IMHE OpenIR  > 成都山地所知识仓储(2009年以前)
几种不同类型地区的人口容量研究——以四川省邛崃县为例
姚寿福
Thesis Advisor付绶宁
1990
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name硕士
Degree Discipline自然地理学
Abstract区域人口容量的研究是在70年代初期兴起的一项颇为复杂极其重要的研究课题。区域人口容量系统是一个涉及人口、自然资源、生态环境、社会经济、科技和政策等诸多因素的复合大系统。迄今为止,对区域人口容量的研究,仍无统一的理论基础和精确有效的成熟方法。本文在前人研究的基础上,首先从理论上对区域人口容量的概念、特征、类型和研究意义进行了探讨;并把理论与邛崃县各区域的实际情况相结合,从人口状况、食物、水、能源和其它资源、科技水平、社会机制及生态环境等方面,探讨了制约邛崃县各区域人口容量的诸多因素。进而,尝试性地建立了区域人口容量的衡量指标体系;然后以四川省邛崃县为例,运用系统动力学方法,对邛崃县不同类型区域的人口容量进行了动态模拟分析和定量研究,得出了以下几点结论:1、系统动力学方法以其独特的模拟功能和仿真技术,能够对包括诸多因素的区域人口容量进行综合性的动态模拟研究,表明系统动力学方法是进行区域人口容量研究的较为先进的可行方法。2、限制邛崃县不同区域人口容量提高的,并不是某一种因素,而是各种因素相互作用的结果。3、如果农业投入水平不断提高和科学技术条件持续改善,同时合理开发利用各项资源,则邛崃县各区域的人口容量潜力还是较大的。其中平坝区最大,丘陵区次之,山地区最小。但不可因此而盲目乐观。4、方案II的结果已表明:在小康型生活水平下,除丘陵区外,平坝区和同地区分别可能在2035年和2015年出现超载现象;在富裕型生活水平下,三个区域均会出现超载,超载出现的时间,山地区(2005年)最早,其次是丘陵区(2010年)平坝区为2020年。
Other AbstractThe research on regional popalation capacity was prevailed at initial stage in 1970 S. it's also a very complicated and important question for study. The regional popalation capacity system is a Compound, large System, which covers lots of elements, such as population, natural resources, ecological environment, Society and economy, Science and technology, policy, etc, up to this day, there are no unitary theories and precise, effective, mature methods on the study. Based on the proceeding research, this paper firstly probes into the concept, types, features and significance of regional population capacity study theoretically. Integrated of theory with practice of different region in Qionglai county, inquiring into factors of all kinds that restrict regional population capacity of Qionglai county. Then attempting to constract the judge index system of regional population capacity. Forthermore, appling system Dynamic method and taking QiongLai county, sichuan province as an example, Simalating analyses and quantitative studies the regional population capacity trends of different types in QiongLai county, Obtained following conclusion. 1、System Dynamic method, as its distinctive simulating function and emulating skill, can make comprehensive, trends simulating studies on regional population capacity that covers a lot of complex factors, Which indicates that SD method is helpful tool and fairly advanced means. 2、The improvement of different regional population capacity in QiongLai county, is Limited not by a paticuliar factor, but by all kinds of faciors interacted. 3、Continuously to enhance the put-in level of agricuture, sustainedly to improve the conditions of science and technology, resonably to exploit and use all kinds of resources in the same time, then, there have comparatively great potentialities of different regional population capacity in QiongLai county. Among three regions, the plain area is the greatest, the hill area is the second, the mountain area is the lowest. But we should't be unrealistically optimistic for this. 4、The result of scheme 2 has indicated, that Irving with being fairly well- off level, except the hill area, the plain area and the mountain area shall be capable of exceeding their capacity respectively at the year of 2035 and 2015, that living with prosperous level, all the three region will exceed their capacity, the exceeding time(for year), the mountain area is the earliest (at 2005), the second is the hill area (at 2010), finally, is the plain area (at 2020).
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7762
Collection成都山地所知识仓储(2009年以前)
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
姚寿福. 几种不同类型地区的人口容量研究——以四川省邛崃县为例[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,1990.
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