IMHE OpenIR  > Journal of Mountain Science  > Journal of Mountain Science-2014  > Vol11 No.6
Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach
Bahram CHOUBIN; Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI; Arash MALEKIAN; Sajjad AHMAD; Pedram ATTAROD
Corresponding AuthorSajjad AHMAD
2014-11
Source PublicationJournal of Mountain Science
Volume11Issue:6Pages:1593-1605
AbstractLarge-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed, located in Iran, using a neuro-fuzzy model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as a proxy for drought conditions. Among the 45 climate indices considered, eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), the Bivariate ENSO Time series (BEST), the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature (NINO 3.4), the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature (NINO 4), the North Tropical Atlantic Index (NTA), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA). These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) method. The Atlantic surface temperature (SST: Atlantic) had an inverse relationship with SPI, and the AMM index had the highest correlation. Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.
KeywordAnnual Rainfall Large-scale Climate Signals Neuro-fuzzy Cross-correlation Principal Components Analysis Drought
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7427
CollectionJournal of Mountain Science _Journal of Mountain Science-2014_Vol11 No.6
Corresponding AuthorSajjad AHMAD
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Bahram CHOUBIN,Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI,Arash MALEKIAN,et al. Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(6):1593-1605.
APA Bahram CHOUBIN,Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI,Arash MALEKIAN,Sajjad AHMAD,&Pedram ATTAROD.(2014).Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach.Journal of Mountain Science,11(6),1593-1605.
MLA Bahram CHOUBIN,et al."Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach".Journal of Mountain Science 11.6(2014):1593-1605.
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