IMHE OpenIR  > 成都山地所知识仓储(2009年以前)
川藏公路工程病害减灾决策支持系统
Alternative TitleDisaster reduction decision support system against hazards along sichuan-tibet highway
Language中文
李发斌
Thesis Advisor周万村
2003
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline自然地理学
Keyword减灾 决策支持系统 地理信息系统 川藏公路
Abstract山区是各种山地灾害的孕育之地,山区公路易受滑坡、泥石流、崩塌等灾害的威肋、,建立公路工程病害减灾决策支持系统不但能够辅助交通部门和决策者制定科学的减灾对策,进行合理的减灾规划,同时也能为其它线性工程山地灾害的研究和防治了提供可资借鉴的经验。本文以地理信息系统和数据库技术为基础,以川藏公路典型灾害地段-帕隆藏布流域为主要研究对象,探讨了建立公路减灾决策支持系统的方法和实现技术。本文的主要内容包括:1.道路减灾决策支持系统的设计,在综合分析了国内外减灾决策支持系统研究进展的基础上,结合川藏公路工程病害减灾的特点和需求,确立了系统开发的目标、原则、内容以及系统的整体结构和功能,建立了系统综合和集成的方法。文中突破了在现有GIS软件上进行定制和功能扩展的传统开发思路,首次提出了以组件式地理信息系统(COMGIS)作为开发减灾决策支持系统主要平台的开发模式。2.滑坡稳定性分析,总结了滑坡稳定性分析的必要条件,对常用的稳定性分析方法中力平衡和力矩平衡与稳定系数的关系进行了探讨,并由此提出了选取分析模型的方法。系统集成的分析模型主要是采用极限平衡法的二维分析方法,包括费伦纽斯法、简化毕肖普法、扬布法和萨玛法。3.泥石流活动性分析,泥石流活动性分析本质上是一种模式识别,用神经网络进行泥石流活动性分析在逻辑上是合理的。建立了较系统的泥石流活动性分析指标体系和 BP神经网络模型,并把该模型用于川藏公路沿线冰川泥石流的活动性分析,取得了较好的结果。这是对用传统数学方法分析具有随机性和模糊性特点的泥石流活动性的有效改进。4.泥石流危险范围预测与危险性分区,系统根据泥石流运动方程和流团模型模拟计算泥石流在堆积扇上的运动泛滥过程,并计算出泥石流的危险范围以及泥石流的泥深、速度、动量和动能等物理参数,并建立了以它们为指标的分区方法,为泥石流堆积扇危险度分区、土地规划以及公路铁路选线提供重要的决策依据,从而使泥石流危险度分区能够更紧密地与减灾工程实际相结合。5.泥石流拦砂坝的优化设计,系统分析并建立了基于GIS的拦砂坝优化设计模型,该模型把拦砂坝的优化设计看作一个非线性规划问题,以坝体的结构稳定性为主要约束条件,以达到投资库容比最小为目标,采用对不同坝高的投资库容比进行试算的方法实现了拦砂坝重要参数的优化设计,得到不同条件下拦砂坝的最优参数。在GIS技术支持下,模型能够准确地模拟泥石流沟和坝址处的形状,计算所得的拦砂坝体积、库容和其它参数更加准确,模型的结果也更加可靠。6.滑坡区公路整治方案的优选,将滑坡区的公路整治作为灰色系统,对一般的灰色关联度模型进行了改进,建立了方案优选的灰色关联度改进模型。模型在对整治方案进行优选决策时考虑了多个影响因素,把每个设计方案看作指标空间中的一个离散的方案点,计算各方案与绝对最佳方案的关联度,最后根据关联度优选出最佳方案。论文的创新工作主要有:(l)本系统是国内第一个完全拥有自主知识产权的、针对公路工程病害尤其是泥石流的减灾决策支持系统;(2)建立了泥石流运动方程、流团模型和GIS技术相结合的泥石流危险范围预测和危险性分区模型;(3)建立了基于GIS的泥石流拦砂坝优化设计模型;(4)实现了多种软件功能和界面的无缝集成。
Other AbstractHighways in mountainous areas are easy to be endangered by such mountain hazards as debris flows, landslides and rock falls. To set up disaster reduction decision support system against hazards (DRDSSAH) along highway, which is based on geographical information system (GIS) and database technology, is able not only to assist the transportation departments and decision makers to shape the rational countermeasures of disaster reduction, but also to provide experiences for studying and combating mountain hazards along other linear engineering. Taking the typical section with many disasters of Sichuan-Tibet highway as an example, we discussed the methods and techniques to establish the DRDSSAH along highways. The main contents of this paper include: 1. Design of DRDSSAH along highways. On the basis of analyzing the internal and overseas improvements of DRDSSAH and considering the specialty and demands of mitigating hazards along Sichuan-Tibet highway, we established objectives, principles, contents, structure and functions of the system and founded the methods of system integration. In this paper, we put forward for the first time the developing mode that component object model GIS (COMGIS) is used as main platform for developing disaster reduction decision support system. 2. Analysis of landslide stability. After having summed up the prerequisites to landslide stability analysis and discussed the relationship between force equilibrium and moment equilibrium in the commonly used methods, the general method of selecting analysis model was bring forward. The models integrated in the system include such limit equilibrium methods as Fellenius, simplified Bishop, Janbu and Sarma. 3. Analysis of debris flow active degree. Analysis of debris flow active degree is essentially a kind of pattern recognition and so it is reasonable to use neural network to analyze active degree of debris flows. The analysis model of BP neural network has been set up in the system and has been used to analyze active degree of glacial debris flows along Sichuan-Tibet highway. 4. Risk prediction and zoning of debris flow. According to movement equations and particle model of debris flow, a versatile numeric model based on GIS has been established to simulate the process of debris flow deposition and diffusion. Using this model, some physical factors including mud depth, velocity, momentum and kinetic energy are calculated and introduced into risk zoning in order to assist landuse planning and assignment of railway and highway. 5. Optimization of sediment-trapped dam design. Optimization of sediment-trapped dam design is a non-linear planning issue, which target is to decide major parameters of the dam under some constraint conditions so as to reach maximum ratio between investment and benefit. Investment is in connection with height, width of top and bottom of the dam, and dam structure while benefit is measured using the volume of the sediment trapped by the Dam. The major constraint conditions are to make the dam meet the security demand. By calculating the ratio of investment against benefit of the dam in different height, the sizes which satisfy not only constraint conditions but also planning targets are decided as optimal sizes. 6. Decision of optimal highway renovation scheme. Decision of optimal renovation scheme of highway across landslides is to choose the best one from scheme set based on comparison of their costs and benefits. The multi-objective grey relevant optimized decision-making model of highway renovation has been set up. In the model, each scheme is a discrete point in the index space and the absolute optimal scheme point is a suppositional point that consists of optimal values of each index in all schemes. By calculating correlation and weighted relevant degree between each point and absolute optimal scheme point using grey relevant analysis, the optimal scheme is decided through comparison of weighted relevant degree. The main renovations in this paper include: (1) DRDSSAH along Sichuan-Tibet highway, of which we possess fully independent property rights, is the first DRDSSAH along highways in China; (2) The risk zoning model of debris flow, which integrates debris flow movement equations, particle model and GIS technology, has been established; (3) The model of optimal design of sediment-trapped dam, which is on the basis of GIS, has been set up; and (4) The integration of functions and interfaces of different software packages has been realized.
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/8042
Collection成都山地所知识仓储(2009年以前)
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李发斌. 川藏公路工程病害减灾决策支持系统[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2003.
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