IMHE OpenIR  > Journal of Mountain Science  > Journal of Mountain Science-2014  > Vol11 No.6
A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism
Zhang Shao-jie1,2; Wei Fang-qiang2; Liu Dun-long2; Yang Hong-juan2; Jiang Yu-hong2
Corresponding AuthorWEI Fang-qiang
2014
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
ISSN1672-6316
EISSN1993-0321
Volume11Issue:6Pages:1531-1542
SubtypeArticle
AbstractA debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debris-flow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale. This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow. To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model, a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region. Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism, a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established. In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method, the Sichuan province, China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9, 2013 were taken as the study case. According to debris flow disaster data on July 9, 2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province, there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred. The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event. Among these, 43 towns including 204 debris-flow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed. The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of this forecast model were 23% and 19%, respectively. The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods.
KeywordDebris Flow Forecasting Water-soil Coupling Mechanism Watershed
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine
DOI10.1007/s11629-013-2906-z
WOS Subject ExtendedEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
Indexed BySCI
WOS KeywordRAINFALL ; LANDSLIDE ; CHINA ; MODEL ; ALPS
Language英语
Quartile4区
TOP
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000345621100015
Funding Organizationfoundation of the Research Fund for Commonweal Trades (Meteorology)(GYHY201006039) ; International Cooperation Project of the Department of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province(2009HH0005)
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Cited Times:8[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7421
CollectionJournal of Mountain Science_Journal of Mountain Science-2014_Vol11 No.6
山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang Shao-jie,Wei Fang-qiang,Liu Dun-long,et al. A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2014,11(6):1531-1542.
APA Zhang Shao-jie,Wei Fang-qiang,Liu Dun-long,Yang Hong-juan,&Jiang Yu-hong.(2014).A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,11(6),1531-1542.
MLA Zhang Shao-jie,et al."A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 11.6(2014):1531-1542.
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