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A Model of Debris Flow Forecast Based on the Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism
Zhang, Shaojie1,2; Yang, Hongjuan2; Wei, Fangqiang2; Jiang, Yuhong2; Liu, Dunlong2
Corresponding AuthorWei FQ
AbstractDebris flow forecast is an important means of disaster mitigation. However, the accuracy of the statistics-based debris flow forecast is unsatisfied while the mechanism-based forecast is unavailable at the watershed scale because most of existing researches on the initiation mechanism of debris flow took a single slope as the main object. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a model of debris flow forecast based on the water-soil coupling mechanism at the watershed scale. In this model, the runoff and the instable soil caused by the rainfall in a watershed is estimated by the distributed hydrological model (GBHM) and an instable identification model of the unsaturated soil. Because the debris flow is a special fluid composed of soil and water and has a bigger density, the density estimated by the runoff and instable soil mass in a watershed under the action of a rainfall is employed as a key factor to identify the formation probability of debris flow in the forecast model. The Jiangjia Gulley, a typical debris flow valley with a several debris flow events each year, is selected as a case study watershed to test this forecast model of debris flow. According the observation data of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station, CAS located in Jiangjia Gulley, there were 4 debris flow events in 2006. The test results show that the accuracy of the model is satisfied.
KeywordDebris Flow Forecast Watershed Scale Soil-water Coupling Distributed Hydrological Model Limit Equilibrium Analysis Jiangjia Gulley
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Physical Sciences
WOS Subject ExtendedGeology
Indexed BySCI
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000339462600016
Funding Organizationfoundation of the Research Fund for Commonweal Trades (Meteorology)(GYHY201006039)
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Cited Times:11[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
First Author Affilication中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Shaojie,Yang, Hongjuan,Wei, Fangqiang,et al. A Model of Debris Flow Forecast Based on the Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism[J]. JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCE,2014,25(4):757-763.
APA Zhang, Shaojie,Yang, Hongjuan,Wei, Fangqiang,Jiang, Yuhong,&Liu, Dunlong.(2014).A Model of Debris Flow Forecast Based on the Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism.JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCE,25(4),757-763.
MLA Zhang, Shaojie,et al."A Model of Debris Flow Forecast Based on the Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism".JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCE 25.4(2014):757-763.
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