IMHE OpenIR  > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
川藏公路泥石流灾害风险分析
Alternative TitleRisk Analysis of Debris Flows along Sichuan-Tibet Highways
Language中文
邹强
Thesis Advisor崔鹏
2014
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline自然地理学
Abstract

以川藏公路泥石流灾害为对象,在泥石流灾害遥感调查、现场勘测和数值模拟分析的基础上,利用地理信息技术,建立泥石流灾害专题数据库,研究川藏公路泥石流的空间分布规律、活动特点和致灾特征;综合分析川藏公路泥石流的孕灾条件,构建了泥石流易发性的指标体系和评价模型;综合分析川藏公路典型灾点、典型路段、道路全线3个尺度泥石流灾害的危险性与公路承灾体易损特性,建立了多尺度公路泥石流风险定量分析方法与技术体系,评估公路泥石流综合风险,并编制道路泥石流风险评估软件系统。 论文主要取得以下成果: 1、查明了川藏公路泥石流灾害的空间分布与区域特征,总结了研究区泥石流分布规律、致灾特征及其对交通安全的影响,分析泥石流灾害的空间数据和属性数据的特征,建立了道路泥石流灾害专题数据库,为泥石流风险辨识与风险分析提供数据支持。 2、基于泥石流物质条件、能量条件和地形条件选取关键因子,构建泥石流易发性评价指标体系,引入Logistic回归分析方法与GIS空间分析技术,构建公路泥石流易发性评价模型,为解决泥石流风险辨识过程中“评价单元划分、多源数据同化、关键因子选取和评价模型构建”等关键问题提供有效途径。 3、考虑泥石流危害道路的复合成灾作用和灾害链生效应,采用泥石流动能、泥石流泥深、洪水淹没深度作为评价指标,分析了泥石流的冲击破坏和淤埋破坏能力、堰塞湖回水淹没危险以及堰塞湖溃决洪水的淹没冲毁能力,提出了基于动力过程的泥石流危害公路的危险性定量分析方法。该方法是泥石流复合灾害危险性定量研究的新思路。 4、分析典型灾点、典型路段、道路全线泥石流对公路的致灾特征,厘清泥石流致灾因素和环境背景中的控制因子,建立了单点、路段、全线3个尺度的公路泥石流危险性指标体系与分析模型,实现了不同研究尺度的公路泥石流危险性定量评价与分区。 5、分析泥石流与公路承灾体的空间关系及致灾特征,系统研究公路构筑物的环境敏感性、结构特性、功能影响等易损特性,定量分析公路移动承灾体的随机暴露过程,建立了考虑公路构筑物和移动承灾体的公路易损性定量指标体系和综合评价模型,这是目前对公路工程易损性研究的一次新探索。 6、结合典型灾点、沿河路段、公路全线泥石流风险评估需求,分析典型泥石流的动力过程、河谷路段泥石流的复合成灾过程以及全线泥石流对公路交通的影响,确定了各个尺度泥石流危害公路的关键因子和分析方法,定量评价川藏公路泥石流风险,制作风险分区图,建立了多尺度公路泥石流风险评价方法和技术体系。这是目前较系统地从不同尺度研究交通干线泥石流风险,研究成果将服务于山区道路工程的避灾减灾选线、工程减灾设计、灾害风险管理。 7、研发了道路泥石流灾害风险分析软件系统平台,采用数据层、GIS处理层与服务层三层结构体系,实现泥石流灾害综合数据管理、专题数据分析、泥石流风险辨识、泥石流风险评价、可视化建模与综合制图等子系统间的无缝链接,具有开放性、可移植性、易操作特点,为泥石流风险管理与减灾防灾提供信息化平台支撑。

Other Abstract

Through remote sensing interpretation, field investigation and numerical simulation analysis of debris flows along Sichuan-Tibet highway, we analyzed the spatial distribution, activity and hazard characteristics of debris flow and established a debris-flow database by using geographic information technology. By analyzing debris-flow formation conditions, we proposed a susceptibility evaluation model of debris flow in combination with appropriate susceptible indexes, and then determined the susceptibility zonation in the debris flow-prone areas along Sichuan-Tibet highway. Moreover, through comprehensive analysis of debris flow disaster environment conditions, hazard inducers and hazard-affected objects’ vulnerability characteristics, we proposed a set of multiple spatial-scales debris flow risk analysis methods by adopting debris-flow numerical simulation, flood analysis, RS and GIS technology. In addition, we used the proposed method to evaluate the risk at a local single debris flow, typical section and whole road scale of Sichuan-Tibet highway respectively. The analysis strongly indicated that the calculated risk zones coincide with the actual distribution and severity of damage of the debris flow event, which suggests that the risk assessment generated by the proposed method is consistent with results from the actual disaster. Finally, we developed a software system for risk assessment of debris flows along highways on basis of the above researches and computer programming technology. The thesis mainly achieved the following results 1. Through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation of debris flows along Sichuan-Tibet highway, we identified the spatial distribution of debris flows along Sichuan-Tibet highway. After analyzing the relationships between debris flow distribution and environmental conditions, we determined the distribution rules, hazard characteristics and the effects of debris-flow hazard on highways. And then, we analyzed the futures of spatial data and attribute data of debris flows, we established a debris-flow database, which can manage debris flow datasets and favour debris flow risk assessment and disaster forecasting. 2. According to the formation and evolution characteristics of debris flows along the Sichuan-Tibet highway, we selected crucial susceptibility indexes from material conditions, energy conditions and terrain conditions, and then established a susceptibility evaluation model of debris flow by using Logistic regression analysis method and GIS technology. This proposed method can help to solve some significant issues in disaster identification processes, such as dividing the evaluation units, assimilating multi-source data, selecting key factors and building evaluation model. 3. Taking into account the issue of chain-reaction processes from debris flows and their consequences, we analyzed the compound effects of debris flow events, proposed three quantitative methods of debris hazard assessment, based on kinetic energy, flow depth and inundation depth, and achieved quantitative hazard zonation in debris flow prone area, which provide scientific evidence for individual engineering design of arterial traffic roads. This research provides a new approach to analyze the compound effects of large-scale or simultaneous debris flow events. 4、Through comprehensive research on evaluating debris-flow hazard at a local scale, typical section and overall scale of Sichuan-Tibet highway respectively, we determined the indexes and model of hazard evaluation for each scale of debris flow, and proposed multiple scale hazard analysis methods for debris flows along highways: a) a quantitative method of hazard assessment for a single debris flow, based on kinetic energy, flow depth and inundation depth, b) a quantitative method of hazard assessment for debris flows along riverside highways, based on disaster process of debris flow, c) a regional-scale debris flows hazard assessment method to a whole

Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7836
Collection山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
邹强. 川藏公路泥石流灾害风险分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2014.
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