the study of the regional land carrying capacity can provide the basis for sustainable development. There are many mountains and steep slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The particular terrain not only brings a unique natural ecological environment, but also results in less land stock and the scarcity of land reserve resources. Also, the vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems in the Three Gorges reservoir area has been under the excessive pressure of human activity and unnaturally affected for a long time, which leads to the difficulties of land use structure adjustment, low per capita amount, and the quite prominent contradiction between people and land. As the most basic social and economic unit and the most basic unit of social organization of mountainous area, the mountain village occupies a very important position and role in the mountain development. However, the rural settlements of Three Gorges Reservoir Area are with the remote, closed and edge features. These characteristics make the transport, power and communications infrastructure difficult to construct, resulting in the lack of channels of communication between the poverty area and the outside world. The production of subsistence of the outside world is difficult to transport into the region, and the regional resources and products are also difficult to transport to the outside into commodities. Even if shipped outside the region, they are lack of competitive advantage because of the high cost. Within the reservoir area, the economic development in some regions is based on extensive land-use. Although the land-use is conservation in some areas, the economic growth is slow and the land use is not reconciled with economic development.|
Under the premise of a systematic review of the existing literature, starting from the point of the interdisciplinary, making the theories and methods of carrying capacity and geography as the spindle and the typical rural settlement of the Three Gorges reservoir area as the research unit, this study make a deep analysis of the regional economy development and land-use characteristics, to explore the land carrying capacity and the spatial and temporal variation of the rural settlement in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and different types of rural settlement. On this basis, the study focuses on the analysis of the influential factors of the economic- carrying capacity of the rural settlement in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, and the analysis of the coordinated development degree of land-economic system and its spatial and temporal differences. Finally, the mode and the recommendations of the reconstruction and development of rural settlement of Three Gorges Reservoir are proposed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) There were obvious spatial and temporal variation of population, landuse and economic development in 2003-2012 of the rural settlement of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area: ① the average population was the most different between hilly village and mountain village; the population of villages in high urbanization counties and villages near the Yangtze River had a decreasing trend, while that of villages in low urbanization counties and villages far away from the Yangtze River had a increasing trend every year. ② The per capita arable land area of hilly village and the mountain village was identical, but the per capita arable land which could be taken advantage of of the latter amounted to the minimum in all types of villages; the per capita arable land area and the per capita arable land which could be taken advantage of of the villages near the Yangtze River were all larger than those of the villages far away from the Yangtze River. ③ For the total income of the rural economy and the village primary industry income, the hilly village and villages in high urbanization counties were greater than those of the mountain village and villages in low urbanization counties, respectively, and villages near the Yangtze River were below the villages far away from the Yangtze River. From 2003-2012, the primary industry income of the different types of regions were all increasing year by year. ④The proportions of primary industry income of hilly village, villages near the Yangtze River and villages in high urbanization counties were lower than those of mountain village, villages far away from the Yangtze River and villages in low urbanization counties. In 2003-2012, the proportions of primary industry income declined year by year.
(2) The land carrying capacity of the rural settlement in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and different types of rural settlement in 2003-2012 varied greatly: ① in the aspect of the economic output, the population was overloaded, and the spatial distribution of economic- carrying capacity was with obvious differences. In the six types of rural settlements classified by the three standard, the economic- carrying capacity of the hilly village, villages near the Yangtze River and villages in high urbanization counties were higher than that of mountain village, villages far away from the Yangtze River and villages in low urbanization counties. In 2003-2012, the economic- carrying capacity of the hilly village, villages near the Yangtze River and villages in high urbanization counties were gradually reduced, and that of mountain village, villages far away from the Yangtze River and villages in low urbanization counties were gradually increased year by year. ② in the aspect of the agricultural products, the population was not overloaded, and the spatial distribution of food- carrying capacity was also with obvious differences. The food- carrying capacity of the hilly village and villages in high urbanization counties were greater than those of the mountain village and villages in low urbanization counties, respectively, and that of villages near the Yangtze River were less than that of the villages far away from the Yangtze River. ③ under the four control scenarios it could been found that the coordinated development programs which was the optimal solution integrated the first, second and third programs’ advantages and disadvantages, made the land resources and economic and social development coordinated. (3) The influential factors of spatial and temporal difference of economic- carrying capacity included the increasing rate of the rural economy, the proportion of scientific and technical person, population growth rate, food crop yields, the proportion of investment in scientific research as well as the terrain, the distance to Yangtze River and the level of urbanization of the county; the influential factors of spatial and temporal difference of food- carrying capacity included the increasing rate of the rural economy, the proportion of scientific and technical person, food crop yields, the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries，the increase rate of agricultural land, per capita net income of rural residents, as well as the terrain, the distance to Yangtze River and the level of urbanization of the county.
(4) The coordinated development degree of economic development and land-use was gradually improved: ① for the land system, the scores of the hilly village and villages in high urbanization counties were higher than that of the mountain village and villages in low urbanization counties from 2003- 2020, respectively. The scores of all types of rural settlements showed an increasing trend. ②The coordinated development degree of all types of rural settlements showed an increasing trend. The value of the hilly village, villages near the Yangtze River and villages in high urbanization counties are higher than that of the mountain village, the villages far away from the Yangtze River and villages in low urbanization counties from 2003-2012, respectively. ③The coordinated development degree of the typical villages of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area can be classified four performance types: fine coordinated development, general coordinated development, barely coordinated development and general disorders recession.
(5) While taking active measures to attract migrant resettlement, we should also place attention to the rational use of resources, the technological innovation, the adjustment of industrial structure and layout, institutional innovation, the development of recycling economy. The relationship between economic development and land carrying capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area should be stressed, so as to make the economic development within the carrying capacity of land resources. Through the formulation of the regional coordinated economic development strategy and powerful policy support, the healthy development of rural settlements in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area will be ensured, and the coordinated development of population, socio-economic and resource environment of rural settlements in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area will be realized.
|郭仕利. 三峡库区农村聚落土地承载力研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2013.|
|Files in This Item:|
|郭仕利：三峡库区农村聚落土地承载力研究.（11101KB）||开放获取||CC BY-NC-SA||View Application Full Text|
|Recommend this item|
|Export to Endnote|
|Similar articles in Google Scholar|
|Similar articles in Baidu academic|
|Similar articles in Bing Scholar|