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气候变化对青藏高原畜牧业的影响研究
Alternative TitleThe Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the livestock Husbandry In the Tibetan Plateau
Language中文
魏彦强
Thesis Advisor方一平
2013
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline人文地理学
Keyword气候变化 畜牧业 青藏高原 草地生态系统 畜牧经济 脆弱 适应
Abstract近些年来,气候变化及其对地球各个系统的影响以及怎样积极应对、适应气候变化逐渐成为全球的热点话题,并引起了广泛的关注。气候变化对经济系统的影响是怎样的作用机制,其影响的程度和范围如何,怎样制定科学合理的适应气候变化对策是本文探讨的主要内容。由于气候变化对经济系统的影响较为复杂,本文选择气候变化对经济系统影响较为密切的行业——畜牧业作为切入点,以气候变化对青藏高原地区畜牧业的影响为主要研究内容,就青藏高原地区气候变化的时空间格局和特点、气候变化下青藏高原植被变化总体特征、气候变化对草地生态系统载畜量的影响、以及基于此分析的气候变化对畜牧业的影响、气候变化对畜牧经济的综合影响、突发性气候灾害——雪灾对青藏高原畜牧经济的影响及畜牧业脆弱性评价等展开讨论。在综合运用气象数据、遥感影像数据、地面样方数据及社会经济统计数据的基础上,本文利用数学建模、情景分析、GIS空间分析等方法就以上内容开展研究。基于本文的分析初步得出以下结论: (i)基于本文建立的GTEM模型分析,青藏高原地区的气候变化在近些年有逐渐加速的特点,其平均增温率为0.0318/a,且增温与海拔高度有关,即增温的海拔依赖性,在高海拔地区增温较快;季节上冬季和春季增温最快、秋季次之、夏季最低;从空间上来看高原北部的青海湖地区、南部的林芝地区、雅鲁藏布江河谷以及高原西部的高海拔地区暖化速度较快; (ii)基于AVHRR/GIMMS NDVI数据分析显示,青藏高原的东北部、东部及中部地区的草地退化较为显著,而西部、西南部等高海拔地区植被有微弱的恢复;与气候因子中降水、温度的相关性分析显示,高原南部的暖湿化的气候特点有利于植被的生长,而东北部地区的暖干化对植被退化有反馈作用。另外川西北及那曲-拉萨一线地区的植被退化与人为活动增强有关; (iii)随着温度及降水量的增加,整个高原的草地气候生产潜力载畜量将逐渐增加,但从草地地面采集数据回归计算的理论载畜量来看,未来气候变化情景下高原整体上将经历一个先降低后回升的过程; (iv)基于协整理论构建的气候生产函数模型(C-D-C)分析显示,温度和降水对畜牧业总产值的弹性均为负值,分别为-0.293和-0.098,以此对未来情景下气候对畜牧业的影响分析显示,气候变化对青藏高原地区畜牧业产值的增加制约作用较为突出,随着未来气候变化模式的不确定性,畜牧业在气候变化中的风险性也在逐渐加大; (v)基于极端气候事件——雪灾对畜牧业的影响分析显示,青藏高原地区畜牧业脆弱性较高的地区主要集中在青海省东部的青海湖附近地区及南部的玉树、果洛地区;甘肃省的甘南地区、四川省西北部的甘孜、阿坝等地区也是紧邻青海省高脆弱区的地区。这一高风险区一直延伸到西藏自治区的索县、那曲、日喀则等地区,从高原整体来讲,高风险区在地理空间上形成一个自高原东北部至西南部延伸的风险带;广阔的高原西部地区因人畜分布较少而脆弱性较低。 基于对以上各个方面的分析,本文认为以退牧还草、发挥草原生态价值、减轻过度放牧等对草地系统的压力、加强畜牧业基础设施建设、从极端气候风险较高的区域疏散以规避灾害、提高对极端气候灾害的抵御能力、利用太阳能等清洁能源减少畜牧业温室气体排放等措施是适应未来气候变化的根本。
Other AbstractContemporary global warming and its impacts on every system on the earth have received worldwide attention as increasing numbers of climate fluctuations and catastrophes have been reported in recent years. And particularly, however, how to adapt to the changing climate has gotten special focuses and has become a hot issue recently. The paper focuses on the issues of what the mechanism of the impact of climate change on economic system and, to what extent and degree of the impacts, how to draw up useful and scientific strategies to adapt to it. As the impacts on the economic system are complicated, the paper chooses the animal husbandry as the focus as its high sensitivity to climate change. The animal husbandry and pastoral economy in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are studied in the paper. Based on the meteorological data, the remote sensing data, field test data and economic data, the methods of mathematical model analysis, scenario analysis and GIS spatial analysis are used, and the spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the TP, the characteristics of vegetation changes, the livestock carrying capacity, the pastoral economy changes and snow disaster influences on the livestock husbandry under climate change are examined in the paper. The paper concludes that: (i) A generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the TP is constructed. The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318 oC/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. Spatially, the zones in the Qaidam Basin and the southeast of the TP in the Brahmaputra valleys are more prominent during the warming period. (ii) Based on the AVHRR/GIMMS NDVI, the degradations in the northeast TP, the east and central of the TP are more serious than others. However, the vegetation in the west and southwest of the TP with high elevations are improving. The correlation analysis between temperature, precipitation and NDVI shows that the warm-humid climate trend are the main reason of the vegetation increase in these areas. But the cold-dry climate trend in the northeast TP doesn’t favor the vegetation increase in this area. And the degradation around the belt of the northwest Sichuan Province – Nagqu County – Lhasa on the TP are highly connected to the anthropogenic influences, i.e., overgrazing. (iii) The rangeland potential carrying capacity (PCC) in the TP will increase gradually with climate warming but the theoretic carrying capacity (TCC) will decrease at first and recover again in the long run. (iv) Based on the Cobb-Douglas model, the Cobb-Douglas climate change model (C-D-C) has been constructed in the paper. The contributions of temperature and precipitation to livestock husbandry are -0.293 and -0.098, respectively. Based on that, the constraints of climate change on pastoral economy in the TP are prominent in the future. With the uncertainty of the climate change scenario in the future, the predict risk of livestock husbandry in the TP under climate change is increasing. (v) The extreme climate events, e.g., snow disaster, are the other threatens to the livestock husbandry in the TP under climate change. Based on the vulnerability analyses of the livestock husbandry in the TP, the high risk zones are located in the Guoluo and Yushu prefectures in the south of the Qinghai Province. And its east near the Qinghai Lake, the Gannan prefecture in Gansu province and Ganzi, Aba prefecture in the northwest Sichuan province are the other high risk zones. These high risk belt are extended to Shigatse, Nagqu, Sog and its vicinities. So it became a high risk-vulnerable belt from northeast of the TP to southwest. However, the capacious land in the west TP are low vulnerable as the sparsely distributions of people and livestock. From the analyses on the above, the return grazing land to grassland, revaluing the ecological value of the rangeland, preventing overgrazing on the meadowland, enhancing the infrastructures of livestock husbandry, avoiding get into the disaster-prone regions in snow seasons are the main methodology to adapt to the changing environment. On the other hand, the enhancement of the adaptation ability and GHG reduction using clear energy, e.g., abundant solar energy in the TP, are the mitigation method of livestock husbandry adapt to climate change.
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7134
Collection山区发展研究中心
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
魏彦强. 气候变化对青藏高原畜牧业的影响研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2013.
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